G'day All

It's been awhile since my past post, at that point I was looking for an ending diagonal to complete a corrective, however that diagonal pattern never formed. I think instead of a diagonal we formed a related pattern, a triangle...

A triangle at that location meant that we were dealing with a triangle in a b-wave position. So I can understand that a lot of people were bearish after that rally, after all, it is not possible to count an impulse from the lows (five waves up), we only printed three waves up. And three waves up is corrective and that is bearish according to the EW books, and that is certainly possible in this instance.

However, if you remember I stated on December 4th that I will try to count upward. So that is what I will do now, and yes, an upward count CAN start with a zigzag, that is actually what I speculated about in my previous update.  After all, the entire bull run of XRP consist of zigzags, there's NO impulse to be seen on the bigger picture chart, only a collection of zigzags, always stated that and sticking with that idea. 

Ok, enough talk... let me show a chart :

December turned out to be another frustrating month for XRP holders. While holding you did get some SOLO tokens though (distribution to follow). While I had nothing better to do I took the free SOLO but I am not expecting that much from it. 
Anyways, we did see the XRP price briefly over 1 dollar (thanks the SOLO airdrop, that was the narrative anyways) but it is followed by a deep retrace. It is very obvious that we have three waves up from the low, count what you see and not what you are hoping for. Three waves up (a zigzag) can fit in a bullish count if this zigzag is from the lowest degree, if so it will be followed by another zigzag (Y) from that same degree, and those double (or optional triple) zigzags will give us the W of the next degree, then after an X pullback we could start to see more interesting price movement. It is also possible that the zigzag from the recent low is the start of an upward diagonal , that is an alternate for now...

Let me show the big picture it might be helpful to understand this very complex count :

So the primary count speculates that we started with upward zigzags for wave Y of the blue degree, needless to say that the December low must hold for this count to be correct. An alternate bullish count is that we are at the start of a fifth wave of an expanding diagonal.

The count is so complex that it remains pure speculation at this point, the belief in the count will have to grow, and that can only happen if the price rises in the next couple of weeks.   

That's all for now. Take care!