Will the coming recession be worse than 2008?
In today's blog article I want to discuss with everyone why I believe the next upcoming recession is going to be worse than the 2008 recession. I'm sure as many of my readers know by now the risk in the asset market is currently in a bear trend except for the housing market. But there are already many experts calling for us to be in another housing bubble that is likely to soon pop. I however can speak on the housing and real estate market as that's not my expertise or where I invest. But from what I hear and read the real estate market is due for a comedown. I do believe that the real estate market crashing is what's officially going to push us into the recession, I don't think it's what's going to carry us all through the recession and what will hold us down. There are also many different factors at play right now with the world economy that we didn't witness in 2008 which is leading me to believe that this coming recession is going to be a lot worse than the 2008 recession. So with that being said let's cover them in today's article.
One of the biggest factors at play with the world economy especially in the U.S economy is inflation. Once a problem of corrupt countries and weak economies inflation has now found itself in nearly every nation's economy. In 2008 The inflation rate was at 3.84% compared to today where it's at 8.26% and is likely higher due to how the government tracks inflation. This means the cost of goods is doubling in price from what it was in 2008 just from inflation alone. However, there is good news as the FED is planning on clamping down on inflation by raising the interest rate. This in effect is causing the start of the rescission and is signaling the path we are now going down.
Another key factor leading us into the recession and something that wasn't at all a key factor in 2008 is the current supply chain issues we are currently experiencing. The west especially the U.S hasn't experienced shortages on this scale in decades. One of the biggest shortages to make the headlines recently is the baby formula shortage in the U.S, However globally there have been shortages of computer chips that are currently trying to be solved in the U.S. This has led to even more shortages of other goods such as cars, household appliances, and game consoles. Reasons for this happening are due to ports being backed up and truck driver labor shortages. Although there are more reasons these are the most important ones to remember as it has the biggest effect by far on the economy.
A huge factor that was never at play in 2008 was a deadly European war. Ukraine being one of the biggest agricultural producers in the world and one of the biggest exporters to poorer third world countries has caused a global food shortage. Russia as well being one of the biggest producers of agriculture products has been embargoed leading to one of the biggest food shortages in recent times. This shortage has been felt everywhere from the west to the east from first world countries to third world countries there has been a huge amount of food pressure on governments around the world. Which has led to certain countries taking different courses of action to solve this. One of these government plans I found interesting was that the U.K government was planning on adding new genetically modified crops to their harvest. We'll have to wait and see how well that turns out but it sounds pretty smart and just goes to show how far governments are going to secure sources of food now. You can't blame them either next to energy price increases food price increases have been the leading factors in increasing inflation.
My Final Words
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