Let's take a quick trip down memory lane. January 2023: "Tim Draper is betting (once again) that bitcoin prices will hit $250,000 a coin by the end of 2023. Of course, he made a similar bet in 2022."
Well, it's just halfway 2023 and Draper is now apparently cutting his losses regarding his 250K Bitcoin prediction by the end of the year. “So much for my predictive abilities…It is June 30, 2023. When Bitcoin was $4,000, I predicted it would reach $250,000 (60x) by now. It has only reached $30,000 (7x). I guess we have to wait a little longer, (maybe two years) but engineers are hard at work.”
The number crunching and more calculating types among us already noticed that when he doubled down on his 250K prediction, Bitcoin was in rather bad shape and sitting below the 20K level. Now that he's given up and admitting he was wrong, Bitcoin is actually up +50% and sitting in the 30K range. Is he smelling a crash? The return of the bear? Is he or a whale he happens to know about to dump some BTC themselves?
30K to 250K is over 8X. That's requiring a +800% upwards move for Bitcoin in less than 6 months. Bitcoin has actually achieved this before. Once in 2013 and the last time was in 2017, interestingly enough both of these upward price movements happened in exactly the same time frame we have left now for the 250K price prediction, July till December. Four years later in 2021, Bitcoin would again see similar movements, breaking historic price records but simultaneously lowering it's upwards run to +500%. Another different thing was that this time around the upwards movement didn't start in July but started a bit later when compared to the previous ones, namely September/October.
Alright, now that we got all that out of the way, I'm not one who thinks previous charts are a guarantee for future price movement. As a matter of fact we talked about this before, there are no guarantees and IMO Draper is playing the supply/time game. Meaning that when something is proven to be scarce, useful and desired, sooner or later there will be another upwards price movement. But this 250K jump is asking a lot, it's not like previous times when both market cap and price were low, this time around it's asking for some serious money to flow Bitcoin's way. And that in a time when we've got that deranged 'is a security, isn't a security' game going on, along with that pesky little fact that one misstep and WW3 could start at any given moment. But it isn't all doom and despair because behold; Standard Chartered actually shares Draper's views, just not regarding the 250K mark: