G'day
It has been awhile since we've been in touch, sorry for that, but the fact is that the last couple of weeks were kinda boring and I used my time for some other things, I spend more time outdoors and away for my trading desk. I am here for a moon move, and we knew that such a move was not going to come anytime soon. But it is time to wake up and take some more attention to the charts because it appears the final crash is now in progress.
June was an interesting period as we potentially put in an important low. It was followed by an interesting expanding structure, it looked like a diagonal but that diagonal failed and at the end of September I lost my believe in a moon move, you can check my post from that sad day : XRP EW Update 28/09/2022 Diagonal Fails, Moon Delayed
Since that day I still had the believe we could move a bit higher, but that it would set up a trap before moving to a new low. Well it turns out the September high was never taken out - we came close in October though, and I assume that is where the corrective ended, in a truncation. A truncation complicates the count, because it remains an assumption that the X of higher degree ended there. A truncation causes confusion, and that is what the markets likes to create and that is why it is pretty common to see it at important highs&lows. But anyways, that is where my downcount starts and in the bigger picture this is the final "Z" in this sequence.
Just like you I have been wondering what would cause the crash and this week we had bad news from 2 fronts: LBRY loosing it's case against the SEC and then the situation with FTX and the collapse of the FTT coin.
If we start counting from the truncated high we can clearly see 5 waves down and it was followed by a flat (3:3:5 structure) that also slightly truncated at the end. And from there things get ugly in a nasty c wave, now in progress. This down move (Z) can be a single zigzag but it can also become a double or a triple, I already said it before on this blog, my years of experience has learned me that the final zigzag in a set of zigzags is often a single abc structure. The fact that we had a pretty big "b" wave is another reason to believe that, because if we get a double it would need a pretty big x to connect both zigzags, it's not impossible though.
The big picture :
So a question that you will ask me, is that last "X" big enough... Well like I said above, I expected it to go a bit higher, but if you look on a log scale it gives a complete other image. So I think it is valid.
Then another good question, how low will and can we go? We must be able to connect the "2" and the "4" without cutting anything off so best case scenario is that we put in a truncated bottom around 0,31/0,32 - there is no point in accumulating above those prices, imho.
While this move can end in a truncation, it is certainly no guarantee, we will probably move below the June low but we cannot go below the September 2020 low.
In my next update I will concentrate more on the recent down move, but I hope this update puts on back on track so that we are ready for what is coming, an important low for XRP.
Good luck.
