Hi everyone!
Today I want to share my own experience with the Coinpot Multiplier and a little experiment I performed. As I mentioned before, the Multiplier seems to be a controversial topic among Coinpot users. Since the Multiplier is advertised as Provably Fair by Coinpot itself, one might expect to be able to rake the bonuses (Rolls and CT Stacked) without sustaining significant losses and essentially roll for free. Using various "home made recipes" with the Multiplier parameters, some claim that raking the Multiplier bonuses is easy peasy and that the Multiplier is not bias. On the opposite side of the spectrum, some lost tens of thousands of CTs in no time and swear that Coinpot is cheating. Who's right, who's wrong? I went on and put my rolls in for 35 straight days, recorded my results and drew my own conclusions. Here is the data.
The Setup
On the back of what I discussed earlier, I decided to make it simple and as risk free as possible. I started with a very low bankroll, 514 CTs, as I had converted almost all of my CTs and other coins to Bitcoin Core earlier. I wanted to put in at least 30,000 rolls per day at first, and if possible not to go broke in the early days of playing the Multiplier. In restrospect, 514 CTs was a very low starting point and I'm glad I didn't go broke in the first two days.
No surprises here, to reach 30,000 or even 100,000 rolls you have to use the AutoRoll tool. My strategy was very simple, for each and every single roll I made my bet was always the same - 1 Coinpot Token. Admittedly, the only reason to play the Multiplier is to rake the Daily/Monthly Rolls and Token Stacked bonuses. With the minimum of 1 CT, I was aiming to reach 100,000 rolls (the max bonus for Daily Rolls) and 100,000 Token stacked (the 4th bonus for daily Token Stacked) every day. To get to the last Daily Tokens Stacked bonus, 1,000,000 Tokens stacked are required. The only way to get there under 24h is to bet more than 1 CT at a time. Given my results, this is actually a losing strategy.
As for the other AutoRoll parameters, I mentioned that none of them should make any impact on the outcome of the game, so I went as follow.
General:
- Max # of rolls: 10,000 (so that 10,000 x 10 tabs = 100,000 rolls, you don't have to set a limit here, but I don't need more than 100,000 rolls)
- No pause between rolls (get to the goal as fast as possible)
- No stop for profit (no reason at all to stop, get there as fast as possible)
- Stop at -100 Tokens for losses (just in case things go crazy, and sometimes it does...)
On Win:
- No change at all on any of the parameters
On Lose:
- High/Low: Alternate (just a personal preference, it doesn't change anything... or does it?)
- No change for the other parameters
Now, to get to my daily 100,000 rolls I often had 10 browser tabs open at once, all rolling with the same parameters. From time to time, a tab hits the -100 CTs loss. In this case I restarted the roll with about the number rolls needed to get to 10,000 with this tab. I usually set 10 or 11 tabs (since not all will complete the 10,000 rolls) to run overnight and I checked back in the morning to see where things were at. If needed I kept rolling during the day until 100,000 total.
Outside of that, the computer(s) I used to run the Multiplier is/are your typical household desktop computers. Nothing special, no super fast nor super slow internet setup/connection. If everything kept rolling, and with 10 tabs on at once, I was usually hitting the 100,000 rolls in about 3 to 3.5 hours.
Final disclosure, when tracking the Multiplier results, I tried to make sure as much as possible that the CT gains or losses where those coming from the multiplier rolls. Meaning I was careful about what bonuses would be triggered during the time I was rolling. I was monitoring my faucet claims and the bonus CTs I would get from these claims. The numbers below are only related to the Multiplier activity.
The Data - Every Roll is a Loss
So after 35 days of doing this, what did I get?
Let's start with the elephant in the room, after more than 3.3 million rolls, the edge was clearly and consistently on the house. Surprised? I was slowly, but consistently, losing my 50%-50% bets with the Coinpot Multiplier. You can see in the graph below, when only the rolls were taken into account (without bonuses) I kept losing and losing CTs, not by much, but the trend is crystal clear!
I was very hopeful ending my first day and first 30,000 rolls with +67 CTs, but after 35 days I had lost slightly over 20,000 CTs directly from the rolls. Almost a perfect straight, smooth, downward line, only broken by 2 big losing days (day 12 and 20, I was in the red even with the bonuses factored in).
