*Yes, been a while since we updated here, so here it is.
The below statement in bold is what we attempted to tackle with a rolling series of articles.
*This is a follow up to the first two iterations where we pondered what it would take to launch BTC into a new mega bull run. Not crypto. Bitcoin. This is not financial advice. These are merely ideas, analyses, and thoughts from someone without an MBA nor member of any special Wall Street club or group. Nothing more.*
The bottom portion of this article contains all the prior outputs. We are not hiding from any of that but will place it down below for formating and ease of use purposes. We extracted the original list of six items which will be used throughout this update.
1. Flush The System Of Grifter, Charlatan Scammers
We wouldn't technically declare that this is complete, because there are still plenty of scammers still floating around the "crypto" universe. However, in terms of sending a message the market can see that the market will punish mercilessly even if the Department of Justice lets off easy people like SBF and all his buddies in DC for whom he laundered billions. Time is running out to launch another Terra Luna and get "experts" to tattoo your logo on themselves. The jig is up.
2. Accept What Ethereum Is And Is Not
We would say this is making fairly steady progress. The below chart depicts "the flippening" the Eth cultsters tend to preach about endlessly. Doesn't look like it is on track.
As Bitcoin makes its way more and more into society, one must wonder about what contribution Ether is making towards society. Apparently the latest craze is the ERC404 where Ethereans admittedly acknowledge that consensus and decentralization were tossed aside.
Ether is not dead. But, is it gaining momentum? "Tokenized Real World Assets" is perking up again, seemingly along with the Bitcoin ETF and perhaps a more positive overall tone towards "crypto". We are ALL ABOARD tokenizing the world. No hesitations. However, this does not REQUIRE Ethereum. Tezos can get it done a lot cheaper and a lot easier.
3. Witness The Death of High Profile VC Cult Copycat Scam Chains
Another outage for Solana recently. Cardano still . . . . . . . . . promising the universe just give them a few more months to get it all set up. The below perhaps captures where we are:
We highly doubt, over an extended time frame, that institutions and large players will continue to mess around with this garbage and try to build on top of it. Time will tell. So, in terms of our official statement from the first article in this series, no . . . . . not all of these chains are literally dead yet. But, from the standpoint of Bitcoin separating from this nonsense, we are comfortable saying yes that mission is already underway and not turning back.
4. Turn The Tables On ESG Cult
This is complete. Tables have been turned. ESG Cult still exists, but the tables have been turned. The market continues to roar out loud on this. Countless wind and solar projects have been sidelined due to the absurd assumptions that money is free and subsidies can and will exist in perpetuity.
We are seeing more "regular people" and almighty "scholars" look at Bitcoin as a way to help rather than hinder the environment and climate.
5. Real Wage Growth
This is not back on track. We are seeing more people take on two jobs and more part time jobs created, but not a credible force of momentum to get more money sloshing around the pockets of average Americans. When you look at delinquencies and defaults on car payments and credit cards, we could argue this is WORSE off than when we started this series.
You'll know when this is on its way back. That will be when everyone and their brother is talking about "getting more Bitcoin" or trading Bitcoin and/or stocks with the extra cash they have.
6. Market Emphatically Prices In No More Rate Hikes
Equities soared relentlessly when JPow verbally pivoted (which he tried to retract). But, did stocks really soar? How many stocks soared, or was it mainly a few very critical stocks?
Nonetheless - our sense is that the market is about 95% convinced there will be no more hikes, but the exact timing of an actual pivot to include rate cuts and more remains elusive. Yellen plays footsie with the auctions and UST refi schedules and shuffling of the chairs on the Titanic. JPow and others suggest more is needed to fight inflation. The ten year pokes back above 4.00%. Timing on cuts gets kicked out further each time a "hopeful" data point comes out or another Fed official jawbones.
One thing we will say is that jawboning is still working and buying them some time. Our original article stated the market needed to "emphatically" price in no more rate hikes. We still await this which we expect to manifest in Bitcoin and the futures markets dramatically pulling forward the expected rate cuts in size and magnitude. Fed said BTFP is going bye bye and that RRP balance is heading towards zero as we speak. NYCB is toast and more regional banks will go down. It's like we are watching it in real time yet still waiting for an "official" tap on the shoulder from Yellen and JPow.
After that, expect the chatter for YCC and QE to pick up significantly.
Meanwhile:
Did we absorb all the ETF moving and shaking with Grayscale, etc.? If so, what is next? What wall of sellers stands in the way?
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Here's a few recent relevant posts as well:
Bitcoin And Lightning Network Adoption
Bailouts, Credit Default Swaps, and Bitcoin
Can We Value Bitcoin Based On Credit Default Swaps - A Compelling Thought Experiment
Round 1 in italics, Part 2 underlined, update in normal text.
1. Flush The System Of Grifter, Charlatan Scammers
SBF. Lingham. Samani. Cardano guy. And the many, many more. Still need a more destructive beat down by the market. Nothing personal, just necessary. More progress will happen when the ecosystem participants stop falling for the "Yeah Bitcoin is great, but here look at my shiny new token and how it is better" affinity scams and other tactics they use. They grift off of Bitcoin and impede overall progress.
