A critical eye on FORTH Token Big Sellout

By Feax21 | Crypto Monkey | 5 May 2021


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Hamlet, Act III, Scene I

To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause: there's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life;
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
The oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely,
The pangs of despised love, the law's delay,
The insolence of office and the spurns
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? who would fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscover'd country from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all;
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.—Soft you now!
The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins remember'd.

Paraphrasing the legendary quote from Hamlet's Soliloquy, on the occasion of the FORTH Token Airdrop, I would like to quote

To Claim and Sell, or not to Claim and Sell the FORTH Token: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous Ampleforth Airdrop fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of Ethereum Gas Fees troubles,
And by opposing end them?

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In this article i would like to take a closer look over the announcement of Publish0x about claiming the FORTH tokens that correspond to AMPLEFORTH holders primarily earned through Publish0x tipping system.

According to KuCoin blog, the Ampleforth Governance Token (FORTH) is the native governance token that powers Ampleforth, a protocol that automatically adjusts the supply of its native token, AMPL, in response to demand. FORTH holders have the right to vote on proposed changes to the Ampleforth protocol or delegate their votes to representatives who vote on their behalf.

In fact, FORTH is an inflationary token, with future inflation being set at 2 percent annually. Allocation of the FORTH token to the existing Ampleforth ecosystem will be as follows:

  • 67% of FORTH will be distributed to the AMPL community.
  • 33% of FORTH to early backers such as the core development team, advisors, supporters and the Ampleforth Foundation.

Currently, the FORTH Token has a circulating supply of 8.3 Million coins and a max supply of 15 Million. The Forth Token was launch as a "Day One Launch" in conjunction with Coinbase on 21st April 2021 and conducted an airdrop to the Ampleforth community similar the one that took place on the UNISWAP Protocol which it can be further claimed via the following link:

Claim URL: https://www.ampleforth.org/governance/claim

A very analytical guidance for the publish0x members how to claim their FORTH tokens via Metamask can be found on the article [How to Claim Your Dollar Forth Airdrop given by AmpleForth]. Publish0x also provided an extra incentive by organizing an extra mini twitter giveaway motivating Publish0x members to claim their FORTH Tokens and post their claim on twitter [Claim #AMPL $FORTH Tokens, Tweet Screenshot, Win 3x $150 Extra in FORTH!]

According initially with [Igor Tomic]'s Publish0x comment, the airdrop will be available to be claimed until April 16th, 2022. After that date, any unclaimed FORTH Tokens will be placed into a community governed DAO.

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The majority of the Publish0x members that commented to the Publish0x article described their experience of rushing into claiming and trading short their tokens as "positive" and only few started to complain about the high Ethereum Gas Fees that needed.

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My first impression was questionable about the value of the gas fees needed, especially after having my BAT rewards stuck in Metamask for 1.5 month due to insufficiently paid low gas fees, as follows:

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Luckily, my BAT Tokens that were stuck with a pending status on the Metamask waiting to be transferred into my Binance Savings in order to earn interest from them have been finally cleared out. So I have decided to withdraw as well my Ethereum funds in order to take advantage of the interest rate of my ETH flexible account as well. If I knew out that 1 week later I would need them to pay an affordable amount of gas fees in order to claim my FORTH Tokens, I wouldn't have done it. And out of curiosity to see, I connected my Metamask account to the FORTH Token interface in order to examine how big was that airdropped FORTH Token amount, its value and even more importantly how much ETH should I pay for the gas fees in order to declare whether it is profitable or not to claim them.

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Surprisingly, after connecting my Metamask wallet on the AMPLE-FORTH Token Governance platform, I realised that I was eligible for 123.47 Tokens with an astonishing value of roughly 4,800 USDT or roughly 1.46 ETH taking into consideration the current bearish trading rate of $39.18 for the FORTH Token and a rough estimation of 3,300 USDT bullish trading Ethereum rate. And I would like to thank Publish0x that provided me the opportunity of accumulating my AmpleForth funds through its tipping system that made me also eligible for the FORTH token Airdrop.

It is very interesting to notice that according to the following chart, on the 2nd day of its circulation, the FORTH Token reached an ATH of $59.95 but very quickly it fell into a bearish trading run since the majority of the FORTH Token holders decided to trade short their funds. 

