In Retrospect, $FARM Rebound Was Inevitable

In Retrospect, $FARM Rebound Was Inevitable


13 days ago, I released this piece detailing how $FARM was set for a rebound. $FARM was barely @ $119 at that time.

As Elon said; It was Inevitable. The fundamentals that I outlined in the last piece were so strong behind $FARM. It seemed that the price was only lagging behind the fundamentals, and it was just a short amount of time before the price eventually caught up. 

Now, the question I am sure that most of you have is; Is it over yet? Let's examine:

1. TVL on DeFiPulse is wrong

The first thing that I need to mention is that the TVL that DeFiPulse seems to be wrong. DeFiPulse has it at $398 million;

b847c1a7d7be7d0157cb7a0c62264d3eb82361f13608658119d405a12db98984.png

Source: DeFi Pulse

Looking at the TVL stats from CoinGecko, they have it closer to $612 million;

681ce84d27effc35c34091e073e2542a025d6c08f0efdd19c373eb4d4b350c2d.png

Source: CoinGecko

However, the most accurate TVL statistic has to be from the Harvest Finance homepage itself. They have their TVL at $615 million at the moment of writing this;

2f1e909136743f27517dd2987312e58f34bf1649f3a452b51bd019ab32f0a4fb.png

Source: Harvest Finance

This means that the TVL for Harvest Finance is almost $100 million greater than that of Yearn Finance (assuming DeFi Pulse has Yearn’s TVL correct);

1d94908b241922b9143b102df3c0a7c63272587e542f9978ef3d66ce6e82b47b.png

Source: Defi Pulse

Overall, looking at the official stats from the Harvest Finance homepage would provide the most accurate reading of TVL. I admit that I fell into the DeFi Pulse trap by showing that TVL in my last piece. However, the truth shows that the TVL is officially much higher.

2. Harvest has 2x Strategies than YFI

Continuing with Yearn Finance’s comparison, Harvest Finance has almost double the number of strategies than its closest competition in Yearn. They are both in the same niche as they provide consistent yields to their farmers that deposit assets into their respective strategiesies.

However, it seems that Harvest has a wider range of farming strategies for farmers to choose from than Yearn.

Yearn is doing very well itself; it has over 25 different strategies to choose from;

ab574797ca55159e500f000f56d0a5e9374aa514a8ef3ed787e2ef7ef40baf0a.png

Source: Yearn Finance

But Harvest Finance is much further ahead as it has a total of over 43 strategies that you can currently farm with;

531a9692c53e14253bc0cb3a442f79e53778c446f31d9040df914e94b4034a76.png

Source: Farm Dashboard

It not only has more strategies, but it is also offering a higher APY return on all of their strategies when compared with Yearn Finance.

For example, the two highest-earning strategies on Yearn are the crvGUSD vault (49%) and cvrCOMP vault (33.6%). In comparison, we can see that most of the Harvest Finance strategies are above 30% as a baseline. It even has strategies that go as high as 1100% in DAI-BSG and 575% in MUC-USDT.

3. Mcap/TVL Ratio Reveals How Much Room to Grow is there for $FARM

Another fantastic Metric that I like to keep my eyes on is the Market Cap/TVL ratio. It can help show if a project is undervalued or not, judging by if there is more value locked in the protocol itself than the entire market cap of the project.

The Mcap/TVL for Yearn Finance currently sits at 1.81;

c654796aa24f4538ead55dd1e6fda963dff300189366dd5f876f7e61e42a9d09.png

Source: CoinGecko

This shows that the market cap is 1.81 times greater than the total value locked in the protocol. The market cap is much higher than the liquidity locked inside the farming strategies.

In Comparison, the Mcap/TVL ratio for Harvest Finance is currently at just 0.18;

d994ca0ddd58d3adaf6be63ef977e0d97111569814852e20b1592f2135d849fd.png

Source: CoinGecko

This means that there is currently much more liquidity locked into the farming strategies than the actual market cap itself - indicating that the market cap has room to grow much higher, along with the price of $FARM. It can grow almost 10 times until they hit parity with each other. Yes, 10x from now. 

4. Santiment Stats

If you have been following me recently, you will know I am a big fan of the Santiment metrics.

First of all, it seems that both small farmers and whales are holding and stacking up their dear $FARM tokens;

ff7f0cf7af0ae87962262daed0f84a5c01ea134c400a2e57fffce32754b9d956.png

Source: Santiment

Although the smaller whales holding between 1000 and 10,000 $FARM might be stagnating, whales that hold between 10,000 and 100,000 $FARM is on the rise - a very strong bullish signal. Additionally, the total number of smallholders is also increasing quite substantially.

Secondly, the total number of Active Addresses picks up the momentum if you take a closer look on the timeline since 1st Jan 2021.

53897da01a40308c98aa177835837c9dd92abd6ca366b3355edd71cb0e977fa0.png

Source: Santiment

This shows that more users interact with the $FARM blockchain as its userbase continues to see increased activity levels.

5. Next Price Levels

Let’s do some price analysis. $FARM managed to surge by a powerful 100% over the past week and is up by a further 228% over the past month of trading. In the last piece, I had highlighted that $FARM finally broke beyond a falling trend line, and once resistance near $135-$140 was passed, it was going to take off.

Well, it played out quite nicely as $FARM started to skyrocket after it breached the $140 resistance level. The coin continued to surge well past $200 until it hit $295 yesterday. 

70276694449ec73406357cb6552d46928beb153ee4b0981acf899c0cd76fd9b7.png

The next levels of resistance for $FARM lie at $280 (bearish .786 Fib), $295, $300, and $315. Added resistance is then found at $335 (bearish .886 Fib), $355 (short term 1.414 Fib Extension), $377, and $385 (short term 1.618 Fib Extension).

If the buyers blast past $400, additional resistance can be found at $430 (1.272 Fib Extension), $450, and $452 (1.414 Fib Extension). Once we break past the ATH price at around $370, I’ll be back to update you with some new levels.

On the other side, if you are looking for some good entries, $240 is the closest. Beneath that, $210 (.382 Fib), $200, $183 (.5 Fib) should provide some wonderful opportunities. Lastly, if the sellers do unload some holdings, $156 (.618 Fib) might be a great buying price - if it ever gets that low.

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CryptoChartWizard91
CryptoChartWizard91

I dont *always* make good predictions, but when I do they're the best


Crypto Chart Wizard
Crypto Chart Wizard

My personal opinions and analysis of my the crypto projects that I follow. Not a financial advice.

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