Global markets started the first trading day of the week on a positive note, with expectations that the economy in the country could make a "soft landing" following the employment data announced last week in the US. Inflation in the US and Germany, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be prominent, and I would like to state that the inflation data to be announced in the US is also of great importance in terms of the direction of the markets.
The New York Stock Exchange completed the last trading day of the week on an increase following the employment data that exceeded expectations. While the employment data announced in the US increased investors' confidence in the health of the country's economy, the stock markets showed a positive trend on the last trading day of the week. In September, employment growth reached its highest level in 6 months, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in the last 3 months. Average hourly earnings, which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) closely monitors, increased by 0.4 percent to $35.36. It can be stated that the announced data shows new evidence that the labor market in the US is much stronger than expected and is still resistant to the Fed's restrictive interest rates. The good economic data is also good news for the stock market, and expectations for a soft landing in the economy have increased.
We will watch the direction clearly turn upwards, even if there are occasional corrections, with the good data on the US side of Nasdaq. Technically, 19500 is now a solid support and there is room for an increase up to 2100. I expect the Nasdaq to rise to around 20450 after falling from around 20200 to 19950.
European stock markets closed higher, except for the UK. At the close, the indicator index Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.44 percent to 518.56 points. Investors in Europe welcomed the employment data in the US, which exceeded expectations. In the US, nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2 percent to 4.1 percent. In September, employment growth rose to its highest level in 6 months, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in the last 3 months.
European Union member countries supported a proposal to impose additional tariffs of up to 45 percent on Chinese-made electric cars. Although the Dax lost some momentum last week, 20225 is the target as long as it remains above 18750. Short corrections remain buy. The DAX should be 19400 after 19300 and 19150.
Silver ounce is in support position in short $30, above 32.50, the price gives free money up to 35 and 36. In the current scenario, I have gradual exit orders at $35 - 37 and $40. I plan to close the last 25% order at $50. Silver should go to 32.80 and fall from there to around 31.
The ounce of gold is seen to be trading at $2643.17 this morning. The results of the non-farm employment change and unemployment rate data showed that the employment market has recovered, and thus, a slight pullback was seen on the gold side after the data. Afterwards, a fluctuating trend prevails in precious metal pricing, where rising movements were observed again. I can say that the pullback movement in gold was quite limited with the introduction of geopolitical risks. It can be thought that the ounce of gold is searching for direction as long as it moves in the $2632 - 2652 band in the short term. In order for a positive expectation to occur, the price can be expected to exceed the $2652 level and bring the 2670 and 2680 levels to the agenda. In the negative expectation, the 2620 and 2600 support levels may appear below the $2632 level.
I do not agree with the statements that the ounce of gold is over and will collapse. Any decline (big or small) without seeing the 2770 - 2810 levels means that it will continue to go up sharply. On the commodity side, any short position opened without reaching the targets and without adjusting the margin is nothing but suicide. The close support level for short trade is 2600, staying above it requires 2810. I was expecting a pullback to around 2580 with Friday's Non-Farm Employment. It came twice as much as expected. It fell to 2630, then the news flow brought buying again. If there is no operation this week, 2580 should come, the main target is 2545 on the gold side.
Bitcoin technically broke the bull flag up and came back to the re-test zone. The level we will follow is the 59500 - 58000 range, if these are not broken down, the formation is triggered and the movement towards the 93600 level is hardened after the 80000 - 82000 band in the first stage. There was a pullback from 61800 on the BTC side. If nothing goes wrong, I expect an increase to around 64500. There should be a pullback from this point to around 63000. I expect a sharp move from around 63000 to around 67500.
As oil prices continue to rise due to concerns that conflicts in the Middle East could affect supply, the price of a barrel of Brent oil increased by approximately 1 percent to $78.3. At the same time, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil found buyers at $74.6, up 1.3 percent. With the reaction we generated from the 68 level of Brent oil, we have come back to the 78 region. As long as it remains below $80 and $85, $60 is the target. I will start the steps as of this week. The action I expected on the Brent side occurred, there was an increase to around 77.65. If nothing goes wrong, I expect a decrease to around 75. I expect an attack from around 75 to around 80. Natural gas should fall to 2.70 and then 2.90.
Ethereum should now quickly go to the 2800 - 3000 and then 3500 levels. They will face the fact that 2100 is the last bottom, when it does, they will all shout that they are waiting long in the market and even give Ethereum prices of 25000 - 30000 dollars. The price range that Ethereum should be in is 8000 - 10000 dollars, above is a game designed to destroy novices in my opinion.
The graph has partially changed in the usd - jpy technical. As long as it remains below 151 - 152, the selling pressure will continue. The movement will fluctuate between 140 - 150 for a while. As long as my main target price expectation cannot remain above 130 - 152, I continue to carry sell positions.
The EURUSD parity is trading at 1.0967 levels this morning. As we start the new week, I can say that I observed that the parity lost -1.50% of its value in the last one-week period. After Friday's employment data, I can emphasize that the idea of an interest rate cut of 25 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December is dominant. The US consumer price index data is an important data that I will follow on Thursday. When I evaluate the EURUSD parity technically, the support points of 1.0940 - 1.0900 - 1.0870 can be gradually monitored below in the continuation of the pullbacks. Above, I will be following the 1.10 resistance if the 1.0980 level is exceeded in the first possible reaction.
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