Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
Announcement from Quantdoge
If you are actively following my blog- Daily Crypto Risk Report, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to read my analysis, and your support is greatly appreciated. To further improve the quality of my daily analysis, I am actively making constant enhancements here and there.
I am pleased to announce that Quantdoge would be adding the Community Analytics section which you could find below in this article, where this section would look at how the community of particular cryptocurrency fares over time, and their influence on the crypto prices over the last 100 days.
In the meanwhile, Quantdoge is working hard on Developer Analytics and On-Chain Analytics features which would be gradually released over this month. Please stay tuned.
1. Top 3 Good News for XRP HODLERS !!!
- XRP Holders Scored Major Win, Phemex To Relist XRP
Statistic as of 2021-05-15 08:10 AM EDT: 59 positive votes, 0 negative vote
On December 31, 2020, exchange platform Phemex announced its decision to suspend trading with the token XRP. However, investors and the XRP community can celebrate what could be the first of many relisting decisions. Phemex announced that it will resume trading with this token. The platform will introduce XRP trading along with trading for 8 […]
(Extracted from CryptoPanic) -
XRP Is “Greener” Than Bitcoin: CNN’s Julia Chatterley Corners Bitcoin Influencer
Statistic as of 2021-05-15 08:10 AM EDT: 61 positive votes, 5 negative votes
Prominent CNN host talks to Anthony Pompliano about XRP, Bitcoin and clean energy issues, assumes that XRP may exceed BTC as blockchain for transnational payments.
(Extracted from CryptoPanic) - Ripple reports strong XRP whale accumulation despite ongoing SEC lawsuit
Statistic as of 2021-05-15 08:10 AM EDT: 17 positive votes, 3 negative votes
Ripple released its Q1 2021 report showing a solid performance during the first quarter of the year.
(Extracted from CryptoPanic)
2. Top 2 Bad News for XRP HODLERS !!!
-
SEC tries to block XRP holders from joining SEC v. Ripple lawsuit
Statistic as of 2021-05-15 08:10 AM EDT: 4 positive votes, 10 negative votesIn new court filings, the SEC says allowing XRP holders’ to join SEC v. Ripple lawsuit as third-party defendant would cause delays and 'sow chaos.'
(Extracted from CryptoPanic) -
Millions of XRP Have Been Scammed from Users In Past Month: Details
Statistic as of 2021-05-15 08:10 AM EDT: 0 positive vote, 6 negative votes
Recent analytics report from XRP tracker reveals the scale of recent XRP giveaway scams that happened to users of major crypto exchanges in the last month.
(Extracted from CryptoPanic)
3. How Ripple Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
As of 15 May 2021, Ripple has made a cumulative return of 725.15% since Jan 2020 and 589.53% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 7th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.
4. Technical Analysis on Ripple
4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when XRP is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of XRP (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of XRP (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 15 May 2021, VWAP is suggesting that XRP is trading below its average price range of USD 1.45 to USD 1.50 per XRP.
4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of XRP closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that XRP is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that XRP is losing momentum.
As of 15 May 2021, MACD is suggesting that XRP is losing a significant amount of momentum this week.
4.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of XRP
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of XRP on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of XRP from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of XRP
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that XRP is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that XRP is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 15 May 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that XRP is trading near its fair value (i.e. neither oversold nor overbought).
4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that XRP is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that XRP is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 15 May 2021, RSI is suggesting that XRP is trading near its fair value (i.e. neither oversold nor overbought).
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price outlook of XRP, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Ripple Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Ripple defined above, XRP seems to trade at a higher risk level on 15 May 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 05 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 28.83% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
6. Price Simulation for Ripple
How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual XRP price movement over the last week ?
Over the last 7 days, XRP has been trading near the lower price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that XRP was trading at a highly undervalued level over the last week.
7. Ripple Community Analytics
Ripple has been gaining a lot of followers on both Twitter and Reddit in the past year.
Ripple has gained a lot of Twitter followers this month, as seen from the peak in 2021-05.
Ripple has gained the greatest amount of Reddit followers in Feb 2021, although the monthly increment of Reddit followers have slowed down, it is still much higher than a year before.
Overall, Ripple has received a community score of 54.2% on Coin Gecko.
Based on the last 100 days data, there is a strong positive correlation between community support (measured by the increment in number of Reddit and Twitter followers) and Ripple price.
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If you are into Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA), I have made similar analysis on them at:
- 11 May 2021 (TUE)- Ethereum (ETH) Daily Risk Report
- 10 May 2021 (MON)- Cardano (ADA) Daily Risk Report
If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.
