The Perfect Bitcoin Market Storm? follow the WHALES and WOLVES

The Perfect Bitcoin Market Storm? follow the WHALES and WOLVES

And Bitcoin is going along for the ride...,

likely IMO to US $15K before 'Turkey Time", coming the US citizen's way in late November, that is if the past two weeks of steady volume buy INTO Bitcoin by the Whales and Wolves growth continues.

TK note - Thanksgiving in the USA is Late November, last Thursday of the month, a time when people need  more cash for purchases, college top ups for the kids, and the early holiday shopping madness of "Black Friday", so expect BTC prices to likely fall back a reasonable amount just prior and after US Thanksgiving as most consumers and some "wolves" and maybe a few whales cash out causing the BTC price to fall, which has been the case the last couple of years.

Have a look at the chart below... for the last month  showing BTC's rapid rise in price early in the month, then down a lowering of the price just as rapidly due to profit taking by Wolves and Whale "Hodlers", and now  later this past two weeks a steady "Bull" climb with building volume, not so "spikey" as between the period we saw after July 4th, July 8th to 10th earlier in the month.


Last Month  2019 Bitcoin Price Activity July 6th to Aug 6th, 2019


The current Bitcoin "Ride" upward is likely partly driven by savvy whale and small investors hedging their positions with a partial buy of Bitcoin,  a reflection of their current  risk aversion to ever worrying market information and news showing the overpriced public stocks they are holding, where largely FAANG (FB, Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix, Google) make up a larger percentage of their holdings and, where these FAANG Stocks and other similar publicly traded stocks  don't reflect accurately what they earn on Main St. selling products and services.

Various information services such as Bloomberg present this public stock price disparity information as the P/E Price Earnings  The "Gap" showing the overpriced valuation of the FAANG  in Dark blue and other related stocks which make up the bulk of the Stock market, relative to their "Main St" Valuation in LIGHT blue is the reason for Whale and Wolf investment concern, and partly for the rise in "BTC" Bitcoin buying volume we have been seeing the last two weeks.


The LIGHT Blue line shows valuation based on how well the publicly traded stock of companies are doing based on earnings after tax from the sale of products and/or services (So called Main St. result) versus what the Price vs. Earnings is actually trading at on their listed public stock markets, represented by the DARK blue line.

TK Note- The current P/E disparity Gap was largely engineered over a ten year period of time via large Corporate ( Bill Clinton legalised stock buy back in 1998, before that it was illegal and CxO suite company leaders in the public space went to jail for this ) stock buy backs which began in earnest at much higher rates after the crash of 2008, used by the CxO suite of publicly traded companies large and small as an easy way to prop up corporate publicly trade stock "EPS" Earnings per Share by buying back stock to reduce the number of stocks, driving the average price of the share up, to continue to guarantee an ever increasing dividend payout to their public stock holder investors. The savvy investors knows this is happening  on a daily basis and follows company financial reports and board votes on such matters BEFORE these invest or shift investments around, the smaller investor is usually the type reacting and not tracking such "press releases" of public companies closely enough, which is always a losing investment strategy.

Bitcoin's "coat tail" ride is  also a reflection of the recent change in investor strategy and aversion to risk they see in the FAANG class of stocks, a risk which is has been mostly averted this past month as  these investors place a larger percentage of their proceeds from sale of FAANG stocks into "inflation resistant" solid "stores of value", with Gold being the big benefactor the last month as artificially suppressed gold price manipulation controlled by a few big "Gold Bug" holders (large commercial and central banks)  has been been  influenced upward by a surge of many more investors, some of the  "crypto" whale class. See Gold's activity below this past month:



Gold Price activity the last Four Weeks since Aug. 6th 2019.


The other factor IMO improving Bitcoin's ride upward toward US $12K and beyond in a very steady way is the fact NEGATIVE INTEREST Worldwide debt being issued by Central banks and  Commercial Bank and Corporate Bond Issuers has risen US $ 1 TRILLION from US 13 Trillion to US$ 14 Trillion in a little over one week. 

This fact ABOVE, even more than the FAANG Stock collective drop in price, means SAVVY (most of them whale) investors can no longer place low risk money into bonds and expect a return, so they are placing their money else where in GOLD, and increasingly, although in smaller amounts to assets with perceived higher trading risk- ie those stocks which move up and down a lot, with profit taking and speculative buying going on, with BITCOIN being one of "those" stocks.

