China is so anti crypto and Bitcoin and so anti freedom, non censorship and sovereign rights, that's no novelty. It's been trying to "kill Bitcoin" for years now and what it has managed so far was to force crypto exchanges and some mining pools to simply leave the country and search for better alternatives.
"BTC.TOP, a mining 'pool' that allows coordinated groups to work together to mine new coins, announced a withdrawal from Chinese operations, citing regulatory concerns. Mine operator HashCow has indicated it will suspend new businesses in China and stop purchasing new mining rigs."
source
That comes after Chinese Vice Premier Liu He called for a "severe" crackdown on and punishment of "illegal securities activities," including crypto mining and trading.
The news hasn't simply swept away without reverberations as "some large Chinese miners have booked mines in North America, Kazakhstan and Russia and are moving. But this is not a common phenomenon. The hashrate of the whole network has not dropped significantly, because the policies in Xinjiang and Sichuan have not yet been issued".
China so far seemed to be quite profitable for the miners and it accounts for more than 75% of bitcoin mining around the world. Yep, you read it right, three quarters of the Bitcoin that's being produced, or lets say recently mined could be labeled as *Made in China". The crackdown on miners and even some exchanges will definitely lead to some mining pools leaving the communist country.
North America seems to be the best option talked in the media, but the costs of infrastructure are 6X the ones in China. If forced by the Chinese authorities, miners will probably pack their rigs and move over seas. I get them... But what does that mean? Well, first of all China will no longer be a leader in mining Bitcoin and my gut feeling tells me that their recent crackdown comes as their shitty CBDCs are probably right around the corner.
Moving out of "cheap China" also translates to miners being forced to HODL longer and sell at higher prices than they would if mining in China. As in any business, you have to cover the costs and make some profits on the way, other way you wouldn't enter any business.
If memory serves me well the cost of mining a Bitcoin in China about three years ago was around $6,000 and taking the account that the halving has occurred a bit over a year ago than we're talking about $10,000 - $12,000 electricity costs to mine one Bitcoin. If Chinese miners should move in large numbers to North America and forced to pay 6X more the costs they had in China it's probably that we won't ever see Bitcoin at under $60,000.
If we look at history we see that back in 2013 BTC has registered an ATH of around $1,000, it was priced once again at that level when the 2016 having occurred, peaked at $20,000 in 2017, and during the 2018-2019 bear market we haven't seen an under $3k Bitcoin(3X the 2013 ATH). Hence, if the top of 2017 has been $20,000 we might have high chances that in the future bear market BTC won't fall under $60,000.
I don't know how much sense does all of the above makes and how good I am at expressing my simple minded logic, but doing math the way I see it, Bitcoin will probably peak somewhere over $200,000 this cycle and will never get under $60,000 afterwards. I know those are bold statements, but considering that mining Bitcoin, if Chinses miners flee China, won't be "that cheap anymore", we should expect prices to go high and stay pretty high during bear market as well.
Nothing's yet nailed, but that's my case for a $200,000+ Bitcoin by the end of the bull market and a bear market with Bitcoin not falling under $60,000. Feel free to share your thoughts and analysis on the crap you read above.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
