Assuming we survive this catastrophe that is unfolding I wonder how history will judge the ineptitude of western democratic leadership.
Sanctions don't work - ask the Iranians some time.
In March 1936 Nazi Germany sent soldiers into the demilitarised Rhineland, which was expressly forbidden by Versailles. Hitler himself admitted that if the democracies had reacted he'd have turned tail and run.
The democracies did nothing.
Emboldened, a few days later Hitler joined his Reich with Austria, in the Anschluss - again expressly forbidden by Versailles.
Again The democracies did nothing.
Next, in September 1938 Hitler turned his attention to the Sudeten Germans declaring they should join the Reich.
The democracies acceded to his demands and stripped the Czechs of any defensive fortifications they had and any chance of holding back the Germans.
In March 1939 Hitler annexed the body of Czech and came to an accommodation with Slovakia. For the first time he absorbed non-German Territories into the Reich.
The democracies agreed, but insisted it should be his last territorial claim. Hitler signed a paper in which he agreed (he never honoured a single piece of paper in his life). Secretly they were worried they were behind Germany when it came to rearming.
After securing his Eastern flank with Russia Hitler invaded Poland and the democracies (France and Britain) finally declared war,,,
and then did nothing...
Well actually that's not quite true. The RAF dropped leaflets and the French invaded Germany (yes that's right they did) but only far enough to remain under the cover of their own artillery mainly from the Maginot Line.
Hitler calculated the west would do nothing and he almost got it right. However with most of Germany's military focused on Poland they were left dangerously undermanned on their Western flank. Forget the British, but even if the French had behaved more decisively (while the BEF was getting organised) Hitler would have been forced to move many divisions west (and probably for speed his best motorised divisions). This would have relieved some of the pressure on the Poles and just maybe history would have been very different.
Speculatively, Russia might have held back and the war would have become one dominated by the western front.
Again political dithering and ineptitude prevented this scenario from ever having a chance.
At least that time they had no idea.
What's the excuse of the current generation?
Putin picks a fight with tiny little Georgia - the west do nothing.
Putin annexes Crimea (For a long time i have been comparing this to the Anschluss but maybe it is more accurately like the taking of the Sudetenland)
The democracies imposed sanctions. Putin doesn't care.
He systematically and ruthlessly surrounds Ukraine and the democracies sit and watches. He fabricated a narrative for sending "peacekeepers" that is so bad that it makes the story of the Gliwice Radio station attack look more believable (the pretext Hitler used to invade Poland). Within 24 hours these "peacekeepers" are on the offensive as are a significant part of the Russian military.
Protecting Russians in Donbass - my arse. Why are they heading for Kyiw then?
Nato is sitting and watching while figuratively speaking as the Czechs lost the Sudetens and their line of defence Ukraine is being massacred and the cost is not just that of Ukraine but of the whole security apparatus of Europe.
Biden says he will not commit American troops as he doesnt want Americans fighting Russians. Fair enough, but short term peace can lead to a greater war in the end.
We saw it in microcosm in Kosovo.
Clinton refused to commit American ground forces and Milosevic sat there and decided to hold out. Blair worked on Clinton (this was when he was a half decent leader before 9/11 and Iraq) until Clinton said the option was now on the table. Milosevic almost immediately capitulated.
Yes, we fear nukes and World War 3, my family and I are too close for comfort to the conflict if it spreads and are already making an evac plan. A friend of ours has already fled Kyiv with her family after being too close to the bombs two nights ago.
Putin seems hellbent on this being our fate anyway. Maybe he is dying and wants to send the world to hell with him.
I repeat, Ukraine is the 2022 version of the Sudetens and as Czech was stripped of a chance to defend itself so Europe is now exposed.
And the democracies are selling Ukraine down the river.
So if we survive this hell, will future historians view our current generation of leaders how we view Chamberlain, and we all know what happened to 'peace in our time' = 50 million dead.
And this promises to be much much worse.
