Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-111


On the Dow Jones side, last week, I particularly drew attention to the 37500 - 38000 range. Even though we did not make a sharp downward correction on the way up, the place where we corrected at least a little bit was the 37500 - 38000 range, which we can describe as the clear correction zone of the movement starting from 32000 and going to 40000, which was already the reaction. You can see it's coming from this range. We see that there is a return coming from here. In order for the trend to evolve upward again, there is already a downward trend coming from here. We need to exceed the 38500 - 39000 range so that we can go up strongly. Interest rate cuts were gradually postponed. I think that if it comes due to the elections, it will be 1 or 2 interest rate cuts.

If there were no elections, I think 2025 could be closed in terms of interest rate cuts. Considered from this perspective, there was a high probability that the pressure would increase on this side. We see that this is also happening, and although there may be upward reactions for a while, I think the horizontal movement is likely to continue. I can say that we have clearly turned up again, especially in the 39500 - 40500 range. As long as this range is not exceeded, we are still likely to talk about a long horizontal process of 2 - 3, maybe 4 months in possible reactions. Let's note this aside. I think it is useful to follow this way, at least the Dow Jones side.

Especially similar in Dax. 17743 were supported. He came and touched this support. Then he made his reaction. Here, the resistance level that needs particular attention is 18000. If the 18000s can be exceeded in the short term, in order for the movement to evolve in a positive direction again, after starting the net movement by taking the indicator tracking at 16900 - 17,000s, it started the upward rally without stopping and never falling below it, and after coming down, it started to close below the trailing period. The downward movement continued. Here, first of all, a certain period of time must be overcome. Tracker in the 18200s. If we start to see clear closings above 18200, I can say that the dax side has turned positive. But if it cannot achieve this, there is a possibility that the reactions will turn into sales again. The negative scenario is that the 17700s will be broken and the closings below will increase, which I think brings with it the possibility of a movement up to 17000s and the continuation of the downward movement. On the dax side, I can say that a continuation of the reaction movement can be expected as long as 17700 is not broken in the short term.

The range I particularly draw attention to in gold is 2320 below and 2400 above. This range continues to be the last saw range. We can put it above 2400. But we cannot be permanent. The upward movements here were initiated by the increasing possibility of interest rate cuts rather than the war. Now, the possibility of an interest rate cut has begun to fade away, but global risks and geopolitical risks still remain at the forefront as triggers and keepers alive. When we look at it from this perspective, Israel - Palestine tension, Israel - Iran tension may support this place if the war continues. But the calm on this side is a change in the Israeli administration, although it is a difficult possibility, it may put gold under pressure here, and we have been having difficulty in exceeding 2400 especially lately.

So, if we are following here, I think we should follow these possibilities and take precautions in case of a possible 2320 breakout. If 2320 is not broken, it can be considered as a short-term buying opportunity and a move to 2400. But it is beneficial to act by considering a stop below 2320. We put the trace period around the 2030s, and when you look at a movement of almost 20% on a daily basis since the 2030s, this indicator has taken it without a doubt so far. I think if we can look at it this way, we will not miss these movements in the trend side and trend areas.

Silver, in general terms, there is a correction here as well. But when we look at the recent period, we can say that there has actually been a stronger movement than gold. Because in the movement they started at the same time, silver increased by approximately 30%, gold increased by 20%, while silver experienced a 30% increase. Especially when we look at the history of the important resistance level of 28,900 - 29. If we start to get closes above these levels, it may start a journey towards the 30s and then the peaks it made in the past. Let's pay particular attention to this. In the last period, it started to push the 28,900 - 29 levels a little. If we get a return and start getting daily closes below the trailing margin, the trailing edge is at the level of 28. A possible break of 28 may also increase the downward movement here. It can increase selling pressure. The point I always drew attention to here was that Bollinger always came and could not set independent bars on it and always made harsh corrections.

When we look at the recent period, after the sharp correction at the first attempt, rally movements occurred with the start of Bollinger and independent bars. It is useful to use Bollinger bands in this way. In general, the peaks and upper bands have a high probability of causing overbought and selling, okay, you can interpret it this way, but if the price sits on the upper band and starts throwing independent bars, that is, bars that do not touch the upper band, you can read the chart as a clear rally period, which means you can get really solid returns. I can describe it as a causative factor. It is also useful to look at Bollinger bands in this way. In the negative scenario, 27,400 is an important support in the short term. Before that, you need to be careful about who you follow. If the follower starts to close below, that is, if it starts to close below 28, it brings the possibility of pressure on 27,400 and then the Bollinger peak at 26,400. As long as the trace does not break in the short term, it is interpreted as there being no problem.

For Brent, I stated that particular attention should be paid to the 90 - 92 region. I stated that a correction could come from here and even the correction could be in the 85 - 87 region, which we have already seen. Downward pressure may continue unless we see the price at least settle above 88,800 in the coming days. The previous level was between 84,800 and 85. If this withdrawal breaks this range, we will see that this correction movement, the withdrawal movement continues until the 82 - 80 region on the Brent side. In the short term, it has moved to the negative side. I can say that it is useful to look at it this way as long as it does not exceed 88,800 - 89 levels.

Recent events on the Bitcoin side have increased the bar sizes considerably, there are quite sharp movements. There is already a lot of liquidity on the counter-leveraged side. Especially 59900's, unless this level is broken, 71200 above and 59900's below are the saw zone. Unless 59900 is broken, it will continue to be open to upward reactions. If we start to get prices below 59900, there is a possibility that the movement will harden up to 51200. Let's keep this aside. If I consider the positive scenario of not breaking, the price must first settle above 67000 - 67500 in order to turn positive again. If we do not see this, such a 67000 - 67500 attack will be considered as a sales opportunity for us. When the price settles above 67000 - 67500 again, then the target will be 71200 and then 74000, which is the top level.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

How do you rate this article?

68



Cryptocurrencies and Stocks Articles
Cryptocurrencies and Stocks Articles

In this section, I will have articles about the stock market and cryptocurrencies.

Send a $0.01 microtip in crypto to the author, and earn yourself as you read!

20% to author / 80% to me.
We pay the tips from our rewards pool.