Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-109


There were hot developments. We can say that Iran attacked Israel. But when you look at it in general terms, it is a situation that does not go beyond collusion. Frankly, it is not expected to affect the markets much in this situation unless there are additional developments. Mobility in Bitcoin was quite high and volatile. I can say that this unfortunately caused many people, some of them to make money, and some of them to lose serious money. In this respect, I can say that it is useful to pay attention to leveraged transactions, especially in these periods. Generally speaking, I can say that those who panic lose in the volatility that occurs after such events. In the previous period, during the Russia-Ukraine War, there was a negative movement of 7-8%. But we also saw a rally that started afterwards.

I specifically mentioned this that at that time, many of the people who sold their goods at that time were not able to buy their goods again. Generally, it sold at the bottom. I can say that he was left without any property afterwards. Similarly, many events, such events that cause panic selling, are almost all seen as buying opportunities by the main market makers. We can see that the rally continues, and perhaps after a pause, the rapid upward movement continues. I think it can be interpreted in a similar way, unless all countries are involved in this incident. Frankly, I don't think this could happen either. If necessary, stop loss levels must be determined. I can say that we should act accordingly.

On the Dow Jones side, we see that the movement that started from 32000 to 40000 for a long time continues with a sharp correction after a long time. The trend is broken, the rising trend is broken, and then the movement continues to be suppressed downwards. If I talk about technical levels here, especially the 37500 - 38000 region should be the region where this retreat ends. If it does not pause here, we can see that the downward pressure continues until the 36500 - 36000 range, where it increases significantly. Especially in the future reactions, if it can start pricing above 38900 - 39000, we can think that the bad is now behind us and upward mobility can start again. But when we look at it in general terms, it seems that we will see the continuation of the horizontal course for a while.

There is also an election process on the American side. From this perspective, too many sharp upward movements will not be expected to be the same as before. I can say that it is possible to say that peak movements will not occur in the short term unless there is an additional interest rate cut or such developments. I can state that as long as the 38900 - 39000 region is not exceeded in the short term and the 39400 - 39800 region in general in the medium term, the horizontal movement and downward pressure movement will continue for a while.

Although there has been a similar, slightly more limited retreat in Germany, we have come close to closing the gap here. Especially levels around 18000 are important for us in the short term. If we cannot get a reaction from here and move it above 18200 as soon as possible, the downward pressure will continue for a while and 17700 will be tested. Although we can push it above 18200, the reaction length can be expected to reach 18500 in the short term on the dax side.

If we look at gold, gold is one of the main instruments affected by the global situation and geopolitical situation in general. We saw this before the markets closed, and there was a rapid bar from 2300 to 2400. We also saw the correction afterwards. Yesterday, we especially saw the mobility of gold on the crypto side. Here, from a technical point of view, we see a movement that does not fall below the trail period after the 2000s are passed, all corrections end in the trail period and goes up with a reaction. You can read the chart that the upward movement in gold will be supported as long as we do not see pricing below 2320 in the 2320s. If we get pricing below 2220, you will look at 2300 - 2260 levels. There is a possibility of a correction up to this range if 2320 is broken. But as long as the 2320 level is not broken in the short term, there is no problem on the gold side. I can say that it will continue to be supported upwards.

Similarly, silver continues its sharp upward movement. Here, it is especially useful to pay attention to 27,400 levels in the short term. It immediately closed above the trace period. But I am stating it as a slightly lower level. If it can stay above this level, 27.400, the upward movement will continue. In the short term, 28.500 is important. If the closings above 28.500 continue to occur, if it can start, there will be movement again around 30 here. I can state that it may occur. It is also worth mentioning that if it can get above 30 psychological level, the path will open up a little more. Particular attention should be paid to 27,400, which I have just mentioned below. We can also state that if this place is broken, the possibility of a correction up to 26,500, the Bollinger peak, and the upper band increases.

Here again Brent continues to move above the track period. There is no problem as long as it is not broken, the upward movement can be supported. But it is especially useful to pay attention to the Bollinger peak here. All recent movements have generally corrected from the Bollinger peak. In other words, as long as 92,700 - 93 levels are not exceeded, there is a high probability that the reactions will return from here. But if the pricing is above 93 or 93 - 94, it will be possible to talk about 100. In the coming period, especially 88.8 below is our important tracking level for us. Even if we start to see closures below this level, we will talk about the possibility of a retreat to 87,500 - 85 levels on the Brent side.

If we look at Bitcoin, as I just mentioned, it was one of the instruments that was most affected by the war news, and there was a rapid movement. I will especially pay attention to the 62 - 60 band here. Mobility in this region already causes very rapid mobility. If it cannot exceed the peak and cannot exceed 70000 dollars, there may be hard downward bars. When we look at it from this perspective, the bottom point of the downward hard bars is generally 60000 dollars. So, as long as $60000 below is not broken, there is no big problem. As long as the 60000 - 62000 dollar range is not broken, there is no big problem. But unless we see clear closings above 70000, the saw band, the saw movement will continue. Frankly, it is necessary to think that one should not have too high expectations here. I can say that movements in this range can be considered as a trading opportunity.

I can say that when pricing above $70,000 starts to become more frequent, starts to increase, and $70,000 starts to be confirmed as support, then it will be possible to talk about $80,000 and $90,000. If the negative scenario turns and we start to get closes below $60000, we may experience a rapid retreat to the $54000 - $51000 band. Let me point this out specifically. Because areas that are usually passed quickly can also be broken down quickly. When we look at it from this perspective, I can say that it would be beneficial to be a little more cautious on the Bitcoin side, especially if the prices increase below 60000 dollars.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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