As I've previously written about, the DeFi vs. Bitcoin/Altcoin season has been all the FOMO and as a result of downward market movement, I sold my entire portfolio while I was in the positive two days ago.
Now, I sit and wait. How does one determine when to invest, drops can keep on dropping, sometimes in a split second, sometimes in a day, a week, a month - or longer.
I am going to go back to a combination of social demand and token purposes backed by the strength of their individual followings.
BAT is in a somewhat precarious position due to ETH gas fees & Bitcoin (BTC) isn't done yet.
A lot of DeFi tokens are suffering, some even more than Bitcoin and the altcoin market; so to call the Altcoin Season prediction accurate would be moronic at best.
People started dumping because of the FOMO and honestly, we were due for it after the 12K pump.
Also, Ethereum gas fees are really starting to **** everyone the **** off.
It is beyond out of hand at this point as people cannot use the coin due to the gas fees and many tokens operate off of Ethereum which also makes those tokens (mostly) useless due to gas fees.
Take a look at me trying to withdraw some ad-click earnings in Uphold a moment ago, the transaction fees are outrageous and this is honestly the only thing I've ever seen that has made me worry for Basic Attention Token's future:
Ethereum is in trouble, and with good reason. It's far more expensive to send it than it's worth. Literally.
If ETH 2.0 cannot find a fix for that, things like XLM and/or Nano may take off out of nowhere.
The practical purposes of some coins/tokens are eventually going to overwhelm the ineptitude of the others, as you can see Publish0x couldn't even afford the ridiculous gas hit this week. At this point, I'd take all of my payout in LRC just so I could wave my ChangeNOW wand and turn it into something useful.
I would propose a hardfork with Nano and remove gas fees entirely. Tell me that wouldn't be the most tits-awesome PoW coin ever, and all tokens powered by it would also be gas-free!
They could optionally add in staking options...that's my dream coin.
I've kept my Statera Project investment/experiment on the back-burner in MetaMask. It's still in a nice profit range, but it would cost more to cash it out than to leave it where it is...seems like a trap, unless it goes exponential - but I guess that's how it goes at first.
So, I am looking for highly useful tokens such as Basic Attention Token (BAT), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Nano (NANO), and looking away from typical Bitcoin and altcoin trends; in fact, the current rates don't even matter that much as they are relative to the gains you will get in the future, you don't cash out the next day unless you're flipping - and I just might if the numbers tell me too.
Waiting for Tezos to hit rock bottom, currently watching it idle at $2.70 USD which is considerably lower than what I sold it for, but back to the point of relativity, buying before it completely tanks would be a disaster, most likely.
So my goal here is to watch the news for trends, feel how communities react to the FOMO, and then start to determine which few tokens I am going to watch like a hawk for drops until I see resistance so strong it's indicative of having bottomed out. This is risky, but, it's not rocket science.
Something I always keep in mind is that when I am watching % gains in real-time, I realize I am far from the only one. There is -always- someone out there looking to sell for more or buy for less. Facts.
For this reason, market chokepoints are more predictable than you'd think in the short-term. The long-term is nothing but a question mark. The reason why is simple: People are going to dump the moment it becomes profitable, at least - a lot of them will.
This is where you'll see green and red bars go to war on CoinbasePro; it illustrates the "willingness" of people on each side of the market to lean towards the middle, or the mid-market price.
I've found 8 to 12 percent is a sweet spot for typical flippers in the Bitcoin/Altcoin market and in DeFi it's typically 10-25%. You can see the appeal from a flipper's point of view, but how can you ever trust HODL'ing your money in something so up and down? I couldn't be that stupid.
Maybe once DeFi crowns a king, then I will feel safe with it. The reality is, even the economy is in trouble - none of our money is safe, not even in a hardware wallet.
The current chokepoint on Tezos is $2.50; I feel it will fall lower, though you'll notice the resistance hits close to home around 10-12% per day as I mentioned before. This can be a slow process with bears and bulls, it's a very fast process with far greater gains and losses when the whales splash around.
My cash out was somewhat random. I mean, I had a feeling I was about to see a dump by looking at the graphs and feeling a weak market, but one of my best friends since childhood overdosed and died and I had just found out about it. So, I was too emotionally out of it to worry about the markets and decided to cash everything out as a way to put my worries to rest a little. He'd been clean a long time and slipped up. He was a good friend.
My target goal with Tezos is $2.78 for the -next- drop. Now, when I speak of chokepoints, I don't imagine there is only one, quite a few, in fact, and this is just a visual representation:
Any time the market has made a substantial move you are bound to see more market resistance. For example, if the price falls to $2.78 and doesn't rebound, the first circle left to the arrow demonstrates the next spot you would be likely to meet buyer and seller resistance, and so on.
The reason for this is when you see a hard spike like that it's when a bunch of people invested, so they are not going to want to go below that point and as soon as they clear some-odd % in the positive it is viable to sell for profit.
I watch several tokens at once and wait for the best opportunities. Sometimes, there isn't any. Patience is key.
This is not exact and the markets are volatile so they do defy this routinely, but the majority of the time, you can find the method in the madness, and it's all in percentages and decimals... with a splash of FOMO.
So, I hope I pick the right chokepoint when I invest. Typically, a huge movement is when I am on the tip of my toes and about to take a real chance!
I'm making it through my first week of full-time work and school and doing pretty well, but I pass out at like 5-7 pm and that's lame! I finished all of my classes and I'm done with work until next Tuesday due to Labor Day. Cheers!
Stay smart & Stay safe everyone.
Questions and comments are always welcome!
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