Overall, I lost my CTs at an average of 6.084 Tokens per 1,000 rolls. Doesn't seem much, but as you can see it adds up quickly.
So here I am, 3,351,279 rolls completed. In my case, this is the equivalent of flipping a coin 3,351,279 times, since my odds of winning/losing are supposed to be 50%. In the end, I won 1,665,444 times and lost 1,685,835 times. Is that 20,391 difference statistically significant? Is it just unlucky, for 35 days in a row?
If you look at the possible outcomes, winning half or less of these 3,351,279 rolls has a probability of 50%, if the game truly is unbiased. Winning 1,675,439 (-200 from half of total) or less of these rolls has a probability of 41.3%. Note that the probability is the same for winning 1,675,839 (+200 from half of total) or less of these rolls has the same 41.3% probability. -1,000 or less from half, the probability is now only ~13.7%. -10,000 or less? The probability drops to 0.000000000000000000000000004%. The graph below illustrates that concept.
You get the idea. For all practical purposes, the probability to finish with a loss 20,391 (or less) out of 3,351,279 rolls if the game was truly unbiased is ZERO!!!. The logical conclusion is that this is not a true 0% edge game.
The Data - Bonuses Save the Day
Fortunately, and this is what matters in the end, the bias was not too strong. With the difference bonuses kicking in, I ended up my Multiplier sessions positive, almost every day. You can see below the graph of my accumulated CT gains coming from the Multiplier. After 35 days, I had gained a grand total of 56,110 CTs.
There are a lot of "average" days and a few, badly losing, outliers. The graph below illustrates that nicely. All data points considered, I made an average of 1,603 CTs every day.
Although there are a few things to be on the look out for, my 35-day run comforted me in the idea that the Multiplier can be used at my advantage to create a steady income of CTs every day. I keep on putting my 100,000 rolls everyday ever since.
With the data I got, however, I doesn't make any sense to try to go for the 300,000 or 1,000,000 CT stacked bonuses. I would have to roll 200,000 or 900,000 more times only for a 900 CTs bonus. By doing this, I would still be losing my CTs at 6 CT every 1,000 rolls. I would have to lost way more CTs than I could possibly win. If I increase the bet to 10 CTs instead of 1, the results would be the same.
Also, I never won anything with the ~1,000 free lottery tickets I was winning every day with my rolls. My chances never were above 0.02%. Statistically, I would have to play 6.8 years to barely have a 50% chance to win the lottery, so don't count on that.
Some Odd Behaviors
I don't know if it explains some the results I got but I saw a few things happening during these 35 days.
I was using the same setup every day. Rolling at about the same hours every day, same computers, internet connection, number of tabs open, etc... Although most days were similar there were a few weird days. On rare occasions, I saw rapid plunges on all my open tabs. I was losing ~100 CTs in 10-15 minutes, and in only about 1,000 rolls, in all of my 10 open browser tabs. If unchecked, and if you don't have the "-100 stop limit", this can siphon your bankroll in no time. I don't know how and why these happened. If I was able to catch it as it went, I would just stop all my rolls and wait an hour or two before resuming my rolls.
Another thing I noticed and kept noticing all the time is a discrepancy between the number of rolls and the number of CT stacked. Since I'm always rolling with a bet of 1 CT, these 2 numbers should be the same - they are not! I don't know how this can happen, how can I bet a CT (=make a roll) but somehow it is not stacked? Tokens lost in limbo? Lost for me for sure!
Conclusion
Although I'm convinced now that the Multiplier is not a 0% edge game, my experiment demonstrates that, in my case, it is a profitable enterprise and that has a net positive impact on my Coinpot Token balance.
Along with other user experiences and comments, including xarbenium's latest post, it also clearly appears that something is going on and makes every one experience different.
I would definitely encourage anyone to give it a/another try. I would suggest rolling with a few browser tabs simultaneously but not necessarily 10 to start with. With a bankroll as low as 500 CTs you can run 5 or 10 tabs at the same time, and as long as the cumulative losses are not greater than 500 you can keep on rolling, one positive tab compensating for one negative tab. You will be able to get your bonuses faster. Always bet 1 CT per roll. Set a stop limit at -100 CTs. Keep an eye on your tabs, at least until your bankroll gets bigger (after a few days). If anything goes crazy, stop it and restart it another time.
Leave me your comments and questions. Best of... luck!
-OMS
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