The rule-based liberal world order is collapsing and do you see a new order replacing it? How beautiful it used to be. There was a West. And an East. Everyone would choose someone according to their disposition. Then the East collapsed; only the West remained. That was beautiful too. Everyone was in the same camp. There was no separation or discrimination. The rules of this world, where everyone gathered around the same values, were clear. That's why it was called a rule-based international order. The order was based on two basic principles: liberal economy and liberal democracy. International agreements and institutions operated according to these principles. But as if to prove George Orwell's great words, all countries were equal, but some were more equal. These more equal countries determined how the rule-based liberal world order should operate. But after a while, this order started to falter. Equal countries started to object to more equal countries.
The beauty of social sciences is this: Nothing is as it seems. The global order, created and managed by the hands of powerful and wealthy countries, required investments and production to be shifted to developing countries in order to produce higher profits and more wealth. The aging of the population in developed countries also entered the picture. Thus, while the economic power of the powerful and rich countries of the past gradually stagnated, there was a great acceleration in developing countries. The world's economic center of gravity began to shift from the West to the East.
When the famous financier of Goldman Sachs, Jim O'Neill, came up with the abbreviation BRIC in 2001, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China, the aim was to put these countries on the radar of investors. There was no institutional structure. For a long time, the term remained only on paper. The leaders of these countries first came together at a summit in 2009, when the global financial crisis was devastating. Then South Africa joined these countries and the term became BRICS.
While the share of developed countries in the world economy decreased and the share of developing countries increased, developed countries could no longer control the global economy on their own. We saw this best in the 2008 crisis. The G7 could not manage the crisis alone. The G20 had to be mobilized. However, developed countries were very dominant in the G20. The importance of BRICS began to increase after this. Many countries wanted to join the BRICS platform. In 2024, the group expanded to 20 with members and invitees. Despite this, the main weight continued to be the first group of countries.
There was a G7 summit in mid-June. There is also a BRICS summit this weekend. Both summits are dull. It is not surprising that the G7 summit is dull in this global environment. In fact, Trump left the summit early due to the conflicts between Iran and Israel. Although the remaining six leaders continued the meeting, no joint declaration emerged from the summit on important global issues. The G7 countries, whose trademark is liberal values, now have deep disagreements on global issues.
The countries that make up the G7 are not as powerful economically as they used to be. But perhaps an even more important problem is the differentiation between countries, especially between Europe and the US, on fundamental values. We cannot see the atmosphere at the NATO summit and the commitment made to increase defense spending as the elimination of contradictions within the West. The West's understanding of world order that has shaped the world in the last 80 years is now in disarray.
The West's consensus on a rule-based liberal world order has weakened, but is there a world order consensus in the East or, in current terminology, the global south? The BRICS summit to be held on July 6-7 is important in this respect. However, the two big guns will not go to Brazil. Russian leader Putin is not going to the summit due to the ICC's arrest warrant. Prime Minister Li will attend instead of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It is said that the competition between China and India is influential behind this decision.
A global south summit without the participation of the leaders of China and Russia will be weak in terms of directing the world economy. As I always say, the old order is disappearing. The formation of the new order takes a long time. We have an unstable, unstable and turbulent period ahead of us; it seems like it will continue like this for a while.
