Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
Announcement from Quantdoge
If you are actively following my blog- Daily Crypto Risk Report, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to read my analysis, and your support is greatly appreciated. To further improve the quality of my daily analysis, I am actively making constant enhancements here and there.
I am pleased to announce that Quantdoge would be adding the Community Analytics section which you could find below in this article, where this section would look at how the community of particular cryptocurrency fares over time, and their influence on the crypto prices over the last 100 days.
In the meanwhile, Quantdoge is working hard on Developer Analytics and On-Chain Analytics features which would be gradually released over this month. Please stay tuned.
1. Top Good News for VET HODLERS !!!
-
Shanghai Man: VeChain on TV
Statistic as of 2021-05-15 07:41 AM EDT: 26 positive votes, 0 negative vote
VeChain’s blockchain solution on state run CGTN.
(Extracted from CryptoPanic)
2. How Vechain Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
As of 15 May 2021, Vechain has made a cumulative return of 3442.89% since Jan 2020 and 968.24% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 6th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.
3. Technical Analysis on Vechain
3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when VET is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of VET (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of VET (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 15 May 2021, VWAP is suggesting that VET is trading below its average price range of USD 0.20 to USD 0.21 per VET.
3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of VET closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that VET is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that VET is losing momentum.
As of 15 May 2021, MACD is suggesting that VET is losing a significant amount of momentum this week.
3.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of VET
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of VET on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of VET from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of VET
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that VET is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that VET is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 15 May 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that VET is trading slightly below its fair value, and is now being traded at a slight undervalued position.
3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that VET is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that VET is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 15 May 2021, RSI is suggesting that VET is trading at an oversold (i.e. undervalued) level in the 14-day trading window.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a bullish view on the short-term price action of VET and thinks that there is a fair chance for it to rise pass USD 0.20 in the coming week, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
4. Vechain Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Vechain defined above, VET seems to trade at a much higher risk level on 15 May 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 05 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 24.42% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Price Simulation for Vechain
How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual VET price movement over the last week ?
Over the last 7 days, VET has been trading near the lower price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that VET was trading at a highly undervalued level over the last week.
6. Vechain Community Analytics
VeChain has been gaining a lot of followers on both Twitter and Reddit in the past year.
VeChain has gained a lot of Twitter followers this month, as seen from the peak in 2021-05.
Similar to Twitter, May 2021 has seen a record number of followers joining VeChain Reddit community.
Overall, VeChain has received a community score of 52.9% on Coin Gecko.
Based on the last 100 days data, there is a strong positive correlation between community support (measured by the increment in number of Reddit and Twitter followers) and VeChain price.
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If you are into Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA), I have made similar analysis on them at:
- 11 May 2021 (TUE)- Ethereum (ETH) Daily Risk Report
- 10 May 2021 (MON)- Cardano (ADA) Daily Risk Report
If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.
