03 DEC 2021 (FRI)- Compound (COMP) Report Card

03 DEC 2021 (FRI)- Compound (COMP) Report Card


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1. How Compound Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 02 Dec 2021, Compound has made a cumulative return of 291.84% since Jan 2020 and 60.33%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 22th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

2. Technical Analysis on Compound

2.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when COMP is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of COMP (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of COMP (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 02 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that COMP is losing significant momentum.

2.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of COMP closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that COMP is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that COMP is losing momentum. 

As of 02 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that COMP is losing significant momentum.

2.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of COMP
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of COMP on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of COMP from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of COMP

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that COMP is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that COMP is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 02 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that COMP is being oversold.

2.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that COMP is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that COMP is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 02 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that COMP is being oversold.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on COMP, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

3. Compound Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Compound defined above, COMP seems to trade at a lower risk level on 02 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 22 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -21.29% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

4. Price Simulation for Compound

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual COMP price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, COMP has been trading within the median range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that COMP was neither oversold nor overbought.

5. Google Trends Analytics

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compound finance reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-02-14 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, compound finance Google Score has increased 8.13 % from 52.25 to 56.5
Over the last 6 months, compound finance Google Score has increased 22.83 % from 46.0 to 56.5

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Based on Google searches, the compound finance is most sought after in Singapore, followed by Australia & Philippines this month.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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