A recent Berggruen Institute's Tre Oci Council meeting discussed the evolving world order and the role Europe could play in shaping it. The participants, including former prime ministers, technology entrepreneurs, and intellectuals, concluded that the world is no longer converging or diverging but exists in a state of conflict over the extent of integration. The United States is no longer strong enough to impose a global order, while China is not yet dominant. The group highlighted the importance of hard and soft power in shaping the relationship between the two powers.

The concept of empire was discussed, acknowledging that Europe remains too fragmented to act as a coherent entity. The group suggested renovating the current multilateral order to avoid a disintegration into multiple systems. They proposed increasing China's voting quota in international institutions like the World Bank and IMF as long as the US retains veto power. They also considered establishing new inclusive multilateral organizations to address emerging challenges.

The participants emphasized the need to manage the strategic competition between the US and China. They discussed the idea of "managed competition" across various fronts, including trade and technology, rather than a narrow focus on military dimensions. They also called for strategic assurance to China regarding Taiwan, avoiding reckless rhetoric that could escalate tensions. Most Taiwanese prefer the status quo, and provocative actions could endanger them.

Europe was seen as a potential moderator of US-China conflicts due to its globalized nature and economic ties with both powers. Most Europeans view China differently from Russia, and Europe's neutral position could contribute to easing tensions. The participants suggested that China could recover its lost soft power by cooperating on critical global issues, such as the conflict in Ukraine. They also discussed the influence of censorship on large language models and the need for regulation in AI development.

Recommendations included renovating the UN system, convening a conference of leading AI technologists to establish consensus on ethical boundaries, Europe acting as a moderator between the US and China, and making a case for joint global action.

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