The Siren song of guaranteed returns returns !!!
sing that sweet song Sirens

The Siren song of guaranteed returns returns !!!

Hello crytofans we love you! Ever see those ads for guaranteed interest rates for your hard earned crypto ?  Yes you have!  Are you tempted? Of course you are!  Are some interest payments safe and reliable and real, are some Harpies, Undines calling you to wreck your Bitcoin ship on the Sirenums off the Amalfi Coast? Yes and hell yeah!!  Most intriguingly, are some of them all of the above if you can just get the timing right???

One of the thrills of Cryptoworld is watching cyphercurrency replicate the entire history of money in hyperspeed. Coins (first made of electrum!) turned out to be a great idea, though glass beads bought Manhattan.   Are these shells  valuable ?  How about these tulip bulbs, Mississippi, the South Sea ? Is paper money OK ?  Early Chinese notes, instead of saying "in God we trust" said "Counterfeiters will be beheaded."  

Ahh, the heady early days of money & bitcoin.  Visigoths and Vikings and Spaniards looting entire civilizations, melting down that gold.   Someone running a stagecoach filled with money ? Cut em off at the pass. Bitcoin is a good idea ? steal 181 million of em in 2010, forcing Satoshi to save the day with a hard fork (probably while wearing a white hat.)  Mt. Gox has all the bitcoin ? Hack into that cheezy pokemon card trading software and steal $850 million of it !!!


In the early days of the stock market, Joe Kennedy, the patriarch of the famous Kennedy political family,  built his fortune running short squeezes, market corners, and bear raids.  Laws enacted later would make his practices known as market manipulation and insider trading.  But Joe was never hit by these laws,  as he got out with immaculate timing.  He claimed he knew to get out of the market when his shoe shine boy started giving stock tips.  Joe put his money into real estate before the Great Crash of 1929, and happily ran short squeezes during the Great Depression,  then moved on to political power.  My personal favorite trick of papa Joe's politics?  When running against a strong opponent, the Kennedys would get some schmo with the same name as the opponent on the ballot.  So it was Kennedy vs. Bob Bloggs (the real opponent) vs Bob Bloggs (the stooge.)   Bob's vote was split and the Kennedys won again and again!


Fast forward to the great Bitcoin bull market "pump" of 2017.  Was this a stupendous "pump and dump" run by a few insider whales that would turn Joe green with envy ? You know it was.  Are various regulators coming in now to close the door after the barn burned ? Of course.  And more and more regulations will pile on as cybercurrencies worm their way into old Wall Street, now LIVE in the futures markets of the venerable CME and CBOE. 

So, guaranteed fixed rates of return on your money.  What does that bring to mind ?  1) boring certificates of deposit  (after taxes and inflation, Invesco recently estimated real rates of return on CD's were actually NEGATIVE for 14 of the last 16 years)  OR 2) exciting events like the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scam!  Wahoo, what a scam! Mt. Gox plus the 72 million hacked from Bitfinex plus the $190 million missing in the Quadriga mystery (way to make the leader board there Canada !) - all of those together you could lose in the Madoff Ponzi scheme,  and never find them.   Bernie was sentenced to make restitutions of $170 BILLION USD !!!  Ok, really it might have been only 63 billion,  some pro Bernie dude who was roundly ignored claimed half of that was fictional, so conservatively only $30,000,000,000 !!! 


Now, here is the fun part, dear readers who want money.  Almost everyone agrees depending on how you look at it ( opportunity costs, etc ) around 50% of Bernie's clients did not lose any money!! That, in a scam that ran for nearly thirty years !! So, here's the real question - how many of those investors MADE money ?  Half of that 50%, or 25% as a smallish guess ? How much did they make ? If you got in the first five years, ran for twenty five years before trying to claw back money from Bernie's family before (and after) they killed themselves?  well, 25 years of 10% interest compounded is a sweet, sweet number, over 1,000% interest.  Those high rates of return kept right on marching through e.g.  the bubble crash in 2002.  We know many of Bernie's clients smelled a fish, and took some money off the table.  How many had Joe Kennedy's timing and played hard and got out clean? 

