This is the cryptocurrency market outlook, based on my magical cocktail of purely technical indicators. This entails, that bullish or bearish signals given in this series do not portray my sentiment towards any particular project. And by any means this is no advice, financial or otherwise.
The system consists of:
- 3 indicators, handpicked from literally hundreds I've tested. Each offers different sensitivity, each of them quite accurate by itself, together meant to produce an highly accurate signal for entry and an early warning for open trades,
- 3 groups of moving averages - a battle-tested combination from forex markets, for the purpose of getting a bigger picture of the market. They indicate how cautiously I will approach signals from indicators,
- H4 timeframe - I would prefer daily, but I write my posts "in the evening" meaning usually around 20:00 UTC (that's still kinda late in my timezone) and I need closed candles or I risk that indicator will change value after I post and before closing of the daily candle. I don't need to get rich tomorrow, I prefer trading with less noise. Crypto being volatile as it is on lower timeframes is subject to random pumps and overreactions of the market that easily throw technical indicators off track - that is costly when using leverage.
BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, LINK probably everything else.
All possible indicators on H4 timeframe send bearish signals - what do you expect. I went to bed a bit earlier and missed it all - when I got up most of the move was already done. I'm glad I did not open a long position on anything, tempted by yesterdays pump (in hindsight "micro-pump" should I say), but it's a nasty feeling not only missing such opportunity, but also closing LINK short position early. Can't catch them all - unfortunately.
Since there is not much to write about from my leveraged trading I want to share some general reaction to recent dump. Tomorrow first thing in the morning I will look at on-chain data for BTC and look for a specific setups. I think if we were to hit bottom we should have decreased Open Interest significantly - as long as the Open Interest stays high there is an incentive for squeezes and price will keep its volatility. That coupled with renewed downside momentum is not a good perspective, so I'm hoping to see headlines about huge liquidations tomorrow.
I will also watch who sold his BTC in this dip - for now long term holders were standing quite adamant and this was one of the reasons I did not sold my main stash. To get back to the uptrend this has to continue and I have some signs to believe this is the case.
And last but not least, I will look at the exchanges inflows and outflows to judge how scared people got - from what I can see now the volume on exchanges I use is not so high as I would expect so I'm wondering is crypto flowing in. Steady outflow of BTC and especially ETH was another big factor that let me to believe we are going through a correction in a big uptrend, not a reversal - I wonder how big of a dent in this outflow current situation will cause.
Anyway - I'm going out for a weekend so next entry in this diary is to be expected on Monday. Hope we are not all broke by then ;)
Have a nice daytrade,
All tips go to cat treats and catnip :)
Zen Faucet - dropping once a day, straight to your wallet, without min. withdrawal or transaction fees
Farsite - game with NFTs that hold value, you can read about it HERE
This is not a financial advice – I’m no financial adviser, nor is this a legal advice – although I’m a lawyer. This is no advice at all, seriously, don’t take advice from random cats – the Internet is full of them! DYOR!
ADA LONG 16.01.22-19.01.22 +1,17%.
LINK SHORT 18.01.2022-20.01.2022 +8,28%