There are many different things going on in the gold market. Recently, we have seen that the spread between spot gold and futures contracts has exceeded normal levels due to the demand for physical delivery in gold contracts and OTC contracts. This is quite an interesting situation because, for whatever reason, those who had long positions suddenly started to yearn to buy physical gold.

There may be many reasons behind this; in response to the expectation of a possible global turmoil, those who do not trust the digital system may have wanted to carry gold physically, which is one of the most naive scenarios. Another is that after China, the US may also be buying to increase its gold reserves, which I think is a bit more of a conspiracy theory based on the current data. However, we should not forget that in the past, we know that Russia increased its gold reserves before annexing Crimea. Later, before entering the war with Ukraine, it calculated the oil it had at half price and made a budget. In other words, such situations were preparations for war for Russia.

Then there are the gold purchases of China, which we all know. Was there an effort to increase reserves before a possible war in the future? And now, is there such an effort in the US?

On the other hand, another issue that occupies the market is whether the US will revalue the gold in its treasury, for example, at $2900. If such a situation occurs, what will happen to the markets?

First of all, let me say this; in my opinion, such a situation is unlikely. Because such a decision will cause very large fluctuations in many values, from the purchasing power of the USD to the interest market. First of all, we need to think like this, the indebted American economy will create an extremely serious resource without increasing the debt even more. In return, who knows where the ounce gold price will go.

Because this maneuver will cause an increase in the money supply. Historically, periods when the money supply increases usually coincide with an increase in the price of gold. This time should not be different. So what does the increase in gold, the increase in the money supply mean for the value of the USD? Naturally, the increase in supply will weaken the value of the dollar. In fact, the value of the USD will decrease not only against gold, but also against other currencies.

In this case, the US will have cheap dollars, which is a dream situation for exports. Of course, where there is plenty of money, it will be a little more difficult to control spending and an environment that supports inflation will be created. In this case, the market will start selling bonds, which I have been saying for years are the backbone of the markets and where the easiest money is made. The Fed will have no choice but to increase interest rates to control spending.

So, will this scenario, which I evaluated above as a conspiracy theory, come true? If you ask me, this is a scenario that is being mentioned without thinking about the future and the future, and implementing it in this form is against both President Trump's and the Fed's fight against inflation. Therefore, it cannot be implemented, at least in this form. Nevertheless, the love for gold in the market will be permanent and gold seems to find buyers almost everywhere.

The latest development in European-US relations was Trump's advisors' statement that the US will not send new soldiers to NATO, but that if Europe wants, the US can sell defense systems and various weapons. This development is actually quite important.

Trump clearly says that he will stop spending on NATO and that he can even sell weapons to other NATO countries, turning this relationship into a significant source of income. In fact, this is a view that I have been waiting for a while. It has not happened yet, but the doors have opened.

In addition to this, there is also the issue of LNG. Currently, the US sells 45% of the gas that Europe uses for heating. Norway sells around 50% and various countries sell the rest. However, Trump wants to get the lion's share of this. He will most likely try to use tariffs to ensure that Europe buys more US gas with long-term contracts.

In this way, it is necessary to think that he wants to both ensure growth by selling weapons and LNG and keep inflation under pressure by controlling energy prices. Let's see how Europe will approach the issue of purchasing weapons and what kind of pressure Trump will use to sell LNG.

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