After having had an uneventful session on Saturday yesterday, the price returned to the $ 9,000 zone and, today, we are in exactly the same conditions as we were last Monday; in terms of sentiment, at this moment the community expresses a certain pessimism, however the signals are conflicting. While on social media many traders show skepticism and the major analysts begin to report that it is not the case to harbor excessive expectations for the imminent halving (which will take place next spring) bakkt futures have set a new record in terms of volumes and the rise had on Sunday he has surprised many. In short, defining at this time which direction the trend will take is particularly complicated and it is easy to run into a wrong reading; having said that we don't waste any more time and we go immediately to take a look at the charts.
USDT / BTC need to be patient
After experiencing a terrifying 2018, this 2019 opened under the banner of enthusiasm, but already around April, if you follow the right people on social media, a 30D chart started circulating that showed bitcoin's tendency to pull it for the long ones; this graph shows a bullish pattern, however before resistance is broken it may be necessary to wait until the end of 2020 (this is why many analysts begin to point out that there is no need to have high expectations for the imminent halving). What you need to do is draw a line combining the maximums of December 2017 and June 2019 to derive the resistance, while for the support it will be enough to trace a line that unites the lows of May 2017 and November 2018; the figure that emerges is an ascending triangle and, at this moment, we are in the middle of this pattern. This explains why volumes are low and why nobody seems willing to buy at this time; hard to imagine that in the short term bitcoin could break $ 12300, while it is plausible to imagine a collapse up to $ 4600, so the game does not seem to be worth the candle. At this time, therefore, the bulk of the community is waiting for a new fund to be touched, so as to catapult itself again to buy, returning to accumulate at the final price. The most likely scenario, consequently, is that in the coming months bitcoin will re-test long-term support, and then return to test the resistance (probably right in the wake of enthusiasm for halving), thus ending up a victim again of bears to then break our triangle upwards and go on to mark a new historical peak which is unlikely to happen before the end of 2020 or the beginning of 2021. All this, of course, leaves a lot of time to find and cannot not even to define a forecast, given that we are talking about a time horizon of more than a year, but to many, today and now, what I have just described appears to be the most likely scenario; then put your soul in peace and be comfortable, because here it goes on. As for the 7D chart, what we see is a bearish configuration, so in the short term don't expect who knows, the best thing we can hope for is that the altcoins finally decide to recover some of the lost ground, increasing the overall value of the whole sector. Finally, as regards the 1D chart, be careful because it can be misleading; after the big increase had occurred in conjunction with Xi Jinping's speech, which caused prices to rise above 10 thousand dollars, the feeling is that bears are currently controlling the market anyway.
Weekly forecast
I tend to be bearish on bitcoins right now, but I know very well that BTC has a lot of fun mixing cards and confusing us; it is not possible, therefore, to exclude a rise up to $ 12300, however this is not the most probable scenario and, even if it did, it would not mean that our beloved cryptocurrency is back bullish. So keep liquidity aside because in all probability over the next three months you will have the opportunity to buy slightly under 5 thousand dollars and that will be the best time to fill up on bitcoins, not now.
