Hope you guys are all doing well and keeping safe.

We are witnessing one of the worst and best sides of humans during this pandemic. 

We are not sure if this was man made debacle or nature's wrath for not staying human or is it just cosmos doing their cycle thing.  No one knows for sure.  Everyone has theories.   Is this the Trojan horse than brings 'mass vaccination' to come to pass?  Is this the cliff dive into greatest depression we have ever seen?

All is not lost and all is not gloom and doom.  We have been seeing a lot of good deeds by the amazing citizens of this world showing compassion, empathy and great brotherhood.  So, in spite of the predicament we find ourselves in, the world is still intact, noble and alive.  Obviously the noble and alive form the 99.999% or more of this world and we are forced to focus on under .0001% of 'negativity' on news channels.  This has never been more truer than today when people are getting more dose of shity news than they need or deserve.

History is being made on multiple levels right in front of our eyes and we are living through it.  A sub-group of people are witnessing a totally different type of history being made.  They are tuned into Bitcoin halving and they think the world is never going to be the same after tomorrow.

Questions that may be lingering in your head!

                                             Is fiat dying? 

                                            Are we entering a great depression? 

                                            Will bitcoin become the global reserve?

I will attempt to provide my point of view on these and other questions along the way.  If you agree or disagree with my point of view, that is ok, in fact, I would request you to provide me your perspective so that I can learn and adjust my POV.   

It seems obvious at this point but I dare not leave anything to assumption - what you are about to read is an opinion of mine, whether or not it is backed by the facts.

Scenario ONE: Extremely bullish, at least for bitcoin

Stock to flow ratio, higher low averages, demand-supply shock, increasing demand, growing Bitcoin ATMs, and yada yada yada, everything points to one fact, Bitcoin is here to stay, according to the Bitcoin fanatics.  We know, and history is proof of this, Bitcoin cannot stay put - if it stays alive it jumps up and down.  No one knows how high it can jump or how low it can fall.  We only have 10 years worth of data and 'history is never an indication of future performance'.

General consensus among the crypto enthusiasts and some forward thinking financiers seems to be:

• We will soon find the treatment and vaccination for the COVID and things will start to go back to normal and we will bounce back in a V shaped recovery by the end of this year
• Most jobs will be restored and pressure on the healthcare facilities and economy will reduce
• Employers will offer greater flexibility to their employees
• Lot of people will realize that they don't need a lot of things that they thought they needed - this will increase number of minimalists around the world
• Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory to hit the new highs of, depending on who you ask, $50,000 to $1 Million in the next 2-5 years
• Supply chain will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Blockchain technology
• Few alt coins will do extremely well and many alt coins will wither out and die down in next 2-5 years
• More and more governments will include Bitcoin as part of their reserves

Scenario 2: Slow but assured recovery for the economy

This scenario is that of moderation.  No extreme gloom but no rose petal walks either.  

• We will find ways to get back to work by August with some precautionary measures
• We will get some 'treatment' that reduces the mortality rate and increases confidence
• Many jobs that were gone during pandemic will return, but not all
• Economy will pick back up and catch up to its pre-pandemic trajectory by late 2021
• There will be moderate inflation in the US but somewhat extreme inflation around the world
• Real Estate will tank during 3rd and 4th quarter of 2020 and only pick back up again in later part of 2021 or early 2022 (RE picks up after job market recovers and falls AFTER the jobs have already been lost, so there is always a lag)
• Bitcoin will be seen as 'store of value' by many countries - new layers of quantum computer resistant protocols will come to Bitcoin
• Stablecoins will give access to the USD to people around the world
• Facebook's Libra will carry torch for the Digital US Dollar and avoid a hostile takeover by Chinese Digital Yuan
• Companies will get creative about remote working and cut costs down from fixed real estate expense
• Companies around the world will establish new manufacturing hubs outside China as a backup plan; India-Indonesia-Malaysia-Vietnam could be beneficiaries; China Distancing will be a thing
• Human perspective of nature will change and more people will use 'sustainable' practices 

Scenario THREE: The gloomy demise of the dollar, economy and Bitcoin

Worse case scenario.  I personally do not think this scenario will carry out.

• People will grow fatigued and exhausted by living in the fear and they let it go, which creates a big wave of the outbreak and no one will heed to the warnings
• We will see a bigger mortality and eventual dying down of the virus (since most people will grow immune)
• If it is man-made - the strain will continue to mutate faster and we will keep seeing new waves each year (similar to flu)
• Economies around the world will tank and elites will take this opportunity to consolidate and grow bigger
• Real Estate will lose 50% or more value in the US and across the world
• Fiat will lose its meaning as many hard working people will realize that they have spent their work to collect color paper
• As people get apprehensive about going out - a perfect set up for robot based services will emerge
• Universal Basic Income will become a reality
• Quantum computers will tear blockchains apart and bitcoin is defeated and alt coins will be a thing of the past
• Government issued digital dollars will come to pass and negative interest rates will force people to spend money thus stimulating the economy to new heights, this in turn will send Dow Jones to new heights of over 50,000 points
• Billions will be replaced by Trillions
• Inflation will eat up savings of hard working individuals while rich get even richer by consolidating during the downturn
• The existing cold war between the US and China (and its allies) could break out into a full out war (WW III)

I started out this article to list out likely outcomes for the near future and ended up sounding like a soothsayer.  I assure you I am not.  

In my personal opinion, we might see few bits from scenario one, many bits from scenario two and a small portion of outcomes from scenario three play out in the near future.   

What I would like to see is a quick solution to the virus, quicker recovery of economy and bounce back from the setback.