This post checks in on overall Bitcoin adoption and more specifically adoption and integration of the Lightning Network. To be clear and reiterate again - our stance is that likely no more than 1-2 L1 chains survive and possibly 2-4 over the long term. Layer 2 and beyond is where people "will see all the stuff Bitcoin can do" and gain a further understanding of the disruptive nature of the technology. Our view is that the Lightning Network works and firms are already building on it. Seems silly to attempt to build a business or wealth on top of dubious copycat scam chains when there is a rock solid option already present. People and entities push affinity scams like Civic and Solana because they are more concerned with enhancing their own stature than they are concerned with building something that helps society as a whole.
Here are a few related posts published previously on this platform:
When Will Bitcoin Enter A New Bull Market?
List Of Companies With Bitcoin Lightning Network Integration
The chart below, courtesy of Glassnode, compares the exchange rate of BTC with BTC balances on exchanges and the amount of Bitcoin that has NOT moved in more than ten years. Ten years is a long time folks. These HODLers in particular appear to be very determined and stubborn. What would actually get them to sell?
You can see that the amount of Bitcoin held for more than ten years exceeds the amount available on exchanges. This highlights the HODLer mentality and focus, scarcity element people tend to overlook at times, and the long standing question of how much BTC is truly "available for sale" when considering HODLers and participants seeking a long term Store of Value. The boogie man as well let's not forget includes the unknown quantity of BTC lost forever from the early days primarily.
The chart below shows long term trends of how many Bitcoin Addresses have a certain amount of BTC stored on them at a minimum. What jumps out are two things mainly to us:
- Over a long term time frame, more wallets are holding BTC. This is a fact. Addresses are rising for all dollar levels.
- There appears to be a surge and resurgence in recent months.
Below we see some actual Lightning Network data from a firm focused entirely on building on the BTC Lightning Network. As you can see the number of Lightning payments on Wallet of Satoshi has more than doubled from 2022 to 2023 looking at February/March time periods. This is during a brutal bear market where the fraudsters and scammers have been poisoning the public discourse on why Bitcoin should or should not be adopted.
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