My Thoughts on Current Markets-142

My Thoughts on Current Markets-142

By Perfectionist25 | Tech. Analysis | 3 Jul 2024


Looking at the daily ounce gold chart, we are stuck between the 89-day moving average and the short-term falling trend. So we are stuck in the 2342 - 2295 band. We are looking for a decision. Now, I continue to read the relatively positive side of staying above 2295 here. Because I read it positively if it is above the 8-day, 55-day and 89-day moving averages, that is, above 2295. The important thing here is; We have not yet passed the drop that we have tested 2-3 times since 2448. Therefore, yes, being above 2295 is relatively positive, but relief cannot come and relief cannot begin until it exceeds 2342. We will pass 2342 and close above it, and if this is passed, a more ambitious and satisfying trend story will begin again towards 2411 - 2448 and maybe even higher. Therefore, the ounce rests in the 2295 - 2342 band and - or continues its horizontal correction inside the triangle. If we look at the temporality of the triangle, temporality is filled.

There will be a breakout from the 2342 - 2295 band in a few days. As long as it stays above 2295 while managing the breakout, it seems that it will try to be in an upward discipline with a target of 2342 and 2411. If a risk is to be triggered here, it will be triggered below 2295 towards 2219 - 2179. The 2295 - 2342 band is a relatively positive and - or flat region. There may be a serious momentum attempt below 2342. Because there is a compression, an energy accumulation here. Above 2342 the energy starts with positive polarity. It goes upwards towards 2411 - 2448. If you are trading long, you manage the risk below 2295. If you are in a short trading discipline, you manage the risk with a stop above 2342. Technical analysis gives these specific scales. But let's look at it from the book's side. Let's look at it in terms of triangles and possible break directions. Before I get to that detail, let me remind you this. It doesn't matter if the triangle gets stuck. A triangle is formed here. A breakthrough will come in a few days. The stop points of long or short are clear, but since the formation of triangles means that there will still be risks in determining the direction correctly, according to the breakout, that is, before 2342 is passed, it cannot be said that the triangle broke up. If 2295 is broken, it is said that the triangle is broken down. That's how we will manage discipline.

But if the triangle squeeze connects it to the triangle with a flow coming from below, if it comes from below and creates a triangle, this is a continuation formation. The possibility of an upward break is one step ahead, it is resting horizontally because it is there. If the maturity of the triangle is short, it is equal to the pennant. If the triangle had formed by falling from above rather than from below, then there would be a high probability of it breaking down. Therefore, since it is coming from below and resting, there is a high probability of it breaking upwards. However, be careful, even though we have a possible discipline in our hands, the risk of breaking below 2295 should be disciplined. Because in technical analysis, work is not done based on probability, there must be risk management.

Bitcoin's rise from 56000 to 71700 on the daily chart, or more precisely the decline from 74000 to 56000, made a reaction. Now pay attention, there was an attack towards the falling trend towards 71500 about 20 days ago. The decline, which has been occurring for about 20 days since 71500, stopped first at the rising trend line and secondly at Fibonacci 78.6 of the 56500 - 71700 exit. This means; I said that as long as it stays above 59800 - 55600, there may be a relatively unsafe reaction movement between 65000 - 66000. Now he's trying it but he's still insecure. Result 59800 is important and critical support for the short term. Therefore, it is relatively positive for bitcoin to remain above 59800. However, reactions should be managed cautiously unless they exceed 71500. Even if it passes 71500, it will continue to rise, but bitcoin is looking for a reaction in the 59800 - 71500 band. To make this reaction a little more meaningful for investors, we stopped at the 89-day moving average.

So now this moving average that's keeping us busy there is passing through 64200. Therefore, it is relatively positive for bitcoin to remain above 59800. If it exceeds 64200, it will maintain its upward discipline with a little more appetite and at a more comfortable pace towards 71500. It can be disciplined as 64000 intermediate resistance, intermediate target, 71500 short term targets of bitcoin. In the closing below 59800, the 64200 and 71500 targets are postponed in time and a new sales wave may be faced with the risk that the correction in the trading discipline will expand towards 55000 dollars. In this sense, 59800 should be followed as a pivot support or trailing stop loss zone.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

 

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Tech. Analysis
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