Not so long ago I wrote a note about hodling. Now I look at current UNI hype and feel that I should probably extend that note a bit more.
A great many people think of Bitcoin BTC when they hear "Hodl!!!1" However, I'd say now BTC is nearly the last crypto worth hodling.
Wikipedia tells us that the verb hodl first appeared in Dec 2013. At that time BTC peaked at about $1120. It went nearly 20x by Dec 2017 or nearly 10x by now.
And so what? How high do you think it can go by Sept 2021? Or in 5 years or so? Of course, it's possible that the next year 1 BTC will be priced at $600K (or whatever your favorite guru says). But how probable it is?
A move from $0.01 to $1 and from $10K to $1M is the same +100x move, arithmetically. But what are the probabilities of the the former and the latter, cryptowise?
I want to say, that in 2013 it was wise to hodl BTC (and to mine it for almost free in 2010 was even wiser). But it's not so anymore.
Today hodling BTC is simply stupid. Today BTC is a resource for getting any shit that can go hundredfold in months (and to sell it back for BTC when time comes). Just look at DeFi hype, Polkadot hype. Searching for such gems and taking them for BTC is really wise today. Yup, it's a speculation -- but buying and hodling BTC in hope that its price will tenfold someday is a speculation as well.
If you think I'm overly hostile towards BTC -- no, I'm not. Hodl, but hodl wise!
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