11 FEB 2022 (FRI)- VeChain (VET) Report Card

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 11 Feb 2022


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
  • I do hold a long position in VET as a token holder.

1A. VeChain Project Updates

1. The VeChain Foundation Financial Report — 2021 Overview (26 Jan 2022)

The VeChain Foundation has worked extensively with leading enterprises, global regulators and leaders in compliance to best position VeChain to serve the real economy . The outcome was a suite of solutions and tools that adequately and effectively addressed the diverse needs of global legal jurisdictions, allowing VeChain to operate globally and seamlessly .

The VeChain Foundation currently operates in Singapore and San Marino and has global operational coverage from Luxembourg, France, Italy, Cyprus, the United States and across SEA. The new form of financial report will be disclosed quarterly in the 2022 fiscal year. The VeChain Foundation has also included a newly added section ‘SDGs’ (short for Sustainable Development Goals) which shows VeChain's long-term commitment to tackle global sustainability initiatives.

2. Announcing VeUSD — VeChainThor’s First Stablecoin, Enabling Web3, DeFi, Sustainability Objectives and More! (04 Jan 2022)

The contract for VeUSD, VeChain’s first native stablecoin, will soon go live on mainnet. Developed by Stably, onboarded by CREAM and with stablecoins issued by Prime Trust, a Nevada-chartered trust company from the US, VeUSD promises to unlock new applications and new functionalities.

Stablecoins will be fully backed by physical reserves of fiat money that can be redeemed at a 1:1 ratio at any time . VeChain will launch a hackathon where prizes would be paid in VeUSD to fund winning VeChain developers and their projects.

2. How Vechain Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge's Watchlist since 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

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VET has undergone 256.38% return from USD 0.0188 to USD 0.067 since 01 Jan 2021. VET is the 23th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Vechain Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021

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VET has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,

When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, VET returned -33.46 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, VET returned -19.25 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, VET returned -20.06 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, VET returned -24.72 % at 22 June 2021

4. Technical Analysis on VeChain


4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when VET is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of VET (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of VET (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 10 Feb 2022, VWAP is suggesting that VET has been gaining momentum for the past week and is now trading above its week-long weighted average price, but still below its month-long weighted average.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of VET closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that VET is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that VET is losing momentum. 

As of 10 Feb 2022, MACD is suggesting that VET has been gaining a lot of upward momentum recently.

4.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of VET
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of VET on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of VET from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of VET

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that VET is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that VET is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 10 Feb 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that VET is trading near its upper band, which often serves as an overbought/ overvalued indicator.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that VET is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that VET is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 10 Feb 2022, RSI is suggesting that VET is relatively undervalued/ oversold across all moving average calculation periods.

4.5. Price and Volume Analysis 

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The recent VET bull run from 01 Feb 2022 onwards is accompanied by a larger daily average active trading volume as compared to the average volumes during its bearish fall in the week of 13 Jan 2022. This could be a sign that many traders and investors are buying and accumulating VET at current price level. 

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on VET, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Vechain Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Vechain defined above, VET seems to trade at a lower risk level on 10 Feb 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 31 Jan 2022, with its biggest pullback being seen at -16.39% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

The probability distribution chart of VET's daily return shows fatter right tail, thinner left tail and a higher peak as compared to 10 days ago, with lower probability of losing 10% or more, but it comes with greater probability of returning 15% or more and a higher chance of staying stagnant within 0% daily return range. A bullish development of VET.

6. VET Community Analytics

Number of VET Followers In The Past 24 Months

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During the past 24 months, VeChain followers have grown 370.6 % from 118,633 to 558,289 on Twitter and grown 268.24 % from 60,208 to 221,708 on Reddit.

Number of VET Followers In The Last 30 Days

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In the last 30 days alone, VeChain followers have grown 2.33 % from 545,603.0 to 558,289.0 on Twitter and grown 0.42 % from 220,790 to 221,708 on Reddit.

Daily increment of VeChain Twitter followers peaked on 16 Jan 2022 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 20 Jan 2022.

On average, VeChain managed to attract 296 new Twitter followers and 32 new Reddit subscribers every day.

7. Google Trends Analytics

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"vechain" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-04-11 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "vechain" Google Score has increased 15.15 % from 16.5 to 19.0
Over the last 6 months, "vechain" Google Score has decreased 12.64 % from 21.75 to 19.0

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Over the past 30 days, "vechain" was mostly sought after on Google from Bermuda, Netherlands and Montenegro.

8. Developer Activity Analytics

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Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

VeChain forks increased 28.57% from 168 to 216 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

VeChain stars increased 56.03% from 464 to 724 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

VeChain pull request contributors increased 23.08% from 13 to 16 in the past year.

9. Binance Futures Activities

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VETUSDT futures have relatively more buyers than the sellers in this month of February. As the time passes, the long positions on VETUSDT futures are increasing faster than the short. 

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VETUSDT long-short ratios remain consistently higher than BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures. However, please take note that this long-short ratio is simply just dividing the number of accounts who are long by the number of accounts who are short, without taking any buy/ sell volume into consideration. 

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At the time of writing, bulls are returning to the market in the past few hours as buying volumes are building up on all BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT and VETUSDT futures, with many of them betting that BTC would go up.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

Follow My Twitter for daily updates: https://twitter.com/quantdoge 

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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