So, back to crypto and guaranteed returns.  Want some negative return CD's?  I didn't think so.  There is American based BlockFi.  An old wall street colleague who was CTO at Fidelity is now the head of asset management there (though I think he is getting blown out this quarter.)  Fidelity's name is all over BlockFi, along with the Winklevoss twins.  Do I believe they will make good on their over 6% returns promised on Bitcoin ? I do, Fidelity would have had a team of smart monkeys running all over the place checking before it got this far.  Although I think they must be planning on making more return than that themselves through staking somehow, so I have to think about that more before I give BlockFi coins for a semi boring 6%. But we are here to talk fun, moon, Lambo !  

Take a quick look at, say, any of the Moon faucet sites (where we note in passing Brave is still running the 5$ in FREE BAT ads that they have removed from Publish0x.  I would say booo Brave, but they are the Virgin Mary compared to the promises being made on the offerwalls there.)  Spot some of those ads promising 40,000% return, .15% hourly return, just send your blockcoin here now !! OK OK, looking at their websites they all seem the same (some are actually clones of previously shut down ones.)  They all have typos and poor english in their copy.  They show smiling smart looking CTOs and CAO's etc, except no one with those names are listed on Linked In.  Whereas my shoeshine guy IS on linkedin. The copy says things like the execs can see the future, and wealth and crypto are good.  Which they are, and the true wild stories of Bitcoin make some of this seem believable.  But keep looking, some are very attractive, promising crypto giveaways for finding bugs, performing social media tasks for them. I don't wanna name names cause I've been doxed and hacked before. None of them seem to be based in the US, they are all inordinately proud of their UK certificates of incorporation.  I know you can incorporate in Delaware for about 15 bucks, though I coughed up the $100 to do it in NYC and the 700 to do it in Ireland because we want to do things the right way, but it must be cheap as chips and regulation free-ish to do it as an investment firm in the UK.   

Wall street teaches TANSTAAFL.   You can't believe anyone with a trading bot that will make you millions would give it to you for a thousand, they would keep it to theirselves.  There is a strict hierarchy of ideas on Wall Street.  Really great ideas go up to the proprietary trading desk (until they crash the world),  great ideas go to the trading desk, lesser ones to the sales desk, then they land in the research department to be given to good clients, then they slide on down to the general population.  But a Ponzi scheme, ahhh, there is a known creature.  To run a good one, like Madoff, you have to pay out to your first fish, to lure in and pay bigger fish, to lure in more and more and more...


Back to you, dear devil may care, freethinking fast moving reader.  Do you have the Joe Kennedy timing to jump in, knowing mathematically the exit scam HAS to be coming, and jump out again with the $$$ ?  The shakiest looking of these still boast someone called the Dark Lord showing you his proof of payouts, and the referral schemes all look awesome.  Can you subway surf?  Can you steal the bait before the hook bites?   Did you ever go out with a skanky girl ( or guy) in school for bad ulterior motives, and then live to tell the tale? Those sirens are singing that sweet sweet sound... look at those numbers and your head will start spinning...

 I would give you a referral shill but I just can't.  But do let me know how it goes. 


love, Dave



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Dave Sawyer
Dave Sawyer

National Merit got this punk rocker to Oberlin, and Wall Street fintech gave up world tours and an NYU MBA. I am a Bitcoin true believer. Bitcoin is deeply revolutionary in a way we always prayed tech would be. Keep the baby Faith!

Hi, I am Dave, and I just got hooked on crypto !
Hi, I am Dave, and I just got hooked on crypto !

After decades motorcycling in NYC to work on Fintech and play punk rock, I just woke up to Cryptocurrencies and fell in love like never before! Blogging for the hell of it while learning my way through this awesome, deeply revolutionary evolution in money. Join us while we laugh and flip off the central banks and their currency debasing governments! Stack sats to the Moon, Lambo, don't reck, FUD, FOMO, wild wild west, bless Satoshi!

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