In the past, people have talked about Bitcoin being driven by a couple of key drivers - hedge (safe capital); mass adoption, transactional fluidity, technology innovation; scarcity and first crypto status; speculation (risk capital). Here is my view on Bitcoin's price future.
Chart: Bitcoin Price History (1Year)
I think if Bitcoin was a hedge, then the contemporary Coronavirus Pandemic and "global" lockdown (160 countries or so) are two Black Swan events that should have supported a price appreciation, not a major pullback. So for its first major hedge test it failed imho. This may change in the future based on scarcity and the price level (as I will elude to later)
In the middle ground is mass adoption , transactional fluidity and technology innovation. It has not happened (still the crypto crowd with some growth) and has to compete with other crypto with better characteristics (TPS, tx confirmations, miner decentralisation, peak fees, business models, and advanced features).
Scarcity and the first crypto status play a big part into the crypto 'Gold' story. I think these are still huge for Bitcoin. And yet to play out fully. The Bitcoin halvening is coming up in May/June (falling from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC). And lots of games will be played before hand by the big players. But with about only 14 million BTC (after 4 million lost in wallets etc) on the market and the upcoming lower block reward...this is putting more pressure on the market and it's not linear. These are the big supply side drivers.
I think on the back of scarcity, Bitcoin will rise with speculation demand (risk capital). Only crypto offers super normal returns. And the Institutional money is increasing. Not fast but slowly. All the major market players now have access to custodial bitcoin (like NYSE). Just 1% of big money portfolios would boom the Bitcoin price. More products will come into place to channel money into Bitcoin.
My Final Thoughts...
So I think Bitcoin (BTC) will still break its ATH (c$20k USD). But without the hedge aspect and be more volatile. At some stage later this year and 2021 Bitcoin will soar to new heights - $50/60k (with a higher peak), pull back again (but shorter), before it moves skyward. And I don't think its high energy POW will hold it back.
Once Bitcoin reaches new heights. The hedge aspect and crypto 'gold' aspect is more likely to come into play. The more valuable it is. The more people will want some of it. Especially when it is scarcer than the year before! I think this is sound and not too optimistic. Don't get me wrong big players will still mess a round with Bitcoin. To get more of it and profit as average joe's expense. But better to be in to win.
Time will tell. Place your probability bets ladies and gentlemen. The past Bitcoin runs have been fun. The next one will be too! And it just might make you wealthy ;)
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