Hello HODLers,
Today I would like to share with some thoughts on the evolution of the trend of average incomes, of purchasing power and of how all this will have an impact on monetary policy choices in the coming months. Let's take the American data as a reference, since the economy can be defined as a driving force for the entire globe with its own numbers.
Let's start our reflection from this graph:
The bars represent the income capacity of an average US citizen relative to the cost of living. From the 1960s to 1990s, an American with his earnings was able to live on average and save something.
From about 1990 the situation has reversed up to today where income is not sufficient to cover the cost of living and an average American must necessarily resort to using debt to meet their needs. The red bars represent how much Americans spend relative to their income. As you can see, Americans are spending a lot more than they make by making more and more debt.
This graph has stimulated my reflection leading me to the conclusion that the US cannot afford to have such high interest rates for long periods as the whole American system is debt-ridden and it is absolutely necessary that this cost little. And then once the Fed has achieved its goal of stabilizing prices and controlling inflation (the target is 2% annual inflation), we can likely return to witness a decline in interest rates, which it will give new life to higher risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. The problem is that until we have a drop in inflation, central banks will continue to raise interest rates, so we should all hope for a cooling of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and a diplomatic solution. Only this will allow gas and energy prices to return to sustainable thresholds and therefore to return to stable and controlled inflation, probably around 2%. Once inflation is under control, central banks can return to lower interest rates and the markets will finally breathe a sigh of relief.
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