It seems every one is seeking $BTC bottom and trying to time it while main stream media as always trying to promote something that might not happen. In trading world weather its Stocks Forex or Crypto 90% of people fail to make money and informtion is one of many causes for that. There is information for masses and like wise information for classes. It's you who needs to decide where do you belong. Second reason is the emotional attachement with money, it causes panic sell off FOMO (fear of missing out) and what not. If you are a trader you need to stay level headed other wise your emotions will kill the money.
So nothing is certain here the only term is RISK vs REWARD or probablity of an asset to move higher or lower in price based on technical analysis and fundamentals behind the asset. Let's see here what are the probabilties of a bottom for bitcoin with every logical understanding that helps to clearify the probabilty of the asset price.
So as you see here we have a monthly chart of $BTC/USD. We have our FIB retracement right to the point where we started our previous bull run. Right now we have retraced back to below 0.786 FIB level. First of all what you see is the "Kiss of Death" meaning we broke the 21 monthly moving average to the downside. Next you see the black line called out as current resistance which was our first support and we broke and then went on to test it again but got rejected suggesting that we may go further to the down side. So following logic we go and analyze next suport channel which has acted as three months of resistance and two moths of support previously. With this type of consolidation we are bound to get a bounce from that level meaning it's going to be very hard to break that support level. It opens for us a channel in between the support and resistance as you can see a long triangle which is the bouncing area, it starts at $2800 and goes down to $2300 approximatley. It can be concluded that 3150 which was our last low could be the bottom and may be in coming moths we could see it going down to 2800 which would look like a wick in the monthly chart OR we could go down to make 2800 the bottom and a wick going down to 2300 level. Now this is not just based on the these indicators and analysis, history supports it. See the below given chart.
Isn't it fascinating? As you see here we have followed the same pattern almost identically and as logic goes, if 90% of something is 100% true then it is safe to assume that the remaining 10% will prove itself in due time. Now if you are a HODLER as they say in Crypto world then I don't think it matters to buy in at $2000 or $5000 because considering the fact how scarce the asset is, it's only a matter of time.
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