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$FARM is set for a Rebound - Deep Analysis

Remember this post? 

$AMPL is set for a Rebound - Deep Analysis

It was spot on. I released it on January 13th, and the price of AMPL did rebound to break back beyond $1.10. I totally nailed it. Now, here's what's coming up next; $FARM

The token behind the yield-farming DeFi protocol Harvest Finance very recently got integrated as a tipping token on this website. In my opinion, this is a very bold move from the team behind Publish0x as Harvest Finance has seen quite a controversial history and has managed to march forward and recover from it. 

You see, Harvest Finance started its lifecycle on a very strong bullish note. It came out in September with $0 value locked inside of its protocol. By mid-October, the Total Value Locked (TVL) inside the protocol had surged to $1.1 billion!

It seemed that DeFi farmers were excited with the prospect of having a protocol manually hunting for the highest-yielding farming options for them and were pouring funds into the protocol to start earning. 

However, just a few days after cracking the $1 billion TVL milestone, a disaster struck Harvest Finance; 


Source: DeFi Pulse

An exploit was found in one of the smart contracts, and a flash loan arbitrage was conducted that caused over $34 million to be drained from one of the liquidity pools that the protocol was using.

As a result, the TVL fell from above $1 billion to drop as low as $300 million in a short few days as farmers scrambled to pull their funds from the protocol during the uncertainty. Farmers were just unwilling to keep hard-earned funds inside the protocol while there was a potential for another attack to happen.

The price for the $FARM token also plummeted. During the peak, when the TVL was above $1 billion, the price of $FARM was trading at around $330. By the time the exploit had occurred, the price of $FARM had plummeted to just beneath $100.

The good news is that the team decided to continue to power forward and do the best job possible to mitigate future attacks. It seems that the way they conducted themselves after the hack has allowed farmers to start to gain confidence back in the product. To catch up with the aftermath of the attack, take a quick look at this great write up about it.

Taking a quick look at the Coinmarketcap chart for $FARM, you can see some clear support emerging just beneath the $100 level;


Source: Coinmarketcap

It has already started to pick up again from here and the TVL in the protocol is beginning to slowly rise as it went above $400 million today;


Source: DeFi Pulse

With this support in mind, combined with the fact that the TVL is back on the rise and that Publish0x has given it a boost by integrating it as a tipping token, one question comes to mind;

Is $FARM finally set for a rebound?

First of all, for a quick overview, let me bring your attention to the following Coinmarketcap chart again;


This time, I have market the times that $FARM has rebounded from this support level since it’s inception. It seems like pretty solid support.

Now, onto the TradingView charts;


Looking at the chart above, you can see that, after dropping from above $300 and rebounding from ~$90 in late-October, $FARM struggled to break the resistance at $134.50 (bearish .236 Fib Retracement).

From there, it started to trade sideways between $80 and this resistance. It visited $134.50 again in mid-December but failed to break it and headed lower to end 2020.

In the first few days of 2021, $FARM went on to rebound from $70 as it started to push higher again. It quickly hit the $100 level but struggled to break the resistance there for the first two weeks of January 2021. This resistance was finally broken at the start of this week as $FARM broke beyond $100.

In doing so, $FARM also broke above a month-old falling trend line and continued to push higher above the 100-day moving average level - both significant bullish signals for what is about to come.

Looking forward, the first level of substantial resistance lies at that $134.50 level. Once that is broken, resistance can be found at $145, $155, $173, and $205.

On the other side, we can expect strong support at $100. Beneath that, support is found at $90, $80, and $70.

One last thing for me to mention on the technical side is the fact that the RSI is back above the mid-line. This shows that the market momentum is in the hands of the bulls right now.

Other Buying-Opportunity Signals 

The first signal for me to show you is the TVL;


Source: DeFi Pulse

Looking at the quick lines that I have drawn on the chart, you can see clear support emerging at these levels. It does look like the TVL is about to start increasing over the following few weeks as Farmers look to get in on the 30% Profit Sharing Pool again.

This is confirmed when we look at some Etherscan analytics for the Profit Sharing pool itself;


Source: Etherscan

You can see that transactions heading into the pool are indeed rising and have been for the entire period of 2021.

The next signal I would like to present is the fact that small farmers are starting to increase their holdings again;


Source: Santiment

Holders with between 0.1 and 100 $FARM tokens are all on the rise as farmers of different levels start to re-join their harvesting efforts.

The last signal I would like to draw your attention to is to do with the Network Growth;


Source: Santiment

It shows that the Network Growth increased quite significantly PRIOR to the $FARM token rebounding. This is an excellent bullish signal because it shows that this is not a market-driven rebound that is currently occurring. Instead, it is a price rebound based on sound on-chain metrics.


These signals combined seem to point to the fact that $FARM is now finally recovering from the disastrous month it witnessed during October 2020. It took a good few months for this project to recover, but it looks extremely promising for a rebound ahead with the signals mentioned.


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I dont *always* make good predictions, but when I do they're the best

Crypto Chart Wizard
Crypto Chart Wizard

My personal opinions and analysis of my the crypto projects that I follow. Not a financial advice.

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