When i first checked the gas fees on the Metamask for claiming my FORTH tokens, the value of the gas fees was quite low around $10-$15. Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, I had left only $5 worth of Ethereum on Metamask after withdrawing a quite respected amount into my flexible account not long before, so I had to reject the transactions and I was planning to withdraw an amount of ETH from my Binance Savings to secure at least my FORTH tokens into my Metamask account. When I managed to complete the ETH deposit with a huge delay due to various job obligations, delays from Binance and a "bug" on the FORTH token platform (See UPADATE 1), the gas fees value had already skyrocketed to $56.14 for the 0.016896 ETH gas fee needed for the transaction (without modifying the gas price or or the Gas limit) as the gas fee amount fluctuates very often depending on the ETH price and the traffic on the Ethereum Main Network.

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For sure, I am NOT prepared to waste such a big amount of ETH just to claim the Tokens although the current price of FORTH token is going down and at the same time the value of Ethereum is going up causing my FOMO skyrocketing to the Moon! Nevertheless, during that period i occupied my mind with 3 big questions that arisen from the airdrop:

Question 1: Is it worth to make your move NOW and spend your precious $ETH in order to pay the gas fees and claim the TOKEN amount that corresponds to your AMPL funds  or wait and HODL them on the FORTH Governance Platform at least until July 2021 waiting for the Ethereum upgrading hoping that Ethereum Network Gas Fees will be significantly reduced?

Question 2: And even if you decide to go ahead and waste $50 worth of precious ETH NOW that is being rocketed into the moon, is it worth to trade them short and earn a short term significant profit or HODL them at least on your Metamask Wallet taking advantage of a future bullish rally?

And here it should be well noted that apart from paying Ethereum gas fees in order to claim them from the FORTH platform into the Metamask wallet, the user should also pay relevant gas fees in order to withdraw the tokens from the Metamask wallet into their crypto-exchange account or even UNISWAP in order to exchange them for ETH or any other cryptocurrency

Question 3: Finally, taking into consideration that FORTH is actually a Governace token, when the majority of the FORTH Token holders opted for the short-term profit solution, spending double ETH gas fees in order to claim and sell their tokens, who is the mysterious buyer or cluster of buyers of those lots of FORTH tokens in such a high price?

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Do we have to deal with a mysterious FORTH token Whale or cluster of Whales, who are interested to gather a big percentage of the circulating quantity in order to gain control of the AMPLEFORTH Governance and manipulate the AMPLEFORTH ecosystem and trading behaviour according to their interest, just like the big Bitcoin Whales currently do?

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And here I would like to highlight that the 33% of the FORTH Token circulation according to the KuCoin blog, has been already distributed to the Core Development Team, Advisors, Supporters and the Ampleforth Foundation.

My personal opinion is not to rush into short term solutions. [Igor Tomic] from Publish0x has a similar opinion in his comment as well, as he has stated that he has chosen to HODL possibly for his own personal reasons:

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Also, there is a huge expectation that by July 2021 the gas fees on the Ethereum network will drop significantly according to the Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559 (EIP 1559), co-authored by Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin as it was described on the article [ETH Gas Fees will be lowered in July] on Publish0x and [The Ethereum Improvement proposal 1559 is the squeeze worth the juice] of Cointelegraph and my FORTH token funds are guaranteed and available to claim until April 16th, 2022 according also to the official post of AMPLEFORTH Organization on Medium with title [AMPL + FORTH: Realizing the Full Ecosystem]. After this date, unclaimed FORTH Tokens will be placed in a community governed DAO.” The only question that remains is where the ETH Price will be by then. 

Therefore, for the time being, my FORTH Token strategy is to wait to find an affordable value of the Ethereum network Gas Fees of around $10-$15, max $20 worth of Ethereum in order to claim my FORTH Tokens into my Metamask account and HODL them without selling them short to earn some short term profit. At least, on that way I can participate on Publish0x mini tweet contest #MayTheForthBeWithYou as it is described on the article Claim #AMPL $FORTH Tokens, Tweet Screenshot, Win 3x $150 Extra in FORTH! by [Igor Tomic]

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If my strategy was similar to the majority of the Publish0x members who rushed to receive some short term airdropped profit, then possibly I would have already claimed my FORTH Tokens and sell them to buy ETH or anything else or simply withdraw the FIAT into my bank account.

***Disclaimer: All information found on this article is for informational purposes only. I do not provide any personal investment advice so please make your own research before proceeding to any investment/trading action.***

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