What a difference two days make...
Bitcoin absolutely destroys first day ETF record on Wall Street
After some crystal ball time in the first week of the New Year 2024, me thinks
Blackrock's BTC ETF will be the biggest and one of the first to redirect much of the FED excess FIAT printed dollars during the last 3 years, dollars hoarded by those on Wall Street in various forms, (as of today US $1.6B found its way to Blackrock and 10 other BTC ETFs in SPOT form in the first minute of trading), to shore up their working capital position so they exit from Chapter 11 after reorganizing much delayed payments with debtors.
with Today Jan 11th 2024 triggering everyone now on Wall Street to re-calibrate their risk mitigation strategy
expressed as their mix of investments to gain SPOTS Bitcoin ETF and access to redeem in Real Bitcoin and also change their Gold and other hard store of value positions accordingly.
It's a big NYC ETF watershed event Jan 10th, 2024 SEC approval.
For the rest of the investor Cryptosphere its wait and see, buyer beware, or should be.
One should note that this is not a first mover event by Blackrock as all of NYC WS involved in filing ETFs for Bitcoin are moving in a coordinated manner to create what really is a Gold Comex like Bitcoin Derivative market, with one real difference,
That is, when a holder of a Blackrock Bitcoin ETF asks for their hard store of value back after the term is up, Blackrock can pay you in FIAT and not Bitcoin if they so wish,
So SPOT Bitcoin ETF Buyer beware! Read the fine print of the Bitcoin ETF SPOT offer.
As such
I took sometime to contemplate how the Top 100 Cryptosphere makeup will shift as a result.
The First BIG Question?
How will this BTC ETF news impact the ERC 20 'enabled' crowd in 2024 and beyond?
The Second Question?
Who wins big in the Bitcoin 'BTC' part of the Cryptosphere because of this first time ever wave of SEC BTC ETF Approvals?
The Third Question?
Who gains the least (or loses out) , namely how are CBDC projects impacted by this BTC ETF News?
OK, before we jump in to answer the above questions, lets first get the BTC ETF definition right:
Generally according to Wikipedia-
"ETFs are an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is also an exchange-traded product, i.e., it is traded on stock exchanges. ETFs own financial assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, debts, futures contracts, and/or commodities such as gold bars."
As far as the BTC variant goes, and there are two of them, SPOT and otherwise,
according to my 'handy, dandy" Brave Browser AI assisted Summarizer quoting four reasonable sources
the Brave Summarizer says- "A Bitcoin ETF is a basket of assets that trades on a stock exchange.0 There are two main types of Bitcoin ETFs: spot and futures. A spot Bitcoin ETF provides direct exposure to the current market price of Bitcoin.3 On the other hand, a Bitcoin futures ETF issues publicly traded securities that offer exposure to the price movements of Bitcoin futures contracts.1 A Bitcoin ETF is managed by a firm and listed on a traditional stock exchange.2 The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not approved a spot Bitcoin ETF yet."0 coindesk.com 0
cftc.gov 1
bankrate.com 2
theblock.co 3
Ok now that we have a better understanding of ETF straight from the computer geek fashioned rules of AI,
(except for the last part because the Brave use of the Meta AI LLAMA LLM model is a day behind or so, given BTC ETFs are now approved)
It's important to also note AGAIN, the SPOT Blackrock ETF for BTC offered by Blackrock will own some Bitcoin to back the ETF, Blackrock are under no specific obligation to pay you back in Bitcoin and can also use FIAT to back the value of their ETF, and pay you the investor who invested in a piece of their Blackrock SPOT BTC ETF back in FIAT at some later date.
OK now Let's try to answer the first question viewing this through the TKO Report crystal ball:
How will this BTC ETF news impact the ERC 20 'enabled' crowd in 2024 and beyond?
Brave LEO AI using the LLAMA2 13b (billion token) Large Language model spits out this bit of partly inaccurate general fluff I have now learned to expect, given my status of free 'LEO' user:
"The approval of a new BTC ETF is expected to have a positive impact on the ERC20 ecosystem in 2024 and beyond. It may attract more institutional investors and increase liquidity, which could benefit ERC20 tokens and their respective projects. However, the impact may not be uniform across all ERC20 tokens, and some may not benefit as much as others. It's important to conduct thorough research and due diligence before making any investment decisions."
Wise 'motherhood and apple pie' advice LEO, Thanks?
First this LEO answer does not encourage me to sign up to #LEO at US $14.00 per month, Sorry #Brave.
Second, the thought crossed my mind that 'mammary glands on a Bull, if they existed, might be more useful'? ;)
Third, imo the real crypto investor challenge in 2024 is still going to be sorting out which #ERC-20 tokens to bet on which might be positively impacted by this new Flood of FIAT through the #BTC to #ETH or BTC to US $ #Stablecoin 'fee based' spigots .
