After the inflation data announced in the USA yesterday, there were sharp declines in euro, sterling, gold, silver and cryptocurrencies, and the euro - dollar parity also got its share of these declines. Euro - dollar parity is currently at 1.0714 level, that 1.0750 support level has been broken downwards and I said that 1.09 level will be the target this week. However, as the market started to price the FED, there was a downward break again due to inflation data. In other words, we are in a pricing situation that puts the markets in a completely opposite corner. That's why the 1.09 level will still remain on the radar. I would like to remind you that with this short-term pressure, investors who bought dollars today or this week have actually gained a trump card to switch to the euro and benefit from the parity. I would like to express that an opportunity has been seized here again, as our expectation for the Euro - dollar parity in the medium and long term is 1.12 and then 1.15.
On the ounce gold side, there is the 1994 dollar level. I stated that after the inflation data announced in the USA, the ounce of gold would target the level of 2050 dollars. However, the markets made a downward break as they used the FED as an excuse to price it. It fell to the 1990 dollar level. However, before the inflation data was announced, there was a level of 2030 dollars on the gold side. If the FED pricing had not started in the markets, we would be talking about one ounce of gold, which is currently at the level of 2050 dollars. Of course, there is the $1980 support level below. However, I can say that it is advantageous to turn these sharp declines this week into opportunities rather than persistently waiting for this 1980 dollar support level. Because today, seven ounces of gold sold for exactly 40 dollars during the day.
I personally would not have thought that there would be such a sale or adverse position after the inflation data in the United States was announced. But these sales are not very healthy sales. Considering the developments, risks and uncertainties regarding today's global economy, I can say that these prices continue to remain quite cheap. Especially in the last quarter of 2023, central banks purchased 50 tons of gold. There was a serious demand for gold. In the first quarter of 2024, central banks are increasing these purchases. After the World Gold Council announced the data for the first quarter of 2024, gold investors, like central banks who see opportunities below the 2000 dollar level, should evaluate this carefully. Because central banks will evaluate this process well.
The ounce price of silver is at $22.11. This, like gold, remained in a downward pricing trend. It fell sharply to around 2.60%. My positive expectations on the silver side continue. This is my expectation of 32 dollars within the year, there is no update or change in this expectation at the moment. Only 2.5 months of the year have passed, we have 9.5 months ahead of us. During this process, it will fall and rise hundreds of times, leaving it on a horizontal course. But my main trend is clear, I can say that investors who want to buy silver and have dollars in their hands have an opportunity here again like gold.
Oil prices are at $82.76. There is a 0.88% increase in Brent oil. I pointed out the $80 - $85 range here. This expectation still continues. In other words, we have a trend that does not want to move too far from the 80 dollar level. Now the barrel price of Brent oil is rising.
As you may have noticed on social media yesterday, there was such enthusiasm and joy in the cryptocurrency market when Bitcoin reached the $50,000 level. There was justified joy and justified enthusiasm. Because there are thousands of people who have invested in this market, lost 80% of their assets, and cannot recover their losses, and naturally, when they see 50000 dollars on the bitcoin side, everyone regains hope. There is a 3.17% sale here. Therefore, the suppression and manipulation here still continues. I say be careful. So, of course, let it rise. Of course, people should save their losses here and let there be normalization. The psychology here should be a little more manageable, but since a manipulation market has formed here, unfortunately the increases and decreases are not permanent in any way. I can once again recommend that you pay attention to this aspect.
If we take a look at the sterling - dollar parity, there is a decline to 1.26 here too. Sterling also remained quite cheap.
Dollar index is at 104.72. The dollar gained value all over the world. Because inflation data has been announced in America. Inflation data is announced in the United States in the second week of every month. Inflation in America was expected to be 2.9%, but it was announced as 3.1%. I stated that it could be explained as 3.1%, but it was announced as 3.1%. But when you look at the pricing, it is pricing the FED. So the market says that I think the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve, will delay interest rate increases. He will continue his discourse in a hawkish tone. We look at the meetings in March, June, July, that is, which month in this process corresponds to the expectation that interest rate cuts may begin. Of course, this benefits the FED. The more the Federal Reserve Bank of America, the FED, postpones this matter, the stronger its hand will be, and since central banks work in a controlled manner and are organized, the more they manipulate this process, the better for them.
But when we look at real pricing, the situation in global markets is not good at all. That's why the wind may completely reverse. These days are actually opportunities. These days, for example, there are good opportunities to get out of the dollar, to switch to the euro, to switch to sterling, to switch to gold and silver. If they change their discourse one day or another, we have statements with such a hawkish tone. But the time has come and we will increase our discourse as of May. If they start making a statement that they will start reducing interest rates, this time we may see the opposite wind compared to today. That's why, since I'm not a person who trusts the system very much, the system always distracts people. He always makes things wrong, like he did today. That's why I think we should see these days as an opportunity.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
