BTCUSD - Very large market review

BTCUSD - Very large market review

By BlessPatrick | Crypto Switzerland | 11 Oct 2019

It's been a long time I haven't made a complete reevaluation of BTC. So this time it is a good moment to have a complete one. 

Weekly graph


Firstly let's look the large weekly view without any indicators. BTC has been evolving in a very large upward parallel channel since November 2013. And then, since December 2015 it started an enormous upward wedge best seen on the following graph.


If the triangle formation closes, it should follow the path showed there : 


This shows an upward movement that should reach 460'000$ around April 2024 but should still get down around 6'500$ in the next months. And this one does not exclude new upward movements inside the channel that may bring the price around 100-150'000$ in 2020. But please let's not forget that technical analysis isn't a price prediction but gives open doors to step in or out regarding the piece movements. 


If now we check the indicators we can see that Fibonacci's EMAs are failing to support the prices as it is slowly penetrating it. MACD and RSI are negative. Volumes aren't really climbing and are highlighting the market's reluctance at the moment. One thing I like to do is to modify MACD's tools to identify long term movement. I set it up with a fast length 50, a slow length 100 and smoothing at 3 : 


With those settings we can see that since 23rd of Septembre market inverted again on the very long term and came back into a downtrend. So what's the next stop ?


If we look closely we can see that the next strong support we can find is Ichimoku's cloud coinciding with the upward wedge drown earlier... This may confirm the wedge theory and not exclude a price around 6'500$ by the end of the year before climbing again. 

Daily graph


On the daily chart we had that famous symmetrical triangle that broke down on the 24th of Septembre, I won't come again on it as anyone was talking a lot at the moment. But we had a strong support (black line on the graph) that worked very well and was confirmed by the breaking of Fibonacci's EMAs as they both failed to sustain the price at the same time. Price fell back to its previous resistance zone and failed to stay above the descending trend line on the RSI. Some may see a positive movement beginning now, but I would stay careful as no indicators show positive sign on the daily chart. 

Hourly graph (4h)


On a hourly view we can the very nice performance of a downward parallel channel. And this is what happens if we try the exercice with RSI very long like before (with new settings regarding to the number of visible candles : 500, 1000, 50) : 


It exposes the confirmation of a downtrend movement. 

So let's now zoom in :


We can then find a lot of short opportunities, like the triangle or the cup that we see above, but I would stay careful regarding the long view of the market and the other technical issues we can find on the graph that I discussed above. 


Regarding the short term, BTC is evolving in a very large parallel channel. This gives the opportunities of several short term investments in any direction. But it is not the time for me to invest in a long term one, unless the technical analysis discussed here break up. My best advice here would be to invest small positions, test your strategies and be aware for the big shot possibly coming in the next weeks/months. 

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