I often check up on these old articles and the core message they once had. Not to do a child like "hahaaa this aged well" kind of thing, but to see if they were right or why they ended up being wrong. Why? Because these are often the crucial learning experiences which help you to better inform and educate yourself for future reference. After all, fool me once shame on you, guide me once, and I know who's advice to take the next time.🤨🥱 That didn't come out as brilliant as it sounded in my mind, let's just get straight to the point. So, Tim Draper apparently repeated his 250.000 Dollar Bitcoin prediction:
"Tim Draper is betting (once again) that bitcoin prices will hit $250,000 a coin by the end of 2023. Of course, he made a similar bet in 2022...Despite his relentlessly bullish view on bitcoin prices, it is worth noting that the most recent “halving” or “halvening,” that occurs every four years in bitcoin, was ultimately followed by bitcoin surging to a new high at around $65,000 in 2021....This halving will bring the reward to 6.25 bitcoins and will fall to 3.125 in March of 2024."
Will it be so this time around? Honestly, it's just too soon to tell if the next few years will bring about a 250K Bitcoin and the chances are IMO higher that they don't, but for the long run, he most likely will be correct. Let's examine why:
Here's why he might be wrong again
What many seem to ignore or misunderstand, is that sub 20.000 Euro Bitcoin 2023 is entirely different that sub 20.000 Euro Bitcoin in 2020. Cost of living was way cheaper just 3 years ago compared to nowadays and I'm not talking about just gas or energy, literally everything we use in our daily lives is more expensive today, so what does that mean? Well, it means that your monetary value has drastically decreased. 2 Euro may have bought you a yummy cheese croquette back in 2020, today you'll have to pay almost double price for that same snack. Back then you used to pay 0.50 cents in gas to get to that snack bar, now you pay almost 2 Euros to travel the same distance. Everything is more expensive even precious metals such as gold and silver, but not Bitcoin. Wait, what? Yes, Bitcoin and the entire crypto markets are way down compared to 2020 and people left with less money to spend on luxury items or investing. So, how does that work out? Doesn't it mean it is actually even more impossible to get to 250K Bitcoin now as oppose to 2020? Maybe, but not necessarily and this is why he could actually be right now.
Here's why he might be right this time around
History, the halving and those that are lurking for this next cycle. Basically what the article link describes along with the fact that these institutional and vulture-like investors, prey on these times where prices are relevantly cheap as the average person can not afford to take advantage. How are whales created? They don't go emptying their bank account, stop paying their bills and sell all of their other assets to load up on gold, oil or BTC. No they got involved at the right time long before the first reports emerged on the halving and started hodling as their investment already made a 1000% increase by the time the rest read the headlines and caught on. They got involved and loaded up on oil barrels before the wars that involved major oil producing nations started. There could be several new Bitcoin whales in the making as we speak as the majority is struggling to pay for rent or daily expenses. But this theory and scenario only holds water if the world returns to (a somewhat) normal state where people can afford a decent living based on their monthly income. "Great, the bad times are behind us and we are able to afford a decent living again and start thinking about the future and investing" they'll say, and then suddenly see gold at 70.000 Euro and Bitcoin at 150.000.
But there is also another factor at play here. One which is also left out and not addressed often enough because it is basically just too early to draw any solid conclusions. Yes people have less purchasing power, thus less money left for non essential needs. But is Bitcoin a non-essential need or is Bitcoin money in itself? Bitcoin is much cheaper and easier to move around than oil or gold right? When was the last time you walked in with a lump of gold and chipped off some pieces to pay for something? Are CAR and El Salvador making oil legal tender? Is Russia accepting oil and gas as payment for selling their oil and gas? Or is it Bitcoin who has the upper hand in these scenarios? And remember, the repeating key phrase here is Bitcoin. Not Ethereum, not Cardano, not Dogecoin, not Computer Internet thingy, no, Bitcoin.