Good morning

The structure since the June low can be bullish (an expanding diagonal) or bearish (triple zigzag correction for a higher degree "X"), I have talked enough about that in my previous updates, and the next couple of days it should become clear what path we are going to follow (unfortunately it cannot be determined by the waves, because there is structurally no difference).

Both scenarios were pointing upward however, so that is why buying inside the Golden Box® was very low risk.

One key thing in my analysis was that a diagonal can NOT end before September 24th (please check previous updates if you want to know why). IF a move ends before that date it will be NO diagonal but it will count as a bearish triple zigzag, this simple rule could show us the correct path in the next couple of days. Also, there is a bit of a timing issue in regards to the big picture because the diagonal in the big picture should end in early October. So there has to be a massive moon at the end of September OR we will print a lower low.

Now let us look at the recent price action. Unfortunately I lost all my XRP-charts on the CoinTrader platform, strange because it was linked to my twitter account. Shit happens and I had to start from scratch. Personally I would have liked to see a move that slightly broke above the diagonal trendline, followed by a correction - but instead we got a FOMO move, we came close to 55 cents. This however can NOT be the end of the expanding diagonal because we are too early. This can however be the end of the triple zigzag correction and could work as a complete higher degree "X" and from there we could tank to a lower low. From the recent low I now count a double zigzag, so optionally there is room for an additional upward zigzag to complete the diagonal after September 23rd, but there is no guarantee this move is gonna come. As you can feel, there is quite a bit of risk at this point.

As far as I know there is no fundamental reason for the upside, Ripple hasn't settled with the SEC, it hasn't won the lawsuit, no switch was flipped. XRP has ignored the weak stock market for now, but if stock market prints a lower low that could be a catalyst for crypto to also print lower lows. 

All things considered I think the bearish scenario is a bit more likely at this point, but hopefully I am wrong.  Fact is that buying side the Golden Box® has given you enormous profit.

Let me end this post with a look at the bigger picture :

We did break the declining trendline, and that was probably the catalyst for the FOMO move. Current move reminds me a bit of the move that started the rise in 2020 - it was also a move that looked like a diagonal, however in this structure it was clear it could not work as a diagonal from early on, but also in this case the Z wave was a heavy thrust to end the pattern. But as of now, we still have a potential diagonal here at the bottom and we have to respect that structure, it just can not finish here & now.

So needless to say the next couple of days are very important. What do you think? Is the low in OR will we print a lower low first? You can let me know what you think by voting in my twitter poll. You still have some time to vote because at this point it can still go either way.

Good luck to all of us.

Chat soon.