ETF crypto winter - Bitcoin divides into two separate but unequal markets

Cypherpeople we love y'all !  Thanks be to the mighty mighty Publish0X as always, let's pretend we never did that blackpill JET review. Could we once just... not...sorry Igor, man. 

Dear readers will remember BTC ETFs have given the fiat printing MMT governments a magic hammer to pound the living hell out of BTC price runs- excuse us, we meant to say to CONTROL the bitcoin market to make it a better place for everyone.  Well, safe for wall street/city profits. But arguably better for all except degen 100xers praying for insane volatility.  Ya know, a show of stability and predictability for all. 

Yes, we all danced when BTC ripped up post ETF - for one good reason.  The borg that is Merica finally assimilated BTC, BTC will never ever be banned now, let us sing brothers and sisters.  The Chicago Merc has opened up a huge source of daily funding - something  like 10% vig is skimmed off clients that buy the BTC ETFs through fees, annual charges, rolling those contracts every damn time.   At the same time, a giant Scrooge Mc Duck wall of money pouring into the hard money of 21MM BTC is now diverted away forever into paper bitcoin.  Feck, even Grayscale is making noises like they have lost their souls and will move to  ETFs. 

Hey research boys n girls !  Let's do the maths like a job test!!! POP QUIZ BRAINIAC QUANTS!! Q: How much did ETFs actually depress the BTC market?   ANSWER MF - welllllp,  btc was chilling at 61.5K when ProShares started sucking over a billion dollars forever out of BTC, the fastest growing evil pos ETF ever.  That's about 5% of that whole day's volume, 100% all upside taken out right out behind the barn and shot dead.  ??  Plus our boys at Glassnode say only 20% of all bitcoins are liquid at all, so one BTC ETF in two days stole the cashflow of ~ an entire percentage point of all the BTC in the world for sale.   74597e8f8f7d1b5a5a3f98aa3f8f49d80f284385bc197712d17f2842abd235dc.png

Think that might have dragged the market down just a bit?   no, really it was the leverage MMT monkeys could now get on their spend to kick BTC down.  Sell those BTC calls *100,000x boys, we got a printing press hooked to Batman's turbo engine eb7577706de778b8b1da1f0aa3c812537f9107c2f66a94a3e094c995ced5bd09.png

Predictably - to all the gold bugs that have been feeling governmental price controls for around a century now - BTC prices promptly slid back down into the crypto winter of 2021.  Now, we chop along in price bands - and more importantly, watching the market we can all see the market manipulation now.   One more factoid?  the CME just this year  2022 became the largest BTC futures exchange - at only 20% of the market - plz don't forget OKex in China and the gang.  Hell, the total market cap of all the BTC can't stay above 1 trillion - but the BTC global futures market passed that in open volume back in 2020.   

to be clear, ETFs are pure evil.  The classic wall street slur says " Hey, we are all trapped on a desert island.  Quick -smartest guys make bets on our survival instead of working."    BS, Not really true with old world stocks n bonds - kids, intelligent short & long term capital markets allocation is hypercritical, and never done at all well by centralized planners.  

But for ETFs?  totally true, mom dad don't touch it.  67d32947d18c2014bc93934d3d5d9ef26efeee398c8789c82d22e048a48770f2.pngBack when we were bright eyed punk kids in Detroit City watching downtown burn, the money spent on a stock actually vaguely tenuously supplied a company with capital for operations and expansion.  We could believe in the system!!!  Even skipping over Cantillion stock buybacks, 100% of the money given to an ETF funds never helps anyone but the CME and service vultures do anything.   More importantly, the CME, and OKex,  created an infinite supply of paper BTC to sell to the world. 

Well played, masters of the universe!  see BTC prices dancing to Wall Street's tune.  Prices don't move over the weekend, only at the start of each 8AM CME day, BTC moves to wherever it will move that day.  Let's face it, as feds around the world have been doing for gold and bonds and equities, we can see the market manipulation in strange movements. 