Update: Making progress here. SBF is in the can and it is quite obvious multiple politicians are connected to this money laundering. Samani is getting sued in what may be just the tip of the iceberg considering Solana keeps crashing like the pile of trash it is.
Update to the Update: Samani blowing up other people's cash:
Update: Fairly confident this horse is out of the barn and is about to hit its stride heading into the first turn. Only going to get worse from here for the scammers, grifters, and charlatans.
2. Accept What Ethereum Is And Is Not
Long past the time when the market needs to finally accept what Ethereum is and is not. They tried the DAO in 2017. Emperor Buterin turned back the clock and recreated history to bail out cronies. Now, the code hasn't been written yet for stakers to be able to unstake. Yup, sure is decentralized isn't it. Gone from the POW game now. In this piece titled "The Submerge" we highlighted the numerous structural issues with The Merge, much to the chagrin of the Ether fan boys. "Just wait until the xxxxx upgrade!!!!" How many more times will folks fall for this?
Update: Vitalik seems to be awful quiet on Twitter these days. Gensler is basically screaming from the rooftops that the only one that does not appear to be a security is Bitcoin. Google recently chose to give Tezos a real good look and that was after dabbling with Ethereum and Solana. New video below that is very useful:
Update: In progress, but the Ether cult is still pretty strong. Confident though now that at a minimum the perception is shifting.
3. Witness The Death of High Profile VC Cult Copycat Scam Chains
Solana. Cardano. Polygon. Ripple (seriously?). Polkadot. And the rest of them. Solana finally imploding might be the most effective shot fired if we had to choose one. Seeing SBF behind bars, though perhaps an emotional jolt to some, won't pave the way for clear skies ahead. All of these scam coins pumping VC bags are a major drag. The SEC is now reinforcing its message that regulation and enforcement is coming. It's only a matter of time before the next major hack or exploitation or meltdown like LUNA and FTX to set the whole market back again.
Update: In progress as we speak.
Update: Same. Will get much worse from here and pick up momentum. Genie out of the bottle for sure.
4. Turn The Tables On ESG Cult
Bitcoin will boil the oceans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank you for that gaslighting Senator Warren and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez. Now, let's see what the mature adults have to say. Bitcoin can turn environmentally harmful waste from energy production into value. Bitcoin can turn literal trash at a dump into value. Can you do that Senator Warren merely by tweeting out propaganda? We didn't think so.
When the masses realize and understand that not only is Bitcoin not harmful to the environment, but it is rather very helpful to the environment - this is a game changer. Just look at BlackRock now with its clients telling them they have had enough of the ESG Cult and forced "climate change" wokeness. Bitcoin is also Digital Energy.
Update: In progress here. Nice work here recently from Bitcoin Magazine on the ESG nonsense.
Update: Well on its way. ESG in general is being flushed down the toilet by the markets and investment community for the garbage lunacy that it is and always was. We consider this complete from the context of the market tossing it aside, notwithstanding rants from AOC and little paid shill Greta. Furthermore - the concept of converting excess/wasted/toxic energy into value is something that will define this century.
5. Real Wage Growth
See below. Hey, look at that. Ever since Biden took over, real wages have been negative in America. Kind of tough to throw a few bucks at some NFTs or a weekly deposit into a crypto account when the Average Joe in America is struggling just to keep up with inflation. GameFi for example, heavily relies on its projected participants having disposable income.
Update: No progress here other than CNBC cheerleaders doing their thing.
Update: Got a long ways to go here. That said, a new bull can emerge and begin without this, but in our view the retail momo and craze can't catch fire until people have extra cash sloshing around - duh.
6. Market Emphatically Prices In No More Rate Hikes
Don't "have to" get the proverbial "Fed Pivot" or literal announcements of YCC (Yield Curve Control, which is coming) or QE or whatever new acronym they create. Just need the market, not the Ivory Tower geniuses, to tell us as investors no more hikes are coming - with emphasis. This removes the guillotine hanging above the "Risk On" trade and like it or not for a little while more BTC will be either Risk On or Risk Off.
Update: We would characterize this as a see-saw at the moment. In recent weeks more hawkish chatter has picked up regarding some sort of number for the 2YR to hit or FFR before the rate hikes stop, perhaps something around 6%. There are also plenty of participants in the "let's get this over with" camp expecting YCC and some of the things we have been consistently stating for years now. Perhaps there is a need to officially "be in a recession" to give the Fed the political cover, just as the Treasury's projections unravel along with a debt ceiling kabuki theatre performance from the heroes in DC.
Conclusion: Tracking. Not perfect, but grinding away towards a new frontier.
Update: In our humble view, this HAS taken place. The market, not the self proclaimed geniuses on TV, is telling us the Fed is not only done hiking/QT but has already launched Stealth QE with a lot more to come.
Conclusion: A new bull market is underway. Doesn't mean it goes to the moon immediately. The trend has changed and there will be dips and plunges and nobody knows what geopolitical surprises are in store for us all. We would characterize this as shifting to Bull, but still plenty of grinding it out work to do.
Bonus:
We like explosive impulse moves on big volume to initiate a major trend change.
