G'day

Hope all is well on your side. It appears our downward zigzag has indeed ended early in the new Year and some sort of bottom is in place. Is it THE bottom or will there be another x bounce? Impossible to know this for sure, our bounce is not big enough to rule out another x. But things look pretty good, several coins have made very nice moves from the lows. Accumulation in December & early January certainly played out well so far.

Projects that I personally accumulated in that period include HBAR ALGO EPX DAG ENJ LCX LINK OP ICP ATOM GLMR CSPR CRV ENS FLOW LDO HNT GALA and some others that I forget here. My last XRP purchase was at the June lows though, XRP truncated at the lows and did not give me a chance to add more. However some very small orders that were still in place filled on the January flash crash candle, only a couple of hundred though, not the amount that I had planned to add.

Recent XRP price action

If we take a look at the recent price action since the bottom it appears that we are working on an abc up, that can be bullish if this zigzag is part of a diagonal. It would be nice to see a diagonal here, a very bullish structure seen at major bottoms... but the diagonal needs to form in every detail. In June we were also tracking a potential expanding diagonal from the bottom, but that structure eventually failed and became a triple zigzag fitting in a bearish scenario.  Needless to say an upward zigzag can also fit in a bearish scenario! It appears b was a running triangle and back-tested the old downward channel from the potential final zigzag in the decline.  I think wave c is nearing completion so I am expecting a bigger correction soonish :

If this zigzag forms as accepted it could be the "1" of a new diagonal structure, probably contracting, we have to see if such a structure forms in the next couple of days/weeks, it is 100% speculation from my side at this point.

Huge Test for The Big Picture 

The big test for my big picture count (expanding diagonal) is that the 5th wave has to stay shorter in time (and longer in price) then the 3rd. Wave 3 took 107 days, so this means that if we start counting from January 2nd the fifth should complete before April 19th and complete the diagonal structure that started  in 2020 IF we have bottomed. Hard and simple.

If we don't have a new high by that time the count is wrong OR we still have some more downside to go for wave 4. That also means that if we are in a smaller diagonal right now it cannot waste too much time. The big upward/moon move would come after completion of that diagonal. Again, pure speculation at this point. Anyways, if all goes well it means that we have to expect a cycle high fairly soon for XRP, in the first part of the year. What will come after it? More about that later, it is too early ....

Flare Airdrop 

Flare airdrop was finally done a couple of days ago, well only 15% was dropped to people taking part in the snapshot more then 2 years ago. There was a lot of Flare hype before the snapshot with expensive looking video productions etc, but after the snapshot it became very quiet. But in the meantime Flare has changed the rules and delayed the airdrop several times and in their latest proposal (FIP.01) people taking snapshot will not get more then 15%, the remaining 85% will be dropped to people that wrap & delegate Flare in the next 36 months, also to new investors that did not take part in the initial snapshot. This proposal will most likely pass and it feels to me like they used the XRP community to get the attention, and now they aren't keeping their promises made in those days.  I can understand people sold their FLR right away. I personally wrapped & delegated the FLR I received, I will earn some passive income and some FLR will be added from the upcoming monthly airdrops. But I have no big expectations for this project. But all the best to the project, I have a little bag so I hope they surprise me, it's free money so if it goes to "zero" it won't hurt much. At least the airdrop came at a good moment when crypto markets looking stronger . It can't be much worse then Songbird I assume....

That's all for now...

Take good care!