For weeks, the whole world has been on edge, waiting to see if a war would break out in the Middle East. Then, three days ago last Saturday, the feared happened: the US and Israel struck Iran, killing the country's most powerful figure, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with his family and close associates. This marked the beginning of a major war in the Middle East. However, so much has happened in the last three days that as I write this, it feels like a week has passed since the war began.
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran hotel room in 2024 revealed the extent of Israel's intelligence network, which had infiltrated the very heart of Iran, and its military capability to carry out precision assassinations in another country. However, the assassination of Khamenei, in plain sight, in a region where war drums had been beating for months, raises many questions, especially after the Haniyeh assassination and the revelation of Israel's capacity to conduct such an assassination within Iran. In such an environment, with war on the horizon, how could Khamenei, Iran's number one target for Israel, have been caught by death while casually having tea with his family and close associates in his office?
While searching for the answer to this question, I came across a wide variety of scenarios, particularly in the Israeli and American press. According to Israeli and American experts and officials, the assassination of Iran's top leader, Khamenei, was the result of years of intelligence work by Israeli secret services and significant technological resources provided by the CIA and other US intelligence services in the last six months. Israeli military officials said Khamenei was killed in almost simultaneous attacks within 60 seconds, along with "seven top Iranian security leaders gathered in various locations in Tehran" and about a dozen family members and close associates. 40 other high-ranking Iranian leaders were also killed in the attack.
According to the New York Times, the timing of the assassination was determined by intelligence the CIA received on Saturday morning indicating that high-ranking Iranian officials would be holding a meeting at a leadership complex in central Tehran. According to the New York Times, most importantly, the CIA was able to inform its Israeli counterparts that Khamenei would be attending the meeting and the timing of the meeting. Israeli spies had also been tracking Khamenei for years and had compiled a detailed file on his daily routine, family members, colleagues, allies, and security personnel.
Reuel Gerecht, a former CIA agent experienced in tracking high-profile targets, describes the process: "It's like a giant jigsaw puzzle. You're putting all the pieces of information together. These pieces of information can be anything: how they get their food, what happens to their garbage... We all get up and go to bed, we all eat and drink. We live in a world where information and data are multi-layered, so no one leaves a trace. Everything you do leaves a trace.”
Gerecht also stated that Israel has established networks of agents capable of conducting covert operations in Iran, while the US may be deploying significant technological assets. In short, human intelligence comes from Israel, and technological intelligence comes from the US. Gerecht says, “The US’s technological capabilities are incredibly impressive, and technology is crucial, but I don’t think the CIA has much to offer in terms of human intelligence or covert action networks. If you combine technological capabilities with networks on the ground, that will definitely increase its effectiveness.”
It appears that the Israeli secret service Mossad has focused on Iran for decades, establishing a deep network of informants, agents, and logistics there. Indeed, during the 12-day war in June 2025, Israeli agents identified the homes of Iranian nuclear scientists, intelligence officials, and military commanders. This is why dozens of people lost their lives in Iran during the first wave of attacks. David Barnea, who has headed Mossad since 2021, revealed that they have established a special department for a “foreign legion” of agents working for Israel in the Middle East. Melman stated that such agents are easier to recruit in Iran, where many are opposed to the regime, than in other countries. Modern warfare is no longer fought solely with tanks and planes. Advancing technology is defined by space-based tracking, data, access, and timing. Therefore, the fate of the war can change the moment Khamenei reunites with his family and close circle instead of hiding in bunkers or tunnels.
