This article is not to tell how to spot a shitcoin or any special techniques to help you become a good trader or any kind. It is just my purely speculative opinion about the so-called “shitcoin” cycle.
What is shitcoin?
Any crypto that was created just for pump and dump. You can read all fascinated definitions from Investopedia but simply, it is a vehicle for creators or core team members to pump and dump.
Throughout the entire price chart, you can find a peak and only a peak throughout the years. Like a shape of a 💩.
Every crypto starts its shitcoin status
I created the chart simply from the technology life cycle. It is a shitcoin cycle. Let me explain what each stage represents.
When crypto was issued, people speculated about its value. Of course, there wasn't the history of such coins whatsoever. Creators or their teams will market their coin so hard with all possible potential but they may never all occur. In order to get out of the shitcoin stage, you need either community adoption or self-evolving.
“Oh shit” stage
It is a stage where shitcoin can potentially evolve. For example, when someone spent Bitcoin to get a pizza in May 2010, people realized Bitcoin may have the potential to become something big. It is a stage that can push the coin forward.
However, the coin may become a meme coin after all.
Dogecoin is a meme successful story. Bitcoin was always a meme coin and even nowadays. Meme coins have the advantage of building an army (I meant a community) to promote the coin.
The larger the community, the better chance to evolve into the next stage.
Get real phase
This phase is when the coin starts to fulfill all the promises the white paper addressed. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer system without a third party which is completely fulfilled. Ethereum is an online community for gamers that is completely fulfilled. Dogecoin is a meme coin that is fulfilled.
Along with their mission fulfilled, itself will generate another mission to accomplish. Bitcoin is digital gold, Ethereum is a decentralized internet and financial system. Dogecoin is a rocket trip payment system to the moon.
Shitcoin confirmation phase
This stage is the most dangerous stage after a new mission was issued. Many coins may still fail back into shitcoin status if they do not evolve to fulfill their mission.
There are other factors that may drawback the development of coins. One aspect is institutional investors against whales.
Too big of whales may have influenced its technology improvement decisions as it will be lacking just like Dogecoin which has never improved that much since 2013 since its debut.
Too much institutional involvement may indirectly impact its technology and make its network more centralized. Bitcoin is heading this way. Ethereum is heading this way as well.
If coins cannot survive this stage, they will be confirmed as shitcoin and their valuation will crash to move to the final stage. If coins survive this stage, they will go back to the meme stage and repeat to 3rd and 4th stages until it exhausts its evolving technology.
Technology plateau stage
This stage can mark the end of the cryptocurrency journey. Some have a long way to go before heading this stage, others may not be so lucky to have a journey but immediately reach this stage.
This is the end of crypto as many people are left to believe what it was and there is no more community support and its technology is outdated without improvement from coders and developers.
You can name many of those coins. One such example is NameCoin.
I kept talking about NameCoin because it was the last project Satoshi Nakamoto joined before disappearing.
You probably won’t hear anything from NameCoin because it was a great idea but less community support and died out without further upgrading.
The example illustrates: where Bitcoin at the phase
I think Bitcoin is a transition phase from “meme” to “get real”. The price is steadily climbing upward but there are more challenges outside of its control such as institutional adoption. We don’t know if institutional investors may influence future Bitcoin technology implementation as currently there are voluntary communities to work on and each node will vote for proposals. At some point, institutional influence may grow bigger to dominate the technology improvement decisions which may put a ceiling on the top of its valuation and its future growth. Examples are Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Mark Cuban, Jack Dorsey, and many more companies executives that adopted Bitcoin in some way to influence people but also influence Bitcoin technology adoption such as lightning work.
We will see how it will evolve.
My opinion is that everything crypto starts with a shitcoin label. You need to work your way out to become something else than just 💩.
Shitcoin can become 💎 if their community is strong and developers work recklessly to find a solution for everyone to learn and use. It creates a public good rather than benefits an individual or a small handful of people.
It can go to the 🌝 as meme status with only strong community supports but it will not be sustainable in the long term.
Or it can just be a 💩 that everyone will forget at the end of the day.
Well, I hope you enjoy my speculation and my opinion. I do intend to leave the economic cycle out of this article because I think my next article is about the shitcoin economy!
Photo by Tom Roberts on Unsplash
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Disclosure: I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose cryptocurrencies are mentioned in this article. This information is only for educational