Today I studied the charts for several hours because I wanted to come with a solution for the pretty confusing price action the last couple of days.
The good news is that I think I may have found that solution and I will present it to you in this update, the bad news is that if my study is correct some more pain is coming for the XRP holders. Can you still handle it?
So anyways, based on my study I am no longer counting upward, I think that the X or 4th wave (in case of diagonal) is still in progress. Bummer.
As you may remember I thought we were in a triangle that would thrust upward, it appears now that we may have been in a triangle, but that we broke down from the triangle structure :
Since the conclusion of the triangle we printed 5 waves down, probably an a wave of the next downward zigzag. As you can see the (a) of 4 (another triangle structure) backtested the triangle trendline. If this idea is correct we could now see a bounce for b that will probably break out of the channel. Then we must expect another c leg lower. That c leg could potentially end the correction.
So how does this fit in the bigger picture :
We connected the lows previously and that trendline failed to hold us on the recent selloff. A bad sign, and probably an indication that some more pain could be on the radar.
It could mean that the double zigzag becomes a triple zigzag formation. The triangle is then another X and now we must count down from that point. So far that idea has worked (see above).
How much downside? Difficult to say, but I will try count from where we are. The triangle has a measured move to around 52cents, that is a level that was tested twice last summer. Keep in mind that the downmove could extend in a double or triple zigzag.
Okay, that's all for now...