G'day
When we printed our low in June I stated 2 things : this can be an important bottom OR this low can be followed by a bigger degree "X" bounce followed by a lower low (but not below 0,1767).
Fact : 89 days later we still don't know more.... Since the low a structure formed and that structure can be an expanding diagonal in the 1st wave position (bullish) OR a corrective triple zigzag for XX (bearish). We did waste 89 days on this structure as of today, and that is a bit of a shame because we know that wave 5 should not last more then 106 days (that is the length of wave 3 in the big picture and 5 must be shorter to respect the time ratio, very important in diagonals).
You understand that we have some timing issues in the bullish scenario, and that everything would have to go extremely fast at the end of September. Anything is possible I guess, but keep in mind that there is a bearish option as well. Or maybe my count in the big picture is not correct and we have more time? For now I will keep the count unchanged, it is the count that formed along the way and the count that I like best.
As you can see the June low ended wave Y on the orange degree, if the current structure is a triple zigzag this can be an XX, and that would allow for a lower low later this year - the double zigzag would then become a triple and that would be the end of the correction. The timer would reset to "0" and from there we would have 106 days to print that 5th wave.
But lets concentrate on the structure that formed since the low, it is a collection if zigzags - What can we expect if we are in an expanding diagonal - wave 5 will most likely overthrow the blue trendline and then we will see a correction that normally comes back in the diagonal, that correction does not have to take much time/price, it can, but it can also be a very brief correction (pretty common with diagonals at an important low)- a diagonal can be a very bullish base and a potential 3rd wave cannot cause degree issues, something you would have if wave 1 was a small impulse.
But if the structure is a triple zigzag we will probably also overthrow the trendline, but then price will tank to a new low from there.
You can see above that an overthrow of the current diagonal trendline will also break the yellow declining trendline - is that meaningful? Maybe, but it can also be a trap if we cannot keep our head above the line. A break & backtest is what I would like to see.
The recent price action, it was a bad week for the stock market and XRP also came down a bit. However as I posted on twitter earlier this week, I saw five waves up from the Golden Box® and the decline looked corrective to me. This is now confirmed because we printed a higher high today.
Price:time ratio is very important inside a diagonal so I don't want to see this diagonal finish before September 24th, if it does that would be an indication that we are dealing with a triple zigzag and NOT with a diagonal.
Anyways, It is nice to see some upward price action today. The low inside the Golden Box® has worked well and we are currently up 20% - not bad, especially if you took a leveraged position, I don't do this often but this was a nice opportunity to play a bit.
So we are in a interesting situation, I would certainly prefer a moon move, because my accumulation is done at this point. However if we go to ~48 cents and then turn back down to 22 cents or so, I will not be surprised and will be ready to accumulate some more. All things considered is the bearish outcome maybe a bit more likely because of the timing issues we have and because of the current state of the stock market (only 3 waves up from low, so the only bullish potential for stock market is a diagonal, else it will print lower lows).
How you play this, it's up to you... but hopefully I will know more in the next update....
Have a good one!!