The classic gambit - bitcoin takes a significant move downward ( during CME hours) .  Then some policy shock is announced that is clearly good for bitcoin.  Bitcoin struggles up, but mostly just makes back what it recently lost.  WTF was that?  Can't unsee it. 

So is all lost?  no, just another mixed round for the forces against BTC.  Why ?  because the BTC market is now two totally different markets

One is the controlled, "the trend is your friend" short term capital markets trading desk trip.   Wahey ! we are headed up to the top of the band!  Sell out, kick it all down, and do it again, it's not as deep as a well.  Teams of disciplined ex-jocks do it globally every market day.    News (or high quality central bank agitprop) moves this ETF market, in suspicious ways as above. 

But the other market, the lower, slower market, is still there baby, like an underground river.  The actual bitcoin being traded by real people, with long term hodl plans, still chugs along.  The "real" bitcoin market is stunningly shallow.  EG:  recent discovery of a seven year old  nine-figure USD BTC wallet selling moves the market.   But all network effect indicators, except maybe WBTC, are steady green wonderlands of good news while the media cries out for negative BTC spin.  The last blacknblue pill try by the FT(Lex)  and the WSJ was SUCH a weak narrative - OK crypto is decoupling up ya but the more regulation boogeyman gonna getcha bwah. 

It's not even close to all over.  The market has broken every price fix every time, it just takes a while, ask the bank of England.  btc aint like gold, as those fleeing actual war this month know when they have to leave the metal bars and run.  How do we see the real, actual BTC market ?  Higher lows, people, higher lows.   

Cause remember, each and every time the fiat printing Fed banks slide funds to their pet banks to hammer down the BTC futures in " secret", when they shoot they shoot to kill they smack BTC down just as hard as they f-cking possibly can.  They want so bad to kill BTC, the central bank gangstas want no contesting on the monopoly on money.    The smarter members of the big arms war machine dealers also know in their bones they love fresh printed money to feed eternal war/another great quarter for Raytheon.    It's nothing personal, just bidness.  Get your latest edition of "Jane's" military catalogs now !  tank sales are way down, but  the hot story is giving two sides of teenage white christian boys NLAWs and javs beating all known armor while we cheer and observe.  Replace  those played out MiGs on easy war terms, no money down!! Give long range sniper cannons to the Ukraine ladies  versus urban conflict AK-47s held by Russian teenies!! Cheer to fight a proxy war to the last drop of blood in honor of the FOUR HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS in market cap of  the big four defense contractors.

Sorry, meant to say, breakfast is the most important meal of the day.   so it used to be the feds could hammer BTC down under 30K.   Then it took the ETFs play to  get it down to the mid thirties.  Now the world has absolutely gone to insanity and they can't get BTC to lay down and stay down below 37K.   Even Lex says real crypto winter looks way unlikely judging by all the new banks and big players offering crypto services.  Two markets - one with whale walls keeping us range bound, trying to beat down the weak hands, controlling the upside, trying to bring the downside,    But one real, still free market,  laughing at the regulatory FUD, controlling the bedrock higher lows of BTC.  Tell us some more about how it's gonna go to zero and be banned, do tell us.    Keep the baby faith, peace love and the 0x upward n ownward!!!


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Dave Sawyer
Dave Sawyer

National Merit got this punk rocker to Oberlin, and Wall Street fintech gave up world tours and an NYU MBA. I am a Bitcoin true believer. Bitcoin is deeply revolutionary in a way we always prayed tech would be. Keep the baby Faith!

Accelerationist Shit Show - buy Bitcoin NOW
Accelerationist Shit Show - buy Bitcoin NOW

Face it. The geopolitical world is going down hard in a blaze of money printing. America freaking out makes the world freak out, burning cities, riots and total polarization while the MMT monkeys at the Fed make the printers go brrrrrrt as we whack the world economy with Covid. Join us as we go crawlin thru the wreckage. A lot of things that were going good just stalled hard. A lot of things going bad are getting there faster and faster. to quote Nina Hagen, FUTURE is NOOOOWWWW!!!!

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