Good morning,

When we bottomed in June I stated "this can be an important bottom OR this can be followed by a higher degree "X"". After awhile it became clear that we formed an expanding structure from that low consisting of zigzags. At that point I stated that this expanding structure could be "A Leading Diagonal in the 1st or A position (bullish)" OR "A triple zigzag for a higher degree X (bearish)". 

Today I have to say that I no longer believe in the leading diagonal and the bullish scenario. Why? Because the diagonal did not respect it's time:price ratio. It ended too early. The fifth wave should have lasted longer then the 3rd and this was not the case. Hard & simple! Also the fact that the fifth wave pushed much higher then anticipated was not a good sign, a diagonal normally pushes slightly above the trendline, then comes back inside the structure and then takes off, that would have been a healthy price action, now it behaved as a triple setting up a Z wave trap, like we've seen in the past.

I already showed the count last week of that complete triple zigzag, now we have some more downward price action since that high :

This is probably the start of a new downtrend, we have to see how that goes....  Another upward zigzag (of a higher degree) remains possible though, to give us a higher X, but I will no longer consider this as a diagonal wave - the diagonal is dead for me, and additional upside will be fitted in a bearish scenario.
In case you bought inside the golden box, you could have made 70% profit or so (best case scenario) - not bad. Did you take that profit or not, that's up to you. Of course I am not here for that kind of peanuts, but it was a nice play anyways. 

The bigger picture has now been updated with the additional zigzag in the downward direction, in the big picture the double has now become a triple, which means that this is the final zigzag in this sequence. How long will it last? And how long will it go? I don't know, but we cannot go below 0,176. 

The fact is that when 4 completes we have less then 106 days to complete 5, this means that 5 should be a violent reversal and while a diagonal at the bottom is very nice, the fact that it wasted so much time was indeed a bad sign. So maybe when we bottom we will have a fundamental reason for a reversal, maybe a resolution in the lawsuit or so.

Could we push a bit higher first? It is not impossible that the orange "X" extends a bit higher before we dive to new lows.

Meanwhile the stock market has also broken it's June low and I think we have more downside to go, however we could see a bounce fairly soon before going lower. Weakness in the stock market could be the catalyst for lower prices in crypto later this year.

That's all for now.

Take care,