This past week that #ERC20 bet in hindsight, would likely have been Celestia Labs, which in anticipation of BTC ETF approvals rose nicely the past week?
Well not so fast... Celestia Lab's self proclaimed to be very fast #FuelVM running #SWAY Smart Contracts #SC might be part of their investor speculator appeal driving the #Celestia Market Cap up 28% in the past seven days to Top the Market Cap 'first fold' charts on Coingecko
So one has to (not rely on AI) and do their homework "under the hood", one ERC 20 altcoin at a time to really understand their Market Cap price moves and volume growth.
Celestia is just one example I use to encourage you all to do your own homework.
DEFI will most certainly gain more #TVL total Value Locked because of this new Flood of FIAT comin our way.
The currently recovering DEFI market segment of the Cryptosphere is today still largely an ERC 20 play,
Now because today bank interest rates are high for home mortgages and leased vehicles,
TKO Report expects this new wave of SEC approved BTC ETFs coming our way in the next few NYC WS coordinated filing
looks a lot like the plot from "Escape from New York" for the 'Trad Investors' cuz they know the US $ thing is over...
11 BTC ETF Gangsters and counting
With the Cryptosphere Total Market Cap currently US $ 1.9 Trillion,
this VERY new wave of ETF issues amounting to 1% of the US $1.9 Trillion Market Cap dy 1, Jan 11th 2024 are going to need many BTC hodlrs to sell off their Bitcoin to back partly their versions of BTC ETFs which has the effect of ETF issuers automatically buying up BTC in the
the Cryptosphere so as to actively soak up what can really be described as earlier issued FIAT or
Also expect these BTC ETF issuers will move (as Whales with different names) to grab the Cryptosphere's current supply of US Stablecoins to be used to back these new ETF issues as TVL, since these firms like Blackrock and Van Eck can pay their #SPOT BTC ETF investors back quickly in US $ per the terms approved by the SEC.
As investors exit their BTC ETF positions down the road, 3, 6, 12 months later or more, depending on the terms offered by the BTC ETF issuer, that return flow in likely mostly US $ Stablecoins or US$ directly will fatten DEFI vaults to open up MORE peer to peer lending to crypto holders at reasonably competitive interest rates,
where winning DEFI solutions are likely to be undercutting the interest rates offered by traditional lending institutions in what are largely today's Commercial Banks failing all around us,
ONLY if those crypto educated hodling folks seeking DEFI loans are willing to lock in their ERC 20 altcoin Hoddle stash over DEFI loan issuer longer terms to re-mortgage their home or cover a new vehicle lease, in order to justify the DEFI lender's ask, where the DEFI issuer loan may indeed be 100% backed by both BTC ETFs and US Stablecoins.
Ok what's the hitch?
Well to say it again, any form of SEC approved BTC ETF issue are potentially backed largely by FIAT US $ with built in buying power erosion.
We in the Cryptosphere, all know that FIAT stores of value lose purchasing power every time Commercial Banks over value the real estate they are lending against by issuing mortgages to under-capitalized buyers and,
that the US $ is losing purchasing value daily as the US $ money supply continues to expand at an alarming rate, with nothing but air backing it, the air being the hot air promise to pay (with mysterious US Treasury Notes) coming from the avatar known as Sleepy Joe.
Let's face it, the current Biden regime as directed by shareholders of the FED, continues to print crazy amounts of US $ FIAT money to supply their various nefarious 'self enrichment operations where US $ exported always return minus commission paid to the stakeholders propping up the Senate vote to send US $ abroad in the first place, be it Ukraine, Israel or other 'states in need' provided they use the money to by American, which is these days lots of aging military gear (Most of it Multi-million $ gear blown up by cheap US $50k RU hand launched Drones.)
Banks themselves also directly inflate the FIAT money supply every time their Bank home mortgage lenders over value real estate by accepting the price demanded by the home seller more often than not, thus rewarding sellers and the banks themselves with what are over inflated valuations of their properties ( thus expanding the money supply and devaluing the purchasing power of the US Dollar) to back lending to home buyers who already spending 40-50% of this disposable monthly income on mortgage payments.
Cryptosphere Silver Lining? DEFI Lender Competitive Lending Rates?
It's a VERY tenuous situation out there, where this western world we live in every day, has only 'silver lining' coming imo in the Cryptosphere and that is, the crypto DEFI lenders being able to undercut the Centralized Commercial Bank lending interest rates to would be homeowners, to help slow what is becoming runaway inflation everywhere, largely driven by both Bank and Home seller greed, but also BTC ETF issuer greed, Especially Blackrock.
