Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
- I do hold a long position in MANA as a token holder.
0. What is Decentraland ?
Decentraland is a 3D metaverse built on Ethereum blockchain where users are able to interact with one another in this metaverse and buy/ sell virtual plot of lands in the metaverse using their native MANA token.
1. Top Good News for MANA HODLERS !!!
- Metaverse Investors Compare Decentraland and the Sandbox to Manhattan in the 1800s: Report
Statistic as of 2021-12-29 00:12 AM EDT: 8 positive votes, 0 negative vote
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
2. How Decentraland Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist in 2021 (Sorted by % Return)
MANA has undergone 4,660.13% return from USD 0.079 to USD 3.7605 since 01 Jan 2021. MANA is the 6th best performing crypto assets among others here.
3. How Resilience Decentraland Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?
Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.
Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021
MANA has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.
During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, MANA returned -29.79 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, MANA returned -13.25 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, MANA returned -11.05 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, MANA returned -23.87 % at 22 June 2021
4. Technical Analysis on Decentraland
4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when MANA is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of MANA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of MANA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 28 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that MANA is losing momentum.
4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of MANA closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that MANA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that MANA is losing momentum.
As of 28 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that MANA is losing momentum.
4.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of MANA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of MANA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of MANA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of MANA
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that MANA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that MANA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 28 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that MANA is neither overbought nor oversold.
4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that MANA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that MANA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 28 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that MANA is neither overbought nor oversold.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on MANA, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Decentraland Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Decentraland defined above, MANA seems to trade at a similar risk level on 28 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 18 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -20.9 % on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
6. Price Simulation for Decentraland
How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual MANA price movement over the last week ?
Over the last 7 days, MANA is trading near the median quantile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that MANA is fairly valued and neither being overbought nor oversold.
7. MANA Community Analytics
Number of MANA Followers In The Past 24 Months
During the past 24 months, Decentraland followers have grown 824.2 % from 45,934.0 to 424,520.0 on Twitter and grown 1065.77 % from 6,418 to 74,819 on Reddit.
Monthly increment of Decentraland Twitter and Reddit followers peaked on Nov 2021 after Facebook (now Meta Platforms) announced its plan to rebrand itself and focus their business strategy around Metaverse concept.
Number of MANA Followers In The Last 30 Days
In the last 30 days alone, Decentraland followers have grown 25.86 % from 337,290 to 424,520 on Twitter and grown 14.24 % from 65,493 to 74,819 on Reddit.
Daily increment of Decentraland Twitter and Reddit followers both peaked on 01 Dec 2021.
8. Google Trends Analytics
decentraland reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-10-31 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, decentraland Google Score has increased 75.71 % from 35.0 to 61.5
Over the last 6 months, decentraland Google Score has increased 846.15 % from 6.5 to 61.5
Over the last month, decentraland is most saught after on Google from Cyprus, followed by Luxembourg and Malta.
