Good morning
I noticed that a lot of people were upset with my last update as I was expecting some more downside. When I wrote that post sentiment was pretty bullish and we did go up as expected to finish the flat wave. But then Sunday afternoon the "FTX hacker" showed up and started dumping bags of ETH and crypto markets did take a pretty big dive since then.
Are we really dealing with the FTX hacker here? It's the narrative, it's probably not what is actually happening, but the narrative is bearish and why would you buy with such a big dumping going on? Certainly a good opportunity for the big players to bring the crypto markets down some more, and hopefully a good buying opportunity for people like us.
The cover of The Economist above adding some fuel to the ongoing crypto storm.
Anyways, the recent price action fits with my idea in my last update :
The c wave of the flat actually failed to go over a, another lower high - that's another truncation and a sign of weakness there. From that point we have only three waves down, so that makes me think we could be in a diagonal for wave a of the next zigzag. The idea is that after the completion of the diagonal we would see a pop out of the diagonal and then a final drop for wave c. On even shorter time frame we would need to see overlap of the i low of the diagonal. Since iii is bigger then i we are probably in an expanding structure though with v the longest wave.
As I stated in my previous update, Thursday is 589 days after the April 2021 high, it could be an important day for XRP. I am not obsessed with this day and I don't want to rush this zigzag wave, but it could be a violent & fast crash to our low. We'll see :
If the above count is correct it must be possible to connect 2 and 4 without cutting off any other candles, so this means you would have to go at least under 0,317 on this chart. While a truncation is possible, I personally don't see a point in accumulating above the June low price though. My secret target is 22/23 cents, but such low may not be seen on this exchange neutral tool. But maybe a good idea to put in some silly low orders, in moments of panic they could get filled on some exhanges.
Can the June low be the bottom? That remains possible but then you need another count for the big picture. The April 21 high as the end of a diagonal, don't like that idea though for several reasons. But that are worries for later...
That's all for now, good luck!