That said though, not all DEFI lenders of record in the crypto space should be trusted and you all need to do your own homework to understand who is actually behind each DEFI play.
Right from the senate.gov website and Wikipedia, The root of all our financial woes then and now are out there in plain sight for any crypto investor to examine:
See the difference? That's right, there isn't any.
Especially when a savvy investor truly examines Blackrock, these investors will find out Blackrock is really THE huge owner of multi-tenant dwelling condos, new suburban real estate development projects and commercial and consumer rental properties worldwide, which are held through their own subsidiary and investment controlled holdings AND, making Blackrock THE BIGGEST SELLER of REAL ESTATE and WORLD'S BIGGEST RENTER IN THE WEST.
That said, who is Larry Fink CEO of Blackrock really representing? Well Blackrock is really acting as the 'fence' or front for the many Top 100 Family Trusts who hide their own investment strategies from authorities trying to tax the shite of them. It's a gigantic game of 'cat and mouse' designed by a few cadres running Central banking, found right at the very top of this global racketeering operation, designed to keep everything unstable, so markets keep going up and down, where the money is really made on positions short and long in the put and call space.
In the US and worldwide these Family Trusts deftly place their money in BlackRock directly but mostly acquire interest in Blackrock indirectly in Blackrock by investing in companies that invest in Blackrock who right now hold 85% of BlackRock. It's one big elitist '#racketeering' club and, you are not in it.
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value Vanguard Group Inc 12,868,201 Sep 29, 2023 8.65% 10,194,832,242 Blackrock Inc. 9,713,177 Sep 29, 2023 6.53% 7,695,264,478 State Street Corporation 5,728,624 Sep 29, 2023 3.85% 4,538,502,364 Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited 5,096,739 Sep 29, 2023 3.43% 4,037,891,472 Bank of America Corporation 5,038,780 Sep 29, 2023 3.39% 3,991,973,455 Morgan Stanley 3,369,035 Sep 29, 2023 2.26% 2,669,117,978 Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. 3,329,550 Sep 29, 2023 2.24% 2,637,835,987 Capital Research Global Investors 3,169,224 Sep 29, 2023 2.13% 2,510,817,714 Geode Capital Management, LLC 2,619,450 Sep 29, 2023 1.76% 2,075,259,262 Wells Fargo & Company 2,598,823 Sep 29, 2023 1.75% 2,058,917,521
Top Mutual Fund Holders
Holder Shares Date Reported % Out Value Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 4,182,414 Sep 29, 2023 2.81% 3,313,517,491 Vanguard 500 Index Fund 3,372,057 Sep 29, 2023 2.27% 2,671,512,158 Schwab Strategic Tr-Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 2,352,577 Aug 30, 2023 1.58% 1,863,829,128 Washington Mutual Investors Fund 2,336,493 Oct 30, 2023 1.57% 1,851,086,579 Fidelity 500 Index Fund 1,625,004 Oct 30, 2023 1.09% 1,287,409,419 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 1,571,033 Oct 30, 2023 1.06% 1,244,650,894 iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 1,359,579 Oct 30, 2023 0.91% 1,077,126,462 JP Morgan Equity Income Fund 1,263,590 Sep 29, 2023 0.85% 1,001,079,177 Vanguard Index-Value Index Fund 1,152,170 Sep 29, 2023 0.77% 912,806,682 Investment Company Of America 981,655 Sep 29, 2023 0.66% 777,716,173
The Hierarchical and Meshed labyrinth of investments backing up these visibly public corporations traded on Wall Street make it virtually impossible for any of the government regimes searching for Family Trust sourced tax windfalls to figure out. So they print more money and also go after the easy to sport middle class and upper-middle class tax payers, many of which are independent crypto investors, where these self enriching govt regimes promote the idea the ' tax avoidance money laundering' is happening. To transform a phrase from the Lion King it truly is the "Circle of Shite". ;)
AS of 2 hours ago Jan 11th: 2024 12:40pm EDT.
Bitcoin
$46,529
spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were off to a remarkable start as trading officially began on Jan. 11 with a total volume of around $1.6 billion just minutes after the opening bell.
The movement comes on the heels of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs begin trading on Cboe, NYSE Arca and Nasdaq
"Leading the pack of 11 currently registered ETFs are Grayscale (GBTC), Blackrock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC) and Ark (ARKB), whose capitalizations at the time of this article’s publication were around $667.55 million, $475.6 million, $291.1 million, and $117.8 million, respectively." -cointelegraph
Second Question?
Who wins big in the BTC part of the Cryptosphere because of BTC ETF Approvals?
