Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/ZxDUjFUdBRQCD_6V

The Russian Ruble's Bearish Trend - Technical Indicators Speak for Themselves

The recent bearish trend of the Russian Ruble is largely reflected in various technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum oscillators, which show a continuous weakening of the currency. For example, the Ruble is trading below key moving averages such as the 50-day and 200-day, indicating a sustained downward momentum. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels show that the Ruble is in oversold territory, further confirming the overall bearish sentiment.

These technical indicators are not just abstract financial data, but also point to fundamental weaknesses in the Russian economy. Sanctions and restrictive economic policies of Western countries have created significant obstacles to trade and capital inflows. As a result, the weakening of the Ruble negatively affects the cost of imports, increasing inflationary pressures at home and simultaneously reducing the competitiveness of Russian exports in global markets. The country’s reliance on commodity exports, especially oil, exacerbates these vulnerabilities, and energy price volatility exacerbates tensions.

The technical signals are consistent with broader economic indicators that illustrate Russia’s deepening economic problems. Limited access to foreign markets and technology due to sanctions and the inability to raise capital through international bonds limit growth prospects. In a context of ongoing geopolitical isolation, these economic difficulties point to a continued weakening of the ruble, reflecting broader systemic problems in the Russian economy.

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In this publication we will talk about the Russian ruble from a technical point of view, I believe that the technical point of view is very important because it shows what is happening behind the scenes, in terms of forecasting. Therefore, I believe that technical data is a kind of leading indicator. Let's look at the Russian ruble from a technical point of view. We will look at the technical data, and then we will analyze why it is so important, and then we will finish with something interesting. Let me say right away that in the publications I am not going to overwhelm you with terms, graphs and diagrams, numbers and equations, I try to explain the topic as simply as possible so that it is understandable to everyone, especially for those people who are not professionally involved in economics.

There are technical indicators such as the simple moving average SMA and the exponential moving average EMA. These are technical analysis tools that help identify market trends. These are indicators that show the average closing price of an asset over a certain number of time periods. These are very important indicators that provide important information for a trader. So, the SMA for 50 days is 0.1085. And the 100-day moving average is 0.1107. So you have a 100-day moving average and a 50-day moving average. And this is below the current price of 0.139. You can check these calculations yourself, because I base them on empirical data. Currently, the ruble is trading below the 50-day moving average, and in fact, it is below the 200-day moving average. You should never buy an asset trading below the 200-day moving average, any stock broker will tell you that. You can be emotionally attached to a stock or to the ruble, say that they fall and rise. But you know, in this case, the indicators fell quite a lot, not that much, but the fact remains on the trends. I would recommend you to read Stan Weinstein's books if you want to be aware of the understanding of trading, in particular, "Secrets of Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets". So, the relative strength index RSI (a technical analysis indicator that determines the strength of a trend and the likelihood of its reversal) is 41.22, which is not very good, and shows a "bearish" market sentiment. The volatility index is one of the most key indicators, it is 2.6 on a daily basis and 14.7 per month. This is a very volatile currency, it is very unstable, it is like an unstable pulse in a living being. Unstable impulses most often end in a stop. Technical indicators tell us that the ruble against the US dollar, and also against the Chinese currency, remains open and this is the trend. The trend is your friend, giving you an idea of ​​the direction. When you walk down the street, you see people walking towards you, they may sometimes turn around impulsively, but they are walking in their direction because they are in the trend, that is, they have a reason why they are walking in this direction. And the moral of the story is that trends, trends always tell us what is happening behind the scenes. If the board of directors selling shares says that any information should remain behind closed doors, nevertheless, you can notice the movement of stock prices or unstable technical indicators thanks to trends. "Buy on bad news, sell on good news" is a proverb, because a technical indicator is by its nature a leading indicator, by the time it is in a trend. Unlike news, which is the lowest form of information and wisdom, because such information appears when everything is over and the trend is declining. This means that those who want to make money, they get rid of the ruble, but it also means that right now in Russia there is a problem, the problem is that the Central Bank is running out of currency and they cannot support the ruble, and they cannot support such a standard mechanism that must always be balanced, like "import and export". If you remember the international system of Bretton Woods, behind which the door was later closed by Richard Nixon, a standard in which the stability of the exchange rate was conceived, an international system that replaced the gold standard, so under the Bretton Woods system the United States had a large degree of parity in international trade. But now, under a flexible exchange rate, which is an important argument, Russia cannot control imports. Also, Russia has relations with China, and what happens between China and Russia is done in Chinese currency. As for BRICS, this community is completely irrelevant, BRICS is nothing. If we go back to Carl Menger's "On the Essence and Origin of Money", we will learn that money is a medium of exchange, it influences the positive path of economic development when it acts as a cipher, when there are barter exchange relations, when money seems not to exist and a monetary macro equilibrium is created. If not, then a violation occurs in the money market, which creates systemic effects in the economy. The real sector and technical indicators point to the instability of the monetary system, creating shocks in the real sector, which is a feedback mechanism and the end result. The resistance to this mechanism is the kopeck, which can resist, can flirt, but will ultimately go under the resistance that destroys it. Based on the model using technical indicators and moving averages, by February 2025 we can predict a very strong downward trend in the Russian currency, which is an indicator of what is happening in Russia behind the scenes. I cannot guarantee this, but based on today's trends, the indicator should be 0.91 by February. And when that happens, then the door is closed, you can't play that card because it will already be news, when the trend, the tendency, is going down. As for the BRICS, they are being neglected, there was a preliminary meeting where China, India and South Africa were neglecting the Tsar of Russia. So the Russian economy is collapsing and the fall for Russia will be severe. I estimate the collapse of Russia, starting this summer, at 10%, and every quarter it increases by 10%, so that means the collapse of the economy in Russia is predicted for 2025-2026.

