My Thoughts on Current Markets-189

By Biologist25 | Tech. Analysis | 11 Sep 2024


After testing around 17100 in DAX, it is currently at 19000 levels and we are testing the peak. In other words, if closings above 19000 begin, I can say that the movement here will be expected to continue, and in possible corrections, the first support level that we should pay particular attention to is 18800, and then the levels around 18600 will be followed as important support levels.

Dow Jones closed at the peak for the first time. This also needs to be noted. They have completed the letter V in this region. Especially if closings above 41500 continue, the 42000 - 42500 band will continue to be the target here. In possible pullbacks, if 41500 is broken, a pullback towards the 41200 - 41000 band is expected, and our level that is already following us at 41000 is waiting. As long as this range is not broken, there will still be upward potential on the Dow Jones side, I can also say that.

Gold has also been stalling at the peak levels it has been testing for a few days, even 1-2 weeks. In other words, the 2520-2530 band has become resistance here. The reactions that come are generally turning into sales here. Especially, interest rate cuts here may cause sales, it may cause an expectation-ending movement. In this respect, as long as the 2520-2530 range is not exceeded in the short term, it will be difficult to talk about a clear upward movement. If the 2500s are broken in the short term, I will expect a pullback to the 2470-2420 band here. In other words, if the 2520-2530 range continues not to be exceeded in the short term, I can say that the downward pressure here will gradually increase, the correction pressure will gradually increase.

There is no deterioration in the figure on the ounce gold daily chart. There has been a medium-term upward movement in the Fibonacci channel since July, but the short term is a bit like this, there is a horizontal upward movement below this resistance at 2559 and above 2550. In fact, there is a channel discipline. In general, the main medium-term trend that continues to stay above 2445 - 2402 will maintain its short-term targets of 2559 and 2639. Also, if we look from a short-term trading perspective, it will be important whether it falls below 2480 unless or until 2559 is passed. I will follow the 2480 level in terms of whether a downward correction, a short-term up-and-down movement within the medium-term uptrend will be triggered.

It tested these levels on Monday, but from there it passed above 2500 again. Therefore, the uptrend will continue within the general framework of 2559 and 2445. The pullbacks that will occur towards 2445 - 2402 before 2559 is passed should not be considered as a risk. However, if such a thing happens, it can be read as a relative opportunity. In the horizontality between 2559 and 2480, a momentum that investors want, writing money in the portfolio, the satisfaction point will be triggered by 4 hours above 2559 and the expected momentum with the target of 2639 at the daily close. A new exit curve is like the one in August. An exit movement will start here. There will be a little delay until 2559 is passed. This chart has a potential gold rate target area at 2741.

There was a squeezed price for ounce silver from August 2021 to early 2024. It was tightly squeezed in the $20 band with about $28. Then, we got rid of the strongly narrowing triangle and came to Fibonacci 1.272. Those who wanted to get off the bus got off. They put this place into a correction. Now we passed the falling one here, we went to 1.272. Now a complex pullback scenario is forming here. There is no trend here, there is trade. When the trend passes 31.6, it will turn into a trend towards 35.5 and/or above. As a result, silver will go back and forth in the 26.28 - 31.60 band. In terms of risk analysis, I think that silver falling towards 26.28 - 24.90 will again be a relative opportunity zone for 31.66 short-term, long-term 35.5 targets in the next step.

There is a relatively weak double bottom right now. A new exit curve in silver that will make investors talk about silver will trigger a strong 35.5 target above 31.66. Until 31.66 is passed, 31.66 above, 26.28 below, maximum 24.90 is not a trend but a trade zone. If this chart retreats towards 26.28 - 24.90, especially 24.90, I will read it positively. Unless an area like 26.28 - 25 is broken, it would not be a very correct and rational strategy to play in the head and shoulders formation, but if it is broken, especially long trading should be stopped there.

In Brent oil, the reactions coming from the bottom are first the lower Bollinger is tested, the bottom is made, then the movement up to the 78 - 80 range, then the approach to that lower Bollinger again, then the 78 - 80 range is tested, despite the 78 - 80 range being tested for 4 - 5 days, it cannot be exceeded and a sale is brought about. Ultimately, it brings a sale, especially if 76 falls here, a movement towards 74 will be expected again. If 76 will be support, in order for me to say that we have clearly turned upwards, we need to close at least above 79 in the short term. If we can achieve this, a return to positive in the short term can be observed, 80 - 82 and then a movement towards 85. But I think that as long as 79 is not exceeded in the short term, we should not have a very clear expectation of an increase.

Bitcoin is doing a perfect mathematical Fibonacci study. After falling from 69000 to 49000, the Fibonacci 78.6 of this exit was 65200. The buyback ended at 78.6. I had stated that the exit here could be corrected up to Fibonacci 61.8 - 78.6, and it happened, it came to 52400. They crushed it to 78.6 and lifted it to a reaction from 78.6. 52400 - 65200 is this intermediate trade. Bitcoin has turned its approximately 20-day movement since 65200 into a reaction at 78.6 of its last exit movement. An investor who is currently trading the movement upwards can try an upward cautious trade with a target of 61300 by placing a definite stop below 52400 and / or the maximum risk 51300.

If 52400 and / or 51300 is broken without going to 61300, the target of 61300 shown by technical analysis will not be fought, what is necessary will be done. Because the market is not a mechanism that works in one direction. You determine a target area, you determine your stop with if conditions. You stay focused on the target as long as those conditions are not broken. But if the ground is broken, you will know how to turn flexibly with the price. If you can't turn, while you wait for 61300, they introduce you to 45700. The result is 52400 - 51300 bitcoin's short-term support area. As long as it stays above this support area, a reaction attack towards 61300 can be followed with very controlled optimistic weights. The 61300 target falls off below 51300.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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