Imo BTC Hodlrs stand to win JUST ONCE, as I am sure the issuers of BTC ETFs wont worry too much about how much Bitcoin they actually hold after their first wildly published attempt to nab some real bitcoin (they already hold a bunch as BTC WHALES so this is a smoke screen) and instead, these BTC ETF issuers back their BTC ETF positions 100% with different forms of liquid US $ holdings, including US dollars and US $ Stablecoins.
Clearly the FIAT WHALES in the know powered the first day of Blackrock ETF BTC SPOT trading, to maker sure it was success for 1 day, time will tell.
Third Question?
Who gains the least (or loses out) , namely the average crypto investor, and surprisingly how are CBDC projects impacted by this BTC ETF News?
Well marginal crypto projects adding not much value other than casino table speculation offers to play to investors will continue to top the #shitcoin list and many will #zombie out completely with nothing behind them beyond a website and some marketing spin doctor and a fork of somebody else's blockchain tech re-labelled and re-white papered.
Think junk bonds of the 1920s and you more or less have it right as to what a shitcoin provides you as a return. Really these shitcoin have become semi private gambling tables a lot like the penny stock markets of the day. One knows who they are gambling against daily when one places your buy and sell order as small time investors and project developers try to 'out fox' each other.
Those DEFI ERC20 lending players truly 'digging in' to take on the traditional bank lenders in the ERC20 DEFI space offering lower rates to crypto Hodlrs looking to buy a house or lease a vehicle are likely to win in the short and medium term with 1, 2 and 3 year lending/mortgage rates that are measurably lower than the traditional lenders (Banksters and 2nd Mortgage lenders of FIAT) to truly expand monthly disposable income of the borrower to not just survive but also get ahead a bit. Of course the only hitch is the amount and type of collateral demanded by these DEFI lenders.
That said, DEFI borrowers need to be wise crypto investors in projects to support the TVL Total Value Locked 'collateralized' amount that gets them their loan from the DEFI lender at a cheaper rate than what the banksters offer.
That means wise DEFI borrowers need to also be wise crypto project investors who invest in projects which truly generate net new sustainable Main Street Value and,
not just be caught investing in another 'me to' smart contract financial algorithm DEFI lending play that no one really understands, but sort of sounds cool, so 'I'll try it out'.
As far as #CBDCs go, these projects country by country are now mired in bureaucratic red tape as they have been sidelined by governments now tasking their big banks and companies with new 'anti laundering' cyber security measures, which is really rich, since all of them are involved in racketeering at a grand scale 1000X larger than the current value of the Cryptosphere.
As such the Jan. 10th 2024 SEC approval of the Blackrock introduction of BTC ETFs will get the 'me to' govts of the world to in all likelihood, 'park' their CBDC efforts so they too, can joint the 'taxation gravy train' BTC ETFs promise to afford, which might in fact seal the CBDC fate as envisioned by #BIS and all their member government Central Banks worldwide.
In closing, my 2024 and Beyond Prediction for BTC ETF Impact of the CryptoSphere is generally as follows:
BTC ETF Issuers will back most of their positions with US dollars and US Stablecoins when their term is up.
Many uneducated traditional investors will get sucked into investing in BTC ETFs and find their exits paid in FIAT U dollars with less buying power and their effective ROI will actually be reduced by what ever the REAL inflation rate has been over their BTC ETF term, which the last five years, ignoring government propaganda and bogus CPI numbers is more like 10% per year. That means BTC ETF investors are going to need to seed BTC in the next year double in value to BTC US $100K to make their 100K US $ investment be worthwhile 12 months later when they exit and hope that inflation stays under 10%.
Hyper Inflationary Depression will rob SPT BTC ETF investors of 20% or more of their ROI end of 2024 and Beyond
Given many of the alt economy experts explain we are heading into a Hyper Inflationary Depression, that doubling in BTC price might not be enough for BTC ETF investors, if True inflation soars and the value of the US $ drops because Main St. demand, which is currently shrinking at 10% per year, reflected in alt economists saying GDP Gross Domestic Product is actually shrinking 10% the past couple of years, well,
The smart crypto investor has to ask are ETF BTCs even worth the trouble and also ask
Why should I sell my BTC to these types in the first place?
Otherwise imo,
those altcoin projects anchored on BTC , like Ethereum and all the related ERC20 plays out there
are wise to steer clear of converting altcoin value to US Stablecoins to buy into SPOT BTC ETFs , and buy BTC directly instead to keep the Bedrock of the Cryptosphere firmly in place.
Invest wisely my crypto investor colleagues, in something other than BTC ETFs.
That's all for now, thanks for checking in! ;)
TK over and out
PS- The #Optimism Rebase algo seems to be protecting past earnings for TKO Report writings on Publish0x,
All good for now. ;)