Сообщество БРИКС и вызов доллару США
https://dzen.ru/a/ZvAR4bRXXAz4iWJx 
https://www.publish0x.com/professional-videoproduction/the-brics-community-and-the-challenge-to-the-us-dollar-xmjellm
The BRICS Community and the Challenge to the US Dollar

Снижение доходов в России и рост цен
https://dzen.ru/a/ZvUwE60tU2fu_yJk
https://www.publish0x.com/professional-videoproduction/declining-incomes-in-russia-and-rising-prices-xdkwjrz
Declining incomes in Russia and rising prices

Если хотите быть в курсе понимания трейдинга, я бы рекомендовал вам ознакомиться с книгами Стэна Вайнштейна, в частности, "Секреты получения прибыли на бычьих и медвежьих рынках".
А также настоящая азбука по трейдингу от доктора Александа Элдера "Трейдинг. Первые шаги" - коротко о самом важном. Многие были бы рады, если бы эта книга попала в руки к ним как можно раньше.

А также серия "Альпина. Бестселлер (Инвестиции)" - подборка самых важных книг для инвестора. Топовые книги по теме инвестиций и трейдинга.

Карл Менгер фон Вольфенсгрюн - австрийский экономист, основатель австрийской школы.
Творец маржиналистской революции в экономике.

Адам Смит - шотландский экономист и философ-этик, один из основоположников экономической теории как науки. Считается основателем классической политэкономии.

Главный труд "отца" классической политической экономии Адама Смита, завершенный им более 230 лет назад, "Исследование о природе и причинах богатства народов". Теория невидимой руки рынка, государство как ночной сторож - все это "Богатство народов".
Создают ли люди в России богатство? Или они создают вещи, которые не имеют ценности или уменьшают ее ценность? Сокращенная или краткая версия "Богатства народов" - лучшая книга. Экономика страны - это просто миллионы людей, которым нравится создавать или оказывать ценные услуги. Если все больше людей создают разрушения или оказывают бесполезные услуги, как в России, производительные люди не смогут поддерживать экономику.

In US dollars, at 0.01039, the ruble is worth about 1 US cent. No one wants to short or buy the ruble outside of Russia. There is no liquidity. And no one will buy anything that is trading below the 200-day moving average. Markets reward and punish, and in the case of the ruble, the market punishes harshly. Even Russia now trades in Chinese yuan, UAE dirhams, and product swap contracts. But not Russian rubles. As a result, there are no ruble contracts. Russia made the market artificial when it demanded oil sales in rubles at the beginning of the war. This killed the volume and made it a state market. India and China are abandoning rubles. This has led to several barter exchanges that seem almost quaint in today's economy.

The real story of the ruble is not the official exchange rate, but its value in the real world. The ruble is not traded anywhere and has zero value outside of Russia. The Moscow Exchange and all Russian markets set the exchange rate by fiat. Any foreign market that trades this commodity will have its numbers skewed by low volume. The ruble is essentially a voucher within the country. Technically, the ruble is toilet paper.

Do people in Russia create wealth? Or do people in Russia create things that have no value or that reduce its value? The abridged or short version of The Wealth of Nations is the best book. A country's economy is simply millions of people who enjoy creating or providing valuable services. If more and more people create destruction or provide useless services, as in Russia, the remaining productive people will not be able to support the economy.

How will the average Russian suffer? Inflation and shortages of goods, and most importantly, no way to escape, Russia will be so far removed from all civilized countries that economic life will be hard.

The world is a worse place if you support despotism, which becomes a real threat to the whole world.

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Publication in Russian on the Zen blog
https://dzen.ru/a/ZxDUjFUdBRQCD_6V