Here is a Bloomberg chart below showing the Worldwide Debt offered with negative interest rates:


Worldwide Debt issued with NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES increased US $1 Trillion in 1 WEEK this past week..



While the average person and student must pay back their mortgage or student loan with interest and cannot escape from it, this is now not the case for Commercial Banks and large Corporations issuing new debt and bonds with negative returns.

In effect, banks and large corporations are retiring their old interest charging debt loads without this new negative interest debt load, without having to pay interest, doing so, At the Taxpayer's and consumer's expense, all the while slightly shrinking the money supply of fiat currencies around the world, as they effectively BURN FIAT, to make money scarce at the consumer level (that means you the consumer, get to pay a higher rate which yields a higher interest spread to the group providing the loan, which looks like the same interest rate to you, with fatter margins provided to the group issuing the loan),. All this negative interest rate debt  and bond issue will continue to drive up prices of their Stock (as they will use proceeds for stock buy back)and  drive the price up of other Hard assets such as land and housing, food and utility or service charges (for the Internet), and even Art. This new negative interest debt, albeit a bit smaller in principal at time of payback, is still used by the corporations to power their business of "vanquishing" the smaller opposition, where some more "honest" corporations interested in long term viability will  try to prop up their Main St. numbers and closes the PE Gap to keep investors on board. Others will have CxO suite types "gut the company" and run off with their matured stock option bonuses, living the wreck of the company to die. (Think Sears, or if you are a movie fan, think "Pretty Woman" and the corporate take out artist "wolf" Richard Gere portrayed in that movie, trying to take over the shipping magnate and gut the business for profit, in a private buyout move) 

The above action, of corporate buy backs combined with negative interest rate debt is "Gaming theory" at its worst.

THE RISE AND FALL OF THE US $ DOLLAR, ARE WE AT THE TIPPING POINT? (into a new "basket of currencies" market mix, which includes Bitcoin)

All of the above means the investor can expect  rapid currency deflation of the US Dollar is coming once the US dollar "safe haven" status is lost completely i n the coming months as they realise the US Govt  rate drops are nothing more than QE "Quantitative Easing" #4, and another reason to print more money to cover these "negative interest" debt and bond issues made by large commercial and banks and corporations  to keep "kicking the current 40+ year old Ponzi scheme can called Fiat, down the road for a few more years, at least until after the US election in 2020.

WIN/WIN Main St. Economics has been  replaced by "I WIN you lose" Financial Market Economics..

It used to be Western economies driven by Main Street  "WIN/WIN" business deals were a hallmark. Now it's every one for themselves prior to what is predicted to be a deflation of the US dollar and its buying price as the last Fiat currency to experience deflation (This has already happened across the Western world and Asia/Pacific) 

BITCOIN's Parallel Economic Universe. It's ready. Are you?.. FOLLOW THE WHALES AND WOLVES

The "Crypto Whales and even more than a few "Wolves of Wall St." are shifting their wealth into gold, and Bitcoin as well as a few quality alt coins and tokens (Bitcoin is always the first stop of speculators seeking higher short term returns, before they dive into the alt-coin and token market to distribute their Bitcoin stores of value into different risk/return classes of tokens and alt-coins with decent Bitcoin liquidity.


Bitcoin is now at 68.2% market dominance, I expect this to go down a bit in the next two weeks as most of these investors will seek higher returns in other alt-coins and tokens, both in the short term, and the long term, which means there are some bargains out there in the alt-coin and token space with good sustainable business models designed to deliver good Main St. value.  The rest of them are speculative coins so "players"  beware when you step up to that type of casino table and only place a bet you can afford to lose, 100% in the short term. What I do know is the "wolves" seek and like higher returns (always) and understand how to manage risk, in the world of fiat, and they are fast learners, whales not so much, they are hodlers, so look for the wolves to start rolling their bitcoin into other altcoins and tokens to test "returns" there a bit more, in a short term speculative "pump and dump" way, and that IMO means less tracking of alt-coins and tokens to the rise and fall of BTC, and more volatility in the alt-coin and token space, as the speculators with the "wolf like" behaviours 'step up to the table" more often to "roll the dice" a bit more in the crypto space, armed with their own set of trading tools.

TK over and out..


PS- I learned today Iran has started mining Bitcoin because of restricted access to gold purchases, so the world is changing, fast!



Macro Cryptonomic Observations & Insights for investors small & big. I educate, offer tips, forecasts re: tech & people drivers operating "under the hood" moving the crypto market. Working on SOVRINTown Managed transparent & honest evoting & govt spend

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