Recent pricing behavior in the markets is shattering past conventions. The most concrete example of this is seen in gold prices. In environments of increased uncertainty, such as economic crises and wars, gold has always been seen as a 'safe haven,' and its price has increased during such times. However, the movement seen in gold after the US and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28th, which increased tensions in the Middle East, has been the complete opposite of these conventions. Whenever there is news suggesting the war will end, gold prices rise; when tensions increase, they fall. The price of gold per ounce, which hit a record high of $5,600 before the war, has lost nearly 14% of its value since February 28th. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump's statement, "Iran can't get things right, they don't know how to sign a nuclear disarmament agreement. They need to wise up soon, they're good guys now," caused upward movements in oil prices while creating selling pressure on gold.

So why are gold prices moving in the opposite direction to similar processes in the past? There are numerous opinions regarding this unusual behavior in gold prices. One reason is that some countries facing cash shortages due to the war are selling their gold reserves. Another is that the inflationary pressure created by the increase in oil prices could lead to interest rate hikes. In other words, investors who have made significant gains in gold in recent years are trying to change their positions to benefit from higher interest rates, creating selling pressure on gold. The 114% increase in gold prices from the beginning of last year to the end of January this year should not be ignored. So, the war that broke out after this very rapid rise seems to have created a good opportunity for those who want to realize this gain.

Fluctuations in gold prices are also changing the forward-looking expectations of institutions. For example, Morgan Stanley, updating its 2026 gold price forecast, raised its target for the second half of the year from $5,700 to $5,200 per ounce. Lorenzo Portelli, Head of FX Strategy at Amundi Investment Institute, believes that prices have the potential to move towards $5,500 in the next 12 months. According to Portelli, gold prices have already priced in all the worst-case scenarios. Wells Fargo's Chief Equity Strategist, Ohsung Kwon, stated that the price of gold could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027. Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast of $5,400 for gold by the end of 2026, despite the war-shattered market. While there is a risk of a short-term drop to $3,800 due to the energy shock, Goldman Sachs predicts that central bank purchases will continue. Many technical analysts also echo Goldman Sachs' $3,800 forecast. A significant number of analysts suggest that sales could accelerate if the price falls below $4,500